Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Max Plaid]

Musk and CFO were on script - if only they’d been like that in previous calls!

I still think it stinks, but if the stock rallies hard, I’ll do week with my LEAPs

Will need to treat my -c140’s tomorrow. Flip to puts, straddle at -160, don’t know yet

My take aways for the call:
- it’s still all about FSD
- extremely evasive on compact car
- 4680 project essentially dead

 

[tivoboy]

@tivoboy would buy shares here?

I am not buying here.

 

[Max Plaid]

And Musk suddenly talking about share buy-back when they just got negative FCF and are $2.5B down

Come on…

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

- 4680 project essentially dead

that’s not what I heard on the call

 

[Discoducky]

And Musk suddenly talking about share buy-back when they just got negative FCF and are $2.5B down

Come on…

That got a chuckle out of me, but nevertheless, he mentioned it!

Since they have insight into the reliability of the next few builds of FSD and know when they'll be starting robotaxis, that is when I'd do a buyback and trigger the mother of all squeezes.

 

[Discoducky]

4680 project essentially dead

I heard the opposite that 4680s will be more cost competitive than suppliers cells by end of year.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

I heard the opposite that 4680s will be more cost competitive than suppliers cells by end of year.

Lars said they expect to beat supplier based costs on nickel based cells by the end of the year. They're also under the belief that due to oem pullbacks, there is additional battery capacity available from suppliers which should lower costs.

In my opinion: regarding 4680 cells it appears they will continue to work on them to lower costs and in conjunction with existing supply it should not be a major limiting factor.

 

[BornToFly]

I really, REALLY need to stop BUYING options! All my protective Puts will be wasted money.

 

[tivoboy]

I really, REALLY need to stop BUYING options! All my protective Puts will be wasted money.

Isn't that part of the point of "insurance"

 

[thenewguy1979]

@tivoboy , does today event change your thesis about the duration/intensity of the market correction or this is isolated to just TSLA?
More pain ahead or we maybe closer to the end of the correction?

 

[BornToFly]

Isn't that part of the point of "insurance"

Yes, but my timing is always terrible. I shouldn't buy insurance if I NEVER use it....

 

[mongo]

And Musk suddenly talking about share buy-back when they just got negative FCF and are $2.5B down

Come on…

That was down the road.
Like the $2.6B in extra inventory from Q1 they have mostly sold by now.

 

[Patrick66]

Yes, but my timing is always terrible. I shouldn't buy insurance if I NEVER use it....

I don't think that is the lesson you want to learn; try to learn how much insurance you need. Insurance should never make you whole... or get you ahead. Insurance should be used to moderate your risk and not eliminate it.

In life estimating our risk and exposure is hard; with stocks it is so much easier... although probability is a challenge for both.

I de-risked a bit today, but I won't lose sleep over it.

 

[Knightshade]

I really, REALLY need to stop BUYING options!

If only there was a thread all about doing the opposite of that!

 

[BornToFly]

High chance we will not trade over 165 before pulling back.

waiting

 

[Discoducky]

I'm a huge fan of options trading....The biggest takeaway for options trading is that Ashok said they have insight into the next two builds of FSD which they KNOW, through validation, are better than previous versions for reliability (listen to the call for the details as they do NOT release builds unless they demonstrate higher reliability). This DEMONSTRATES they are on the march of 9s which could take anywhere from months to years, but what that means is that ANY given user of FSD should NOT have a safety critical intervention more than ANY other user in a given amount of time *AND* that time is now measured in days, then weeks, then months, then years, then decades...aka "THE MARCH!"

And for something completely different....I'm on day 9 of no safety interventions on 12.3.4 after 100s of miles (version 11.x I could break it within minutes)

NOTE: Things that are NOT supported in the build are:

1. Reverse
2. Advisory signs like Road Closed, No turn on red, School Zone...etc
3. Human traffic arbiter - like a traffic cop
4. Blinking reds
5. Road paint - FSD seems to rely only on map metadata (aka lane number and maneuver assignment)

 

[elasalle]

Yes, but my timing is always terrible. I shouldn't buy insurance if I NEVER use it....

CC is a coin toss- especially this one
, insurance was for the hurricane
Upcoming quarters hope the weather forecast is not as bad

 

[OrthoSurg]

That got a chuckle out of me, but nevertheless, he mentioned it!

Since they have insight into the reliability of the next few builds of FSD and know when they'll be starting robotaxis, that is when I'd do a buyback and trigger the mother of all squeezes.

The market is probably going to want to front run that buybacks exactly how they front ran the Elon shares dump on open market when he overbid twitter

 

[elasalle]

The market is probably going to want to front run that buybacks exactly how they front ran the Elon shares dump on open market when he overbid twitter

Buyback is a carrot for the votes ,
Stick was the development of optimus
Long way to go

 

[OrthoSurg]

Yes, but my timing is always terrible. I shouldn't buy insurance if I NEVER use it....

The idea of buying 100 protective long puts crossed my mind yesterday, however since it was an obvious move all retails would do, I sat on my LEAPs and did nothing today, apart of 4 joint replacement and one below knee amputation for a necrotic foot. Glad I didn’t shoot my foot for once.