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Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

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In a good way or bad?

Maybe I am missing something, but I struggle with how the RT will be transformative without equal progress on FSD. I would think a demo of FSD13 with internal testing of over 1 million miles completed without any disengagements would do more for the stock than showing a mockup of an RT.

A RT is nothing like we have today. No car from anyone is a RT. Its a new class of cars. Obviously the software is the majority of the difficulty but the RT itself is a nice chunk of challenge to design and manufacture at scale.
 
Can we crowd-fund a decent stage manager for Tesla’s 8/8 event? If 8/8 is anything like the Cybertruck unveiling…look out below.

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I'm hoping the opposite. The product should sell itself and we don't need fancy stage or speakers to talk it up. If its revolutionary as I hope it will be then zero need to waste on a nice stage.
 
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I agree stationary storage is a significant growing part of their business- but generation (solar) has been hilariously awful for years now with massive declines in MW of deployment from the early years. It was over 200 MW a quarter back in Q4 2016. 5 years later in Q4 2021 it was below 100 MW a quarter... and by Q4 2023 it was a mere 41 MW. In Q1 2024 they stopped reporting the solar deployment number entirely.
 
i agree, but i don't understand leaps

delivery of 100 shares is automatic if i have stock (ie called away)

if leaps, does the broker close out the leaps or does the broker use my cash to buy stock?

if i have multiple leaps, how does the broker know which one to close?

what is the buying power and margin of leaps?

confused!!!
I always thought the leaps would have enough money to cover the losses of the short dated calls? I can't imagine where that doesn't happen. So bought calls gets taken away and you are left with less cash?
 
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I always thought the leaps would have enough money to cover the losses of the short dated calls? I can't imagine where that doesn't happen. So bought calls gets taken away and you are left with less cash?
as per @Max Plaid , exercise is not automatic and it makes sense - broker wouldn't know what to sell if there are multiple LEAPS

if the shorts are losing, then it means it is more profitable to sell the LEAPS and then buy stock to cover the shorts (exercising the LEAPS means i lose all the extrinsic)

should be done before friday close to have a clean exit
 
PUMP:

Morgan Stanley reiterated an Overweight rating and $310 PT

June 25, 2024 7:17 AM

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reiterated an Overweight rating and $310.00 price target on Tesla.
Yes please. Although I’ll probably be out well before it reaches that unless I see significant FSD progress on my own car. I plan on quitting my job and attempting to retire early 2025. If TSLA tanks it’s going to make me uncomfortable to quit. I thought I would be worth four or five times what I’m currently worth. This isn’t going so well.
 
TSLA pre-market volume 300k, NVDA 9.5M 🤪
I always thought the leaps would have enough money to cover the losses of the short dated calls? I can't imagine where that doesn't happen. So bought calls gets taken away and you are left with less cash?
It's all in the Delta, i.e. how much the option value moves per $1 move in the underlying... this is easiest visualised as a calendar spread. The immediate and obvious part is that it's a debit to enter the position and if the SP falls you begin to lose immediately, likewise if it rises too high, the value of the closer-dated short becomes higher than the longer dated long

However, and this is the way I use LEAPS (and shitcalls, shitputs, etc.), you can roll the weekly short if it's losing, or keep writing them far enough away that you bring in a weekly profit and just use the LEAP as the long side of a celendar spread/diagonal

In this case, the debit for the position is $62.50, but there are around 130 Fridays to write short positions, meaning 50c per week would break-even; $1 per week would be 100% ROI

And then you can get a bonus if you manage to keep ahead on the short strike while the SP rises, the long strike will go up in value and at a certain point you can just sell the long for good profits anyway

That's the game...

And long LEAPS can be rolled too, especially when they low in value, as I explained up-thread earlier

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as per @Max Plaid , exercise is not automatic and it makes sense - broker wouldn't know what to sell if there are multiple LEAPS

if the shorts are losing, then it means it is more profitable to sell the LEAPS and then buy stock to cover the shorts (exercising the LEAPS means i lose all the extrinsic)

should be done before friday close to have a clean exit
Actually you just roll the shorts, normally... that's the beauty of calendar spreads versus straight spreads...
 
Yes please. Although I’ll probably be out well before it reaches that unless I see significant FSD progress on my own car. I plan on quitting my job and attempting to retire early 2025. If TSLA tanks it’s going to make me uncomfortable to quit. I thought I would be worth four or five times what I’m currently worth. This isn’t going so well.
I could actually retire now and generate the same weekly income as I get from the day job with incredibly low-risk weeklies, but as the wife will work the next 7 years anyway, I carry on as long as I can and try to keep my hands off my capital

That being said, my weekly target is 1% of total portfolio value added as cash, and to tag on the extra I make doing the 9 - 5 would be 1.3%, so I do wonder if it's worth the effort, especially as it distracts from trading opportunities

So yeah, thinking about it...
 
Yes please. Although I’ll probably be out well before it reaches that unless I see significant FSD progress on my own car. I plan on quitting my job and attempting to retire early 2025. If TSLA tanks it’s going to make me uncomfortable to quit. I thought I would be worth four or five times what I’m currently worth. This isn’t going so well.
You're not alone my friend.
 
I could actually retire now and generate the same weekly income as I get from the day job with incredibly low-risk weeklies, but as the wife will work the next 7 years anyway, I carry on as long as I can and try to keep my hands off my capital

That being said, my weekly target is 1% of total portfolio value added as cash, and to tag on the extra I make doing the 9 - 5 would be 1.3%, so I do wonder if it's worth the effort, especially as it distracts from trading opportunities

So yeah, thinking about it...
For myself, I kept working one year after I was comfortable with the value of my portfolio-- and retired back in 2018 at 47. At that point it was worth twice what my old retirement target was. The TSLA pop quadroupled that number (and the drop lowered it by 25%). The reality is that if it wasn't for the TSLA pop I wouldn't have had the stability to stay retired; I significantly underestimated my retirement needs, although I did buy a much bigger house than I intended to which significantly increased costs.
 
I always thought the leaps would have enough money to cover the losses of the short dated calls? I can't imagine where that doesn't happen. So bought calls gets taken away and you are left with less cash?
This is the problem with the PMCC / leap backed covered call. On a move against its not hard for the short call delta to go higher than the long call delta. At that point the short call is losing money faster than the long call is gaining money.

With share backed covered call the shares always have a delta of 1 - no matter how DITM the short call goes you will always be making money on further increases in the share price.

The PMCC is also exposed to Vega - changes in the option value based on changes in IV. The leap IV doesn't necessarily move in unison with the short call - when they work in your favor of course that's grand. When the IV changes go against you - not so much fun.
 
This is the problem with the PMCC / leap backed covered call. On a move against its not hard for the short call delta to go higher than the long call delta. At that point the short call is losing money faster than the long call is gaining money.

With share backed covered call the shares always have a delta of 1 - no matter how DITM the short call goes you will always be making money on further increases in the share price.

The PMCC is also exposed to Vega - changes in the option value based on changes in IV. The leap IV doesn't necessarily move in unison with the short call - when they work in your favor of course that's grand. When the IV changes go against you - not so much fun.
Great perspective. Of course the "not so much fun" part can / should be entirely attributed to the bad short call play, not a knock on the long call.
 
$RVIN ripping on announcement of a joint-venture with $VW, good for them both!


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Wait, so Rivian beat TSLA to the punch by licensing their software to VW?
If so wouldnt that make Rivian a Tech company now?

All respect then . No hype, no Bull, just action.....these are the types of good news we need for TSLA - not just RT......


I think professor @tivoboy can retire early with his holding in RVIN :)

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Wait, so Rivian beat TSLA to the punch by licensing their software to VW?
If so wouldnt that make Rivian a Tech company now?

All respect then . No hype, no Bull, just action.....these are the types of good news we need for TSLA - not just RT......


I think professor @tivoboy can retire early with his holding in RVIN :)

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It’s beyond embarrassing that VW can’t do a decent and capable operating system for their EV’s. The fact that they’re licensing Rivians software which is as vanilla as they come with a fancy cell shaded rendering look from Unreal is just sad.

Congrats to Rivian for getting a one time payment for something that a small group of competent engineers could do in a couple months 😂
 
Wait, so Rivian beat TSLA to the punch by licensing their software to VW?
If so wouldnt that make Rivian a Tech company now?

All respect then . No hype, no Bull, just action.....these are the types of good news we need for TSLA - not just RT......


I think professor @tivoboy can retire early with his holding in RVIN :)

View attachment 1059698
I would assume that Rivian supply the EV tech and software, VW help them with their bloated cogs

Either way it's good for EV adoption and The Mission