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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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This weekend I was sucked down the FSD rabbit hole by an overactive X algo, and with all the people saying they would definitely buy more shares or hold on to the existing ones for dear life after experiencing the new software version, I was expecting a much more positive open. I guess that's what a bubble can do to you.

I was hoping for a similar dynamic to help me further load up on bearish positions going into tomorrow. As is, I am holding a decent number of 4/5 +p180s and +p170s, along with January '25 -c200s.
 
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Did the whales just reveal their cards? Yes, they did. They can't help themselves!

TSLA 1hr 4-1-24.png
 
I was hoping for a similar dynamic to help me further load up on bearish positions going into tomorrow. As is, I am holding a decent number of 4/5 +p180s and +p170s, along with January '25 -c200s.
You gave me an idea to trade as I was looking to reduce my delta exposure for tomorrow. Decided against my original straddle play since I'm already long delta.

Sell 1 cc for Jan 2025 $240c @ $13.00
Buy 2 put for April 12 $170p @ $6.29

The cc cost basis is 240 so I'm not worried about even rolling this when fsd steam rolls past the strike. I figure we'll see a dip on negative p&d news tmrw and this will be a profitable trade, but in any event this is essentially a zero risk bet on the downside for me
 
Been a while - too juicy to stay away.
Opened a ratio collar at open -
STO - $180C for 4/19
BTO - $155P for 4/19
Ratio 1:3 (1 call / 3 puts)
Small Credit
Haven't been able to post in a while - sold almost all shares (down to 1119 shares - no leaps) to buy a business in September of last year.
Only been selling OTM Monthlies for spare shares.
GLTA - Cheers
 
Well, I am an idiot. @BornToFly I apologize for thinking you were overly optimistic on FSD and what it meant for Tesla. I did my first day of driving on FSD 12.3.3 and my mind is blown. I did more research and have to admit that I didn't understand the problem with a sufficient level of knowledge. I'm in bull mode now... and if I get a good chance to be more leveraged after the P&D numbers then I'll go nuts.

The metric that the AI experts are focused on is total FSD mile trend, saying that only ~10% of people using FSD (Beta) were doing so regularly, the rest treated it as a parlor trick. That is likely to change very quickly now, and an increase in rate of use will be what makes a difference.

(On my 15-mile drive I had two disengagements... one where FSD was just driving like a jerk due to a badly designed intersection. In the other it was objectively going too fast and would have likely slammed on the brakes at the same time I did due to a truck stopping for a left turn by the lead car; FSD was following too closely on a windy road.)

Short TSLA now at your peril...

PSA...

Now more than ever, if you are trading TSLA, you need to have first hand experience with 12.x. I'm looking at this data Home (I've followed for years and trust the statistical data collected) and Ashok (Director of AP whom I worked with) posted on X a bit cryptically "It is the beginning of the end!" as we could be on the march of 9s. And, just so folks know, **IF** we are, FSD will become error-free exponentially (over a period of months but will become obvious). Miles to urban critical DE is the key metric. **IF** this metric hits 1000, the likelihood is VERY HIGH that it will keep going to 10k, 100k, 1M in a few months. TO BE CLEAR, it needs more data to statistically demonstrate true generalized functionality.
This weekend I was sucked down the FSD rabbit hole by an overactive X algo, and with all the people saying they would definitely buy more shares or hold on to the existing ones for dear life after experiencing the new software version, I was expecting a much more positive open. I guess that's what a bubble can do to you.
Yeah, there is hype out there, but I follow the math and the math is currently working out. I think we'll see this coming at least a few months prior to the market catching on as regulators/NHTSA/IIHS/Euro NCAP...etc will need several months of error-free driving data.
Screenshot 2024-04-01 8.13.19 AM.png
 
PSA...

Now more than ever, if you are trading TSLA, you need to have first hand experience with 12.x. I'm looking at this data Home (I've followed for years and trust the statistical data collected) and Ashok (Director of AP whom I worked with) posted on X a bit cryptically "It is the beginning of the end!" as we could be on the march of 9s. And, just so folks know, **IF** we are, FSD will become error-free exponentially (over a period of months but will become obvious). Miles to urban critical DE is the key metric. **IF** this metric hits 1000, the likelihood is VERY HIGH that it will keep going to 10k, 100k, 1M in a few months. TO BE CLEAR, it needs more data to statistically demonstrate true generalized functionality.

Yeah, there is hype out there, but I follow the math and the math is currently working out. I think we'll see this coming at least a few months prior to the market catching on as regulators/NHTSA/IIHS/Euro NCAP...etc will need several months of error-free driving data.View attachment 1034222
It’s certainly something to continue to consider, but correct me if I’m wrong, but add that all this DE data is SELF REPORTED. So, it can be very subjective version to version, and by objective. Take that as well with a grain of salt.
 
It’s certainly something to continue to consider, but I would add that all this DE data is SELF REPORTED, correct me if I’m wrong. So, it can be very subjective version to version, and by objective. Take that as well with a grain of salt.
Statistically significant is the key. In the aggregate it normalizes and is mathematically meaningful. Much like animal spirits, our humanness can be removed from the equation or equated to be resolved predictably.
 
It’s certainly something to continue to consider, but correct me if I’m wrong, but add that all this DE data is SELF REPORTED. So, it can be very subjective version to version, and by objective. Take that as well with a grain of salt.
Yes it's self-reported but it's always been self-reported so thus, it doesn't invalidate the data.

To think that a the majority of those inputting their data would for whatever reason suddenly change how they're reporting just to make the data look more or less bullish based on certain release seems to be grasping for straws, especially considering how long this data set has been collected/inputted.
 
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@tivoboy, what on earth are you talking about here?

his lifetime deliveries are off by ~ 450K compared to Teslas “report” that the 6 millionth call has “rolled off the line”

1. On March 29, Tesla tweeted that they produced their 6 millionth car.
2. We need to find out how many cars they produced before this quarter so we can calculate production in Q1 2024 between January 1st and March 29th. Luckily, that's not a problem because there is a public spreadsheet here that I created which shows Tesla's production history. It shows 5,572,978 production until the end of 2023.

IMfil2j.png


We need to add 2,349 Roadster Original that were produced between 2008-2012. That brings the total to 5,575,327. When we subtract this number from 6,000,000, we get 424,673 production between January 1st and March 29th.

This number is pretty much as expected. What are you talking about?
 
This weekend I was sucked down the FSD rabbit hole by an overactive X algo, and with all the people saying they would definitely buy more shares or hold on to the existing ones for dear life after experiencing the new software version, I was expecting a much more positive open. I guess that's what a bubble can do to you.
Yesterday I had to take control of my Model Y on FSD after it’s burned 2 stops and was about to pass on a red light. Luckily it was a 11PM and nobody in the roads but the quality of the roads here in Montreal with erased lines, small stop panels and lights far away on open road make FSD really unreliable at moments. On highways it’s a beauty but in Montreal City it’s not ready. Probably the same thing in downtown Mumbai or Beijing. Not all the word might be bullish on FSD.