Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[dl003]

By "2nd spike", I'm not saying to expect a huge pump. This is what happened in early December 2022. It doesn't have to be a huge pump, it just needs to close a 2H candle above 182 without much follow through into the daily close to set us up for a bearish divergence.

Right now

So be very nimble. Last time it was Elon's selling that gapped us down. This time it might be P&D.

 

[Knightshade]

I mostly agree with you.

But ..... actually we don't know how they recognized the big chunk they did last time. Its possible they kept some in the "back pocket" for a rainy day ....

ps : I used to do quarterly P*L forecasts. Stopped doing that after Tesla demonstrated they could arbitrarily up or down the regulatory credits they recognized in a quarter.

AFAIK it was done due to making FSDb available to everyone in NA-- thus hitting the "delivered" mark for the last part of FSD (the post 3/19 version) that was as yet undelivered-- city streets.

Thus the only 2 unlocks left, as mentioned, are:

FSDb features for non-NA geos for post 3/19 buyers- which they are still owed
At least l4 FSD for pre 3/19 buyers- which they are still owed


The only wildcard in the deferred revenue description is they appear to also reserve some amount of $ toward future FSD development and OTA costs, but those would remain ongoing until FSD was abandoned so not really an unlock worth mentioning.

 

[EVNow]

AFAIK it was done due to making FSDb available to everyone in NA-- thus hitting the "delivered" mark for the last part of FSD (the post 3/19 version) that was as yet undelivered-- city streets.

Thats correct - what I meant was - what was the exact criteria used and how much % was recognized. Was it 100% of the revenue that met the criteria or 90% or 80% ... just like we don't know how Tesla recognizes Regulatory credits. They have a lot of leeway to postpone (but auditors may object if they recognize too early).

Anyway - bottomline - thats why I never play ER. Just sit out the options market around major events to reduce risk.

 

[Jim Holder]

By "2nd spike", I'm not saying to expect a huge pump. This is what happened in early December 2022. It doesn't have to be a huge pump, it just needs to close a 2H candle above 182 without much follow through into the daily close to set us up for a bearish divergence.
View attachment 1032616

Right now
View attachment 1032617
So be very nimble. Last time it was Elon's selling that gapped us down. This time it might be P&D.

Would the short near $187 strike be -C200 5/17 and put +P160 5/17?

 

[Jim Holder]

By "2nd spike", I'm not saying to expect a huge pump. This is what happened in early December 2022. It doesn't have to be a huge pump, it just needs to close a 2H candle above 182 without much follow through into the daily close to set us up for a bearish divergence.
View attachment 1032616

Right now
View attachment 1032617
So be very nimble. Last time it was Elon's selling that gapped us down. This time it might be P&D.

What range up/down post P&D are you preparing for/guestimating?

 

[Jim Holder]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773016159798911454

 

[Knightshade]

Sold a few dozen -C190 for 4/19 at $6.35, some more -C200 same date different account for $3.75-- happy enough if I need to roll these as they're all covered

 

[thenewguy1979]

By "2nd spike", I'm not saying to expect a huge pump. This is what happened in early December 2022. It doesn't have to be a huge pump, it just needs to close a 2H candle above 182 without much follow through into the daily close to set us up for a bearish divergence.
View attachment 1032616

Right now
View attachment 1032617
So be very nimble. Last time it was Elon's selling that gapped us down. This time it might be P&D.

If the Pump continue we should have our answer today or tomorrow, coinciding with GDP growth release.

Thanks dl003.

 

[dl003]

If the Pump continue we should have our answer today or tomorrow, coinciding with GDP growth release.

Thanks dl003.

no. This GDP reading is the 3rd estimates for Q4 2023, a nothingburger.

 

[Yoona]

tsla contracts showing signs of life (faint heartbeat)

 

[thenewguy1979]

tsla contracts showing signs of life (faint heartbeat)
View attachment 1032618
View attachment 1032619

Thanks Yoona. Can you please also update NVDA?

 

[Yoona]

Thanks Yoona. Can you please also update NVDA?

nvda

smci

 

[Jim Holder]

tsla contracts showing signs of life (faint heartbeat)
View attachment 1032618
View attachment 1032619

I'm surprised to see so much green on April 12th, any idea why when many/most ppl will be hedging for downside that week leading into ER?

 

[Yoona]

I'm surprised to see so much green on April 12th, any idea why when many/most ppl will be hedging for downside that week leading into ER?


View attachment 1032624

vol.land can probably explain it best

Vol.land by Wizard of Ops

Identify aggregate option dealer positioning in terms of first, second, and third order greeks

vol.land

 

[Jim Holder]

It just needs to close a 2H candle above $182 without much follow through into the daily close to set us up for a bearish divergence.

$182 or $187 for trigger?

Earlier post today was $187:

One way to play the short naked call / put game is to load up positions near $187. SL is a close daily close over $187. If that 2nd spike cannot close the day over $187 AND reach overbought on the 4H on the same day, it'd be very bearish.

 

[dl003]

$182 or $187 for trigger?

Earlier post today was $187:

2 different things.

 

[Cherry Wine]

$182 or $187 for trigger?

Earlier post today was $187:

Above $182 and around $187 are not mutually exclusive.

Also, earlier today I closed half of my 3/28 -c170s at a 25% loss and re-opened them on the recent spike as 3/28 -c180s which, if expire worthless, will cover the loss and then some. Still holding some other 3/28 -c170s which are at about a 150% loss right now.

 

[thenewguy1979]

2 different things.

If it reach 182 (2hrs candle) and it sputter or fall by by the end of the day - go short.
187 dont matter unless we want to jump the boat setting up for the play in advance.

Another scenarios what if it never made it to 182 before PD? Guess it become a guessing game by then

 

[elasalle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1773016159798911454

thats where my Jan 25 personal CC's at

 

[Max Plaid]

Thats correct - what I meant was - what was the exact criteria used and how much % was recognized. Was it 100% of the revenue that met the criteria or 90% or 80% ... just like we don't know how Tesla recognizes Regulatory credits. They have a lot of leeway to postpone (but auditors may object if they recognize too early).

Anyway - bottomline - thats why I never play ER. Just sit out the options market around major events to reduce risk.

Trouble with that is there appears to be a “major event” every week these days. If it’s not TSLA specific, then it’s PPI or FOMC, employment numbers, etc…