Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[StarFoxisDown!]

Dog confused. Not on Jim's list? 386,783k

Guess major major No Bueno.


P&D - Basic Framework
400-410k = no bueno
410-420k = drop then pop
420-430k = closes green
430k+ = straight up

The question just went from "Are we going to fill the gap at 146?" to "Is the gap fill at 146 going to be strong enough support?"

I used to think the gap fill would just bit a intraday thing but these numbers are so bad that we might be retesting the Jan 2023 low in April

 

[InTheMiddle]

I don’t believe this for a second… if there are 50K more cars produced WHERE ARE THEY?

Not sure if you’re serious or not, but FYI the Mesa, AZ delivery center has a large collection of vehicles filling a chunk of the otherwise-mostly-empty Superstition Springs Mall parking lot, the Scottsdale, AZ delivery center has a similar collection at a shopping center near them, and while I have not personally visually confirmed it myself, I believe the Glendale, AZ location does as well. Likely this holds for many of the delivery centers across the US.

 

[MrMoo]

You know what. I changed my mind. I’ll take a 3% short position on it. I know it’s not the usual put / calls we normally talk about but I don’t like going long puts due to theta. I believe that previous top at 183 will be hard resistance and limits max losses.

 

[tivoboy]

Hmm well I'm glad I sold the Jan 2025 $240cc and bought April 12 $170p, but I am torn on when to close them. Production was better than what I expected (est ~420, actual 433) and it was an expected dip and temporary. Deliveries were definitely lower than I estimated... knee jerk reaction I want to close them out and take my profits... but I think the smart play is to hold these at least until close of trading today, or at least later into the week

DBG. ITM is $ for $ at this point.

 

[Yoona]

But, somewhere between $125-140 REALLY does for longer duration LARGE investor pools..

3 weeks ago i was also thinking ~125 is possible (remove noise, just plain statistics/probabilities):

i would normally call this out as st*pid and irresponsible, but judging from recent Q4 history there may be a point; -22% drop from here is ~125.

we just had 2nd-worst P&D to Earnings range, and 4 consecutive red quarters from P&D

 

[phantasms]

Anyone selling puts for Friday? $1 for $150.

 

[BornToFly]

Rolled 185CC to 175 for $1 credit for Friday.

 

[juanmedina]

Fill the gap! Fill the gap! Going to start shopping today.

Anyone selling puts for Friday? $1 for $150.

I might but not yet. I want to go shopping as well.

-10% is $157 I think the miss like that should be worth lower than $157.

 

[Jim Holder]

I closed most of my shorts @$164 push for nice gains, and will reopen new ones if we lose $160.
Still holding longs.

 

[john tanglewoo]

Hope everyone can remain cool and calm today.

 

[BornToFly]

RIVN had a beat and they are down more than TSLA….

 

[thenewguy1979]

seem people have not awaken to the news yet.....

 

[Knightshade]

Hope everyone can remain cool and calm today.

Well I was able to close my various 4/19 -Cs for 85-90% profit, so I've got that going for me.

Was temped by the mention of selling -P150 for $1 for Friday, but I'm already still stuck with like 1000 more-than-normal shares from doing something like that at 235 that I've not quite yet made the difference back selling calls on yet.

 

[mongo]

RIVN had a beat and they are down more than TSLA….

Also with declining deliveries (plus flat guidance)

 

[MrMoo]

Wow I’m shocked that the stocks holding up so well. Enough buyers here for now. I sware if we had hit 420 maybe the stock would green now. But hey markets only been open 20 min lol.

 

[tivoboy]

Not sure if you’re serious or not, but FYI the Mesa, AZ delivery center has a large collection of vehicles filling a chunk of the otherwise-mostly-empty Superstition Springs Mall parking lot, the Scottsdale, AZ delivery center has a similar collection at a shopping center near them, and while I have not personally visually confirmed it myself, I believe the Glendale, AZ location does as well. Likely this holds for many of the delivery centers across the US.

It’s hard to tell how many locations are really DELIVERY locations, but some numbers are in the high 480, so with say 500, that would mean 100 cars at each location, or in transit, or sitting at a factory on average? Wouldn’t we have seen reports of that?

My personal thesis for some of the things we WERE seeing, like most M3 Highland deliveries for Mar being pushed back to May-June (that just miraculously showed up as now available and ready for delivery) was a quarterly PUSH into Q2, since Q1 was going to be a throwaway for sure.

What will happen now, is analysis of the E that is coming, which frankly could be NEGATIVE, and will buyers look past that as the anomaly that it MIGHT be, or will we get another mkt push down when those numbers come out. That’s about two weeks out on 4/17

 

[bballshinobi]

Nothing better than holdings puts when your favorite stock is going down.

 

[DaBooster]

I'm thinking it's clear future boy's 180-220 range for this week is off the table

 

[Yoona]

overnight +91%, closing soon

edit : strategy is ideally wait 1 day before new STO (ie play next day's trend coz today might reverse)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

At this valuation and given these P&D numbers, if you're holding a position in TSLA it's only because of their Vision/Autonomy software stack and future product releases - Semi, Cybertruck ramp, Energy. Optimus. I'm firmly in that camp that is holding a long position and will continue to do so because this is all just noise in comparison to their future products.

But man Tesla better hope FSD progress does continue to accelerate over the next couple of months because their core auto business is gonna rough this year. Their excuse of production interruptions doesn't hold up because even with those, they still should have posted much better delivery numbers.

I see multiple ways for them to maneuver during this time to help prop up their core auto business but they seems just content with keeping their heads down in the sand until FSD arrives.