thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
You brave. Last time I did something similar it shot moved 200 plus in 1 day. That was way back before the SP500.
I can still smell the burnt hairs on my doggy ass from that day....
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
I can still smell the burnt hairs on my doggy ass from that day....
SMCI wheel only - no stress, no drama, no FUD, can't lose (unless it goes bankrupt)
the #1 trick is to ALWAYS STICK TO THE PLAN; problems almost always happen if you deviate
you MUST have a plan - what is entry and what is exit
NVDA no options yet, too risky and prems too low
Tomorrow's Quad Witching options expiry is the largest in history, with $5.1 trillion in notional options exposure expiring, including $870 billion in single stock options.Entertainment guaranteed.
(Credit: StockTalk)
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Jim, does that usually caused the major stocks to make major movement since majority of option holder won't be exercising Call for examples.
Entertainment guaranteed.
View attachment 1058262
(Credit: StockTalk)
And that usually down or up?
Don’t know. I’ve read somewhere that it guarantees the market will trade in a $5 range but that was in jest. Prepare for the worst and play for the best
Here is Grok’s answer:
The implications of tomorrow's Quad Witching options expiry being the largest in history with $5.1 trillion in notional options exposure expiring, including $870 billion in single stock options, could potentially be significant. Here are some possible implications:
1. Increased Market Volatility: With such a large amount of options expiring, there could be increased volatility in the markets as traders and investors adjust their positions. This could lead to significant price swings in individual stocks and indices.
2. Potential for Market Manipulation: With such a large amount of options expiring, there is the potential for market manipulation. Large players could try to influence the market to their advantage, especially in the final hours before the expiry.
3. Impact on Market Liquidity: The large amount of options expiring could affect market liquidity. If a large number of options are exercised, it could lead to a surge in buying or selling activity, which could impact the liquidity of the underlying stocks.
4. Potential for Profit Opportunities: For traders and investors who can accurately predict the market's reaction to the expiry, there could be significant profit opportunities. However, this is a high-risk, high-reward scenario.
5. Impact on Market Sentiment: The market's reaction to the expiry could also influence market sentiment. If the expiry leads to a significant market move, it could influence investor confidence and sentiment towards the market.
6. Potential for Regulatory Scrutiny: Given the size of the expiry and the potential for market manipulation, there could be increased regulatory scrutiny of the options market and the participants.
7. Impact on Option Pricing: The large expiry could also impact option pricing. As the expiry approaches, the price of options could become more volatile as traders and investors adjust their positions.
8. Impact on Market Breadth: The expiry could also impact market breadth, or the number of stocks participating in a market move. If the expiry leads to significant moves in individual stocks, it could impact the breadth of the market.
9. Potential for Market Dislocation: If the expiry leads to significant market moves, it could lead to a dislocation in the market, where prices of different assets become disconnected from their underlying fundamentals.
10. Impact on Market Participants: The expiry could also have an impact on market participants, such as market makers, who could face significant risk exposure due to the large expiry.
Overall, the implications of tomorrow's Quad Witching options expiry being the largest in history are significant and could potentially lead to increased market volatility, potential for market manipulation, impact on market liquidity, profit opportunities, impact on market sentiment, potential for regulatory scrutiny, impact on option pricing, impact on market breadth, potential for market dislocation, and impact on market participants.
Here’s ChatGPT’s reply:
Overall, while Quad Witching itself is a regular event in the financial markets, the scale of the options expiry you mentioned ($5.1 trillion in notional exposure) suggests potentially larger-than-usual impacts on market movements and dynamics. Traders and investors typically watch such events closely for short-term trading opportunities and to gauge broader market trends.
Quad Witching refers to the expiration of four different types of financial derivatives: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. It typically occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Here are some implications of such a significant Quad Witching options expiry:
1. **Increased Volatility**: Large options expirations often lead to increased trading activity as investors adjust their positions. This heightened trading volume can cause increased volatility in the stock market, particularly in the stocks and indices involved in the expiring options.
2. **Impact on Stock Prices**: The expiration of options contracts can influence the prices of underlying stocks. For instance, if there are a significant number of call options (which give the right to buy) expiring on a particular stock, there might be upward pressure on the stock price as market makers and traders hedge their positions.
3. **Sector and Index Movement**: The expiration could affect broader market indices and sectors, especially if there are large positions in index options or futures expiring. This can lead to movements in indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, etc., depending on where the expiring positions are concentrated.
4. **Trading Strategies**: Traders and institutional investors may employ specific trading strategies around Quad Witching, such as delta hedging (adjusting positions to neutralize directional exposure), which can further impact short-term market dynamics.
5. **Liquidity Concerns**: During periods of heightened volatility, there can be concerns about liquidity, particularly in less actively traded stocks or options. This could lead to wider bid-ask spreads and potentially higher transaction costs.
6. **Market Sentiment**: Quad Witching can also be seen as a reflection of overall market sentiment and investor positioning, as it involves a significant amount of capital and could indicate shifts in investor sentiment depending on how positions are adjusted.
Overall, while Quad Witching itself is a regular event in the financial markets, the scale of the options expiry you mentioned ($5.1 trillion in notional exposure) suggests potentially larger-than-usual impacts on market movements and dynamics. Traders and investors typically watch such events closely for short-term trading opportunities and to gauge broader market trends.
Overall, while Quad Witching itself is a regular event in the financial markets, the scale of the options expiry you mentioned ($5.1 trillion in notional exposure) suggests potentially larger-than-usual impacts on market movements and dynamics. Traders and investors typically watch such events closely for short-term trading opportunities and to gauge broader market trends.
Quad Witching refers to the expiration of four different types of financial derivatives: stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. It typically occurs on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Here are some implications of such a significant Quad Witching options expiry:
1. **Increased Volatility**: Large options expirations often lead to increased trading activity as investors adjust their positions. This heightened trading volume can cause increased volatility in the stock market, particularly in the stocks and indices involved in the expiring options.
2. **Impact on Stock Prices**: The expiration of options contracts can influence the prices of underlying stocks. For instance, if there are a significant number of call options (which give the right to buy) expiring on a particular stock, there might be upward pressure on the stock price as market makers and traders hedge their positions.
3. **Sector and Index Movement**: The expiration could affect broader market indices and sectors, especially if there are large positions in index options or futures expiring. This can lead to movements in indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, etc., depending on where the expiring positions are concentrated.
4. **Trading Strategies**: Traders and institutional investors may employ specific trading strategies around Quad Witching, such as delta hedging (adjusting positions to neutralize directional exposure), which can further impact short-term market dynamics.
5. **Liquidity Concerns**: During periods of heightened volatility, there can be concerns about liquidity, particularly in less actively traded stocks or options. This could lead to wider bid-ask spreads and potentially higher transaction costs.
6. **Market Sentiment**: Quad Witching can also be seen as a reflection of overall market sentiment and investor positioning, as it involves a significant amount of capital and could indicate shifts in investor sentiment depending on how positions are adjusted.
Overall, while Quad Witching itself is a regular event in the financial markets, the scale of the options expiry you mentioned ($5.1 trillion in notional exposure) suggests potentially larger-than-usual impacts on market movements and dynamics. Traders and investors typically watch such events closely for short-term trading opportunities and to gauge broader market trends.
That's a long answer for "will tomorrow be red or green?"
Lol
ChatGPT has a response for that too:
Apologies for the detailed response. Predicting whether the market will be "red" or "green" on any given day, including around events like Quad Witching, is inherently uncertain. It depends on a complex interplay of factors and cannot be reliably predicted with certainty.
Here are a few points to consider:
1. **Market Reaction**: The immediate market reaction to Quad Witching can vary. Sometimes, increased volatility leads to both upward and downward movements as traders adjust their positions. The net effect on the overall market direction can be influenced by various factors including economic news, geopolitical events, and broader market sentiment.
2. **Historical Trends**: While there might be historical patterns around Quad Witching days (such as increased volatility), these patterns do not reliably predict market direction. Market behavior can be influenced by numerous factors, making short-term predictions difficult.
3. **Individual Stock Performance**: Rather than predicting the market as a whole, it may be more insightful to consider how individual stocks or sectors with significant options exposure might behave. Some stocks could see increased volatility and significant price movements based on their specific options expiry dynamics.
4. **Longer-Term Perspective**: Investors focused on longer-term goals typically view short-term volatility around events like Quad Witching as noise. Their strategies are based on broader economic trends, company fundamentals, and other fundamental factors rather than short-term market movements.
In conclusion, while Quad Witching can increase market volatility and trading activity, predicting whether the overall market will be "red" or "green" on such a day is uncertain. Market movements on any given day are influenced by a multitude of factors, and short-term predictions should be approached with caution.
My philosophy is, for any ENTRY plan there needs to be an IN PLACE EXIT plan.. even if the FOMO or MOMO or MM, or “irrational exuberance” seems to be taking hold. That’s just risk against plan.
this gets to me 85%+ positive results (meaning directional success achieved) and ~ 18.6% annual returns.
Fortune favors the prepared..
Boy Scouts motto “be prepared”
@Yoona. Stick to the plan and the maths
@jimholder Big data will guide you
@ForestGump. Like is like a box of chocalattes.. you never know what you’re gonna git’
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
would like to add:
@thenewguy1979 listen to what @tivoboy, @Yoona, and @dl003 tell you. They know you small head and tiny brain but they love the dog. Don't be greedy.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
FWIW xAI has "acquired" a number of engineers directly from Teslas own AI team-- Elon claimed it was because they'd otherwise leave to go to OpenAI, so YMMV on if that's stealing or not but there's at least SOME degree of there there.
Def. not good optics. One way to appease TSLA shareholders might be for Elon to make good on his promises to let us benefit somehow from his other companies (he said that multiple times). Since they're not public companies, I don't know what that would look like but it'll definitely be a value add.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Even that gets tricky though... like many have speculated Tesla will get Grok as a voice assistant in the car... and there's potentially lots of cool things an AI LLM could do in that regard in the car... but how transparent will the deal be because otherwise it'll get portrayed it as a $ transfer from Tesla to x.AI-- same as when Tesla began spending advertising $ on Twitter.
i decided to sell some, if not all, NVDA to lock in profits 
i am ok to "lose" money if the stock goes up further
i will buy back after a correction, if any
that's the plan!
edit: there is support at the hourly (50sma + rising channel + order block)
i am ok to "lose" money if the stock goes up further
i will buy back after a correction, if any
that's the plan!
edit: there is support at the hourly (50sma + rising channel + order block)
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word on the street is software engineer salary at Tesla is not the best and Elon seems to be pretty ruthless when it comes to letting people go. So, am I surprised that some AI folks who are all the rage these days possibly want to move on from Tesla at some point? Not really.
Do I think Elon is lying in some of those cases? I dont know. I will believe something as soon as I see credible evidence of it.
I just dont think its healthy to flip out at xAI. Out of all of his other companies, we decide to cry over Grok? I know I signed up for RT and Optimus. If those 2 succeed, we are golden. if they flop, Ill be flipping burger. I dont care about Grok.
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Today's action surprised me. [Fundamentally] Irrational jump followed by irrational sell-off. The technical analysis might be different I'm not writing puts for strikes over $130, so I am comfortable for now (I still want to acquire more). I do have a tranche of -C130 for tomorrow though which will be interesting; it wasn't a well placed trade and I didn't get nearly enough premium for it. If it assigns then I have to start the wheel on the shares rather than hold them because of some awkward positioning at points in the next two months, but I still have plenty of flexibility.i decided to sell some, if not all, NVDA to lock in profits
i am ok to "lose" money if the stock goes up further
i will buy back after a correction, if any
that's the plan!
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Grok is hardly the first example though----See again the Tesla which famously spent $0.00 on advertising since forever now spending $ on advertising... and starting with.... Twitter... which Elon also, privately, owns...
Or before that when Elon grabbed a bunch of Tesla engineers and had them work at twitter for a little while right after he took over-for free (well, for free to twitter that is... Tesla still was paying their salary and benefits for their Tesla job....)
FWIW when questioned on this Elon claimed all of those engineers (who famously already have crazy long hours at Tesla) all were happy to go work for free, after hours, at twitter as volunteers.... just because their CEO asked them to.
When asked if this was misusing Tesla-paid resources he dismissed that by saying "I didn't think of it as using Teslas assets" because "There's 120,000 people at the company. This is de minimis"
Maybe not today, but when we are talking about things 2-3+ years down the road it is healthy to be nervous.
I'll put it in the same class of things with rumors that SpaceX and BC were going to move onto part of the Tesla campus two years ago rather than where they ended up in Bastrop. That would have been a clear conflict on many levels and current development of the campus makes that more clear. (Telsa has a lot of land, but not "too much" and the sale or even leasing off of some of the land would have created an inordinate number of challenges.)
It is less about Grok than what happens next. I'll be cautiously optimistic (but watching) for now. I really don't want to fry taco shells ever again.
Some early reports about Tesla being affected by the CDK software attack and unable to deliver cars to customers in several states in the USA. CDK is said to be a platform used by dealers to register vehicles in several states, and apparently there is no alternative.Luckily we are a few days away from the end of the quarter, not sure how/if this will impact any numbers.
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