Guys, what's the way to scale out of shorts before a rebound?
30/30/30?
Hold for $140?
30/30/30?
Hold for $140?
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
If you press "View Press Release" near the page you're probably looking at you'll see it - Tesla Vehicle Production & Deliveries and Date for Financial Results & Webcast for First Quarter 2024.
ProfessorZoom
Member
I think that had something to do with FSD, years ago they talked about "vacation mode" where it would be smart enough to train itself on a feedback loop with Unreal Engine simulations and just needed supervision
I don’t believe this for a second… if there are 50K more cars produced WHERE ARE THEY?Production almost 50k more than deliveries and they're largely blaming factory shutdowns
How far do we fall u think, seriously? Need to plan to close CC's but not too early.
The word used was "partially" not "largely"Production almost 50k more than deliveries and they're largely blaming factory shutdowns
Fremont has regional mix delivery impact and loss of production earlier in the quarter impacts deliveries whereas production later impacts inventory. A production wave, if you will.
ProfessorZoom
Member
Well if you go to https://www.tesla.com/modely they made it pretty difficult to get the configure screen without browsing inventory
20k Lower than Troys numbers, 50k lower than the streets revised numbers, 100k lower than the streets numbers going into Q1. 200k lower than bulls who are smoking copium, jokes, light hearted jokes guys lol.
I still think that ~ $143 (and probably a little bit higher) is going to be strong, at LEAST intermediate support.. so I’m actually going to start deploying if/when a breach of $150 starts to occur. As I’ve said, I’m ok with another 10-15 or even another 20% down from there, but it’s about scaling in and then accelerating FOR ME
Today is clearly going to be overall RED mkt day, higher rates, higher $DXY, we’ll see $VIX jump a bit as well, oil higher, gold higher - and even with $DXY strength that is not good - it’s counter intuitive or even counter mathematical.
NFA NFA NFA
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I am actually wondering the same. I think I will wait until late afternoon and see how everything looks.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I mean they do use the word partly- but don't provide any other reasons at all.
I agree SOME of the hit in deliveries is from there simply not being refresh 3s to deliver in the US due to fumbling yet another product refresh in Fremont-- but what explains the REST of the decline? There were plenty of Ys in inventory if there'd been buyers for em and none of the production hits would've changed that.
IMHO we’ll get a pop at some point very early so the MMs can exit those puts. Take advantage.
ProfessorZoom
Member
It was because of umm fsd blockchain twitter x bitcoin cathie wood wave china so yeah
Hmm well I'm glad I sold the Jan 2025 $240cc and bought April 12 $170p, but I am torn on when to close them. Production was better than what I expected (est ~420, actual 433) and it was an expected dip and temporary. Deliveries were definitely lower than I estimated... knee jerk reaction I want to close them out and take my profits... but I think the smart play is to hold these at least until close of trading today, or at least later into the week
thenewguy1979
"The" Dog
Dog confused. Not on Jim's list? 386,783k
Guess major major No Bueno.
P&D - Basic Framework
400-410k = no bueno
410-420k = drop then pop
420-430k = closes green
430k+ = straight up
Guess major major No Bueno.
P&D - Basic Framework
400-410k = no bueno
410-420k = drop then pop
420-430k = closes green
430k+ = straight up
NFA, honestly I wouldn’t be just selling longs here. I think the best time for that has passed (certainly hindsight) but I’d be confident selling much closer in just OTM calls, but premium is going to tank. Nobody really knows, I still stand by previous comments that I do not see us revisiting the NOMINAL Jan 23 lows, but the landscape has changed quite a bit since then. Still, other than getting closer to a traditional automotive OEM P/E, which it shouldn’t be, the INVESTMENT math for ~ $100 doesn’t make sense. But, somewhere between $125-140 REALLY does for longer duration LARGE investor pools..
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