Also, Elon had to be convinced to put a steering wheel in the Model Y. Far before FSD was even what it is today.
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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House
- Thread starter adiggs
- Start date
This is not our first rodeo. Elon is in the business of delivering difficult products, and people tend to rely on crutches. Model 2 is a crutch. So Elon telling team and giving them very little choice to use such crutch is just his way of driving them to realize the actual important product they need to make.
Radar and ultrasonic were crutches and everyone said how stupid it was to take those out. Now no one wants them as vision has proven to be better.
Remember that time when Elon said starlink 2.0 satellites can only be launched via starship so people need to come into work now on Thanksgiving?
This is all the same tactics he uses and he actually never compromise cash flow for whatever his wants are.
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To nit pick...
Elon was against non HD radar. He's not against HD radar and put them in the new HW4 S/X, but not any other model.
In a way Elon has always went balls to the walls with autonomy. Teslas are the only car you can buy with the hardware suite weather you pay for it or not. For someone who wants everyone to search for pennies in savings everyday, this is perhaps the most balls to the wall move one can make.
I think the general sentiment is "I thought we had more time." We all imagined robotaxi would be launched in some distant future where Tesla was selling 5m+ vehicles a year, where valuation was justified by huge auto profit and robotaxi would gradually rise to overtake auto. This pivot is extremely abrupt. We are now asked to take a risk previously not on the agenda. It is what it is. The risk of bailing is we wake up one day, RT is a huge success but our stakes are all gone. The risk of not bailing is our financial plan getting set back years. Im much more willing to take one compared to the other.
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EVNow
Well-Known Member
That doesn’t mean FSD will magically happen. Until something is done - we can’t know whether it can be done. May be it’s like cold fusion and won’t be possible in our lifetime.
A good example of something similar is Netflix deciding to abandon DVDs and going to streaming - long before it became possible for most people (in terms of bandwidth infrastructure). But we all knew it was only a matter of time as infrastructure ramped up.
PS : Coming back to that Reuters report - were they correct and Elon was lying ?
Yeah, the differences between the two cars are just controls and are designed since the beginning to be easily modifiable. Is Elon saying if fsd happens then model 2 is in the back burner? Absolutely as it's stupidly obvious to go that route -per Elon. Also it's stupidly obvious what Elon is saying as everyone is now playing some kind of grand pivot narrative.
I think the annoyance for some is that Elon and Tesla are being treated right now like they have no clue what they're doing.
I think people seem to forget that the main FSD team and Elon tests build that are further advanced than what we currently see and they also know what's coming in terms of future builds.
They're definitely winging it to a certain degree because of their convictions but I think it's unfair to say Tesla, who built the EV industry up from nothing and Elon and SpaceX who brought the space/rocket industry back from the dead, have no clue what they're doing.
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Okay this is not a hard concept.
Model 2 is cancelled if fsd happens. It's on table if fsd doesn't happen. Elon will never say this as not only is it obvious but he wants his team to work as if this model 2 doesn't exist because fsd must happen. Elon will make sure to give his team as muc resource as possible to ensure its success. But if they can't do it, then yes model 2 will happen and Elon would be pissed and many heads will roll.
Got it?
Model 2 is cancelled if fsd happens. It's on table if fsd doesn't happen. Elon will never say this as not only is it obvious but he wants his team to work as if this model 2 doesn't exist because fsd must happen. Elon will make sure to give his team as muc resource as possible to ensure its success. But if they can't do it, then yes model 2 will happen and Elon would be pissed and many heads will roll.
Got it?
I think this is a very good point and something I was going to mention too.
FSD 12.3 was apparently a 2023 build so who’s to say they are not already close to a robotaxi build.
At this point i think the price action is getting a bit silly and that is why im planning to close all my long puts and start selling CSP. Could we go down another 30%. Sure but nothing goes straight down and I like my odds there.
ELON TO TESTIFY BEFORE U.S CONGRESSIONAL HEARING SET - MAY 8th
Elon is scheduled to testify before the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee about allegations of censorship by Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes.
The hearing, set for May 8, will address Moraes' orders to ban opposition figures' social media profiles.
U.S lawmakers have expressed concern over Moraes' requests to X and hinted at potential U.S. sanctions against Brazil akin to those on Venezuela.
Source: Repórter PB
Elon is scheduled to testify before the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee about allegations of censorship by Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes.
The hearing, set for May 8, will address Moraes' orders to ban opposition figures' social media profiles.
U.S lawmakers have expressed concern over Moraes' requests to X and hinted at potential U.S. sanctions against Brazil akin to those on Venezuela.
Source: Repórter PB
Hmm…may I guess you chose the latter, to hold on for dear life and see where it goes?
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Elon has been feeding this narrative, see his most recent 4-5 tweets.
He is not pivoting, he just see FSD being solved more likely within the time frame. This can change if the next few updates lead them into a local maximum or he becomes bearish again. The assembly line isn't built yet, everything is fluid.
On the negative side QQQ is up over 50% from that point. But that is just relative, in a vacuum it's good to see people are more prepared this time around.
I’m still miffed I missed the “slow frog boil” walk down from $180’s to $148. Keeps happening; traders “luck.” Whether we are missing another exit opportunity here before seeing $100 or $80 we’ll only know in hindsight I guess (again).
ChiefRollo
Member
At this point in time it doesn’t have to be mutually exclusive
So plan for both, mitigate the risk of failure by having two options and see how it goes
We can’t have a waterfall sequential timeline
Cheers!!
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Dude - you are assuming your speculation is "obviously correct".
There are a ton of other possibilities.
After Reuters report came out (I bet there is a lot of truth in that) - Elon said it was a lie - but made many moves that corroborates what they said.
It has been "blindingly obvious" from a long time, Elon has no idea if and when FSD will ever happen. Proof : He said by the end of the year FSD will happen every one of last 5 or so years. Given this - either you have to do all the thousand things you need to do to build Model 2 now .... or you don't. So, the question is - is Tesla "waiting" before making significant investments in Model 2 or not. If they are "waiting" how long will they wait ?
ps : I think what actually influenced the "pivot" are a couple of things
- Down market for EVs
- Performance of AI stocks compared to TSLA
- V12
On a side note, it is interesting to remember that V11 "single stack" was hyped as much as V12.
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