Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Knightshade]

Agreed, I'd actually be more bullish if Tesla had delivered 380k and produced 390k, this just looks like no-one is buying them right now, simple as that. And what's going to shift them? Cut the prices, cut production, what's it to be?

As for Musk's AH Tweet on Friday, I see Pre-Market has seen some decent volume, but the SP has not run away, at least not yet...

It's nebulous, vague, promise of "something" on 8/8.

Autonomy day was 5 years ago that was also intended to unveil the RT future and still no RTs.

If folks think 8/8 will also be a reveal for the compact car, then that's going to be one hell of a Osbourne effect until it comes to production.

Maybe?

Or maybe not?

This came up in the "main" thread last week... which do you think is a bigger group?

Folks who were going to stretch to afford a 3/Y when they'd have been happy with a smaller/lower spec car for less $ (the ones who this could osborne)
OR
Folks who were going to stay affordable and buy a civic or corolla or whatever other cheap compact because Tesla offered nothing in the price range they could afford. (this is who might now NOT buy a non-Tesla and wait for the compact)


I think that second group's a lot bigger.

If it's just a square box on wheels the they'll be disappointed that there's no Compact reveal...

I think a LOT of people will be, given the % still dubious that FSD is ready for driverless anytime soon.

If the stories of "actual consumer compact is now pushed to like 2028" turned out true I'd be seriously looking at moving my $ elsewhere, that'd be like 5 dead years of no growth outside of the second megapack factory unless you think RT Real Soon Now.

Honestly would be better for the whole robotaxi thing to just begin with existing cars, will take years to get it up and running and FSD more widely available, no need for a specific vehicle yet, IMO

Yeah- that'd require a working >L2 system though.

The fact they're NOT turning that on for existing cars tells me they still don't have one.

But then again I don't think Musk thought about this too much before blurting it out on Friday

Agreed.

 

[elasalle]

This echo the sentiment of the short term.
Not a fan of the guy but a good watch nonetheless.

MeetKevin sold all shares want's lower entry point
JamesCat sold his shares, wants lower entry point

I read a response to Mayur(freshShiva) which sums this game up as follows:
"Dude when you sold this stock you trash it, after you bought it back you glorify it"

To each their own Agenda cheers!!

FSD is the curveball no one expected

 

[elasalle]

Closed the 170 PUTs for 50% gains, and resold 165 for a $5 cushion into Fri

 

[thenewguy1979]

The force is strong with this one.....

 

[BornToFly]

I was smelling a bump and a drop, so sold some 180CCs for Friday. Waiting on the rest.

 

[Jim Holder]

4/12

4/19

 

[BornToFly]

We haven't closed over 180 in a month. This will be an interesting week.

 

[Max Plaid]

I note that IV for 4/26 (earnings week) is pretty high, right now I could free-roll they week's 100x -c165's to -c175 for free

But I'm going to wait-and see a bit, because this pop is nonsense IMO

 

[dl003]

The first 4H candle on Friday was able to reclaim the 4H uptrend. Unfortunately, the 2nd 4H candle lost it and now we've officially lost the uptrend momentum in place since March 26th. The 4H uptrend support rested around 166.6 while the stock closed at 165 so you could say it's a blip since MM wanted it there for the weekly close. However, 170 would also be a good close. Why not 170?

What this tells me is although Elon did speak out and lots of bears were trapped during that 15 minutes, the nasty $15 drop in less than a day did clear out a lot of + delta and now the upward momentum has slowed down a lot. Case in point: we're still no where near the peak last week, despite a huge bear trap and RT news. I expect us to remain range bound with IV depressed into next week close. Right now they're just squeezing out the put buyers but call buyers are not piling on anymore.

 

[SpeedyEddy]

I don't like the slow rise and pull-back after such a weekend of good news. (and Farzad had a good YT video on NOT-osborning; Only ROBOtaxi for fleetowners on 8/8. Retail version will be Announced when you also can order it to buy in a few months)
so I took my profits on last Friday's entry a few moments ago.

 

[Jim Holder]

I took my profits on last Friday's entry a few moments ago.

Took profits on shorts or calls?
What do you see next for SP?

 

[SpeedyEddy]

could be a nice IC-week I guess

 

[UncaNed]

It's nebulous, vague, promise of "something" on 8/8.

Autonomy day was 5 years ago that was also intended to unveil the RT future and still no RTs.




Maybe?

Or maybe not?

This came up in the "main" thread last week... which do you think is a bigger group?

Folks who were going to stretch to afford a 3/Y when they'd have been happy with a smaller/lower spec car for less $ (the ones who this could osborne)
OR
Folks who were going to stay affordable and buy a civic or corolla or whatever other cheap compact because Tesla offered nothing in the price range they could afford. (this is who might now NOT buy a non-Tesla and wait for the compact)


I think that second group's a lot bigger.






I think a LOT of people will be, given the % still dubious that FSD is ready for driverless anytime soon.

If the stories of "actual consumer compact is now pushed to like 2028" turned out true I'd be seriously looking at moving my $ elsewhere, that'd be like 5 dead years of no growth outside of the second megapack factory unless you think RT Real Soon Now.




Yeah- that'd require a working >L2 system though.

The fact they're NOT turning that on for existing cars tells me they still don't have one.





Agreed.

Elon said 8/8/24 Robotaxi reveal; but DID he ever address if the $25,000 car really is being discontinued or not??

And so what if Robotaxi gets revealed; it often takes Tesla so many years from reveal to actual production, let alone ramped up?

Not happy discussing in options thread, I'll delete when answered...

 

[SpeedyEddy]

Took profits on shorts or calls?
What do you see next for SP?

I was bullish Friday, now neutral, so I closed -P and sold +C

 

[Yoona]

good start

 

[Jim Holder]

 

[SpeedyEddy]

BTW daytrading MSTR is like SMCI a few weeks ago. (still very profitably holding MSCI -C 1125 for may 3 and -C 1610 for June 21)
MSTR is way overbought and now unwinding with Huge IV

 

[SpeedyEddy]

good start

View attachment 1036690

so a very bad earnings week is possible

 

[Yoona]

so a very bad earnings week is possible

(personally, i'm not seeing any catalyst)

past performance is no guarantee of future result

 

[Knightshade]

Elon said 8/8/24 Robotaxi reveal; but DID he ever address if the $25,000 car really is being discontinued or not??

Only thing he said was "Reuters is lying (again)"

He didn't specify about what, specifically, in the original story was a lie or to what degree.

Then very shortly after did the 8/8 announcement for Robotaxi unveil


I've seen both the following speculated about the truth:

25k car will be at the 8/8 thing and it's just the RT with steering wheel attached, and the whole story is a lie

25k won't be there, and isn't "cancelled" that's a lie, but it is delayed till like 2028 (Troys idea is lack of batteries for something that'll be millions of cars a year as 4680 went way slower than expected, and Chinese cells don't get $7500 IRA credit)- while the RT, in small/trial numbers, will come sooner.

And so what if Robotaxi gets revealed; it often takes Tesla so many years from reveal to actual production, let alone ramped up?

Not happy discussing in options thread, I'll delete when answered...

Troy had a chart on this -
S/3/Y all (very roughly) 1 year from unveil to first 1000 units of production.
X/CT both (very roughly) 4 years from unveil to first 1000 units of production.

Semi/Roadster2 both north of 6 years and still not there.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1776413645678735818