Wiki Selling TSLA Options - Be the House

[Patrick66]

I dont see optimism yet. this is far from what you normally see at the top. hell the other thread is still talking about fsd and delivery instead of new ath.

"The other thread" is a waste of time.

Hands down you have better tools than my finger in the wind, but the optimism is just having an up day today with relatively high volume when logic would have it down.

I don't think this wave will have much irrational exuberence.

 

[Max Plaid]

I have some callsexpiring expiring 8/16 for $195, Expiring 7/05 for $197.5 ,$200 and $205 is it better to roll now or wait for the pullback. i know i have to roll 7/5 by friday this week.

TSLA had its highest close since January yesterday, will it push higher? Some around here think it will, based on the charts, I, amongst others think not, based on poor fundamentals and too much hopium/FOMO. Ultimately the near-term will be dominated by the P&D along with the pending earnings, with the usual news drama from time to time

50/50 coin-toss IMO... even a bad P&D, 420k or below, might be seen as a positive by WS, "not as bad as feared", like the Q1 earnings - which were a shitshow of immense proportions, and yet the stock started the recovery from <140 to where it is now >200

 

[Max Plaid]

Aside P&D today, we have some macro events:

China numbers came in "as expected" this week, 14k:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808003036255580407

But production in June quite a bit down on May (lowest production quarter since 22Q3)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808064285987278978

 

[CHGolferJim]

Whoa, Max-Pain for 5July has lurched up to $200 from $187.50 yesterday.

Stock Option Max Pain

maximum-pain.com

 

[Jim Holder]

Tesla: In Q2, we produced approximately 411k vehicles & delivered approximately 444k vehicles.
Our Q2 Earnings Call will be streamed live on X on July 23 at 4:30pm CT

https://twitter.com/x/status/1808123719069434194

 

[Patrick66]

Well, P&D is a winner in my book. Also suggests better operational efficiency than I expected. My negativity was wrong.

 

[juanmedina]

Wow good job Tesla they really turned it around. Gosh my January $240's are hurting.

 

[SebastienBonny]

And what to say about energy storage...
My 180CC for 07/19 is dead now, but 220P for january will be smiling now

 

[MP3Mike]

Official release: Tesla Investor Relations

AUSTIN, Texas, July 2, 2024 – In the second quarter, we produced approximately 411,000 vehicles and delivered approximately 444,000 vehicles. We deployed 9.4 GWh of energy storage products in Q2, the highest quarterly deployment yet.

Record quarter for energy storage.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Holding 7/5 -c240s. Thankfully, did most of my positioning for P&D via long puts out of concern that this type of scenario would come to pass.

 

[Max Plaid]

Well, P&D is a winner in my book. Also suggests better operational efficiency than I expected. My negativity was wrong.

Yeah, where the hell did those deliveries come from? Not Europe, not China, so US or others like Australia, etc...?

Work to do on my calls now... on the positive side, at least I flipped 10x of them to 100x puts yesterday, that specific trade looks like a good one...

 

[thenewguy1979]

Yeah, where the hell did those deliveries come from? Not Europe, not China, so US or others like Australia, etc...?

Work to do on my calls now... on the positive side, at least I flipped 10x of them to 100x puts yesterday, that specific trade looks like a good one...

Mars

 

[Tachyon]

Mars

Atlantis- all cars were sent overboard

 

[Yoona]

Yeah, where the hell did those deliveries come from? Not Europe, not China, so US or others like Australia, etc...?

the other thread

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If you're actually tracking these, then you'll see that the "wave" is back in effect to some degree this quarter. Norway is rocketing higher. Italy just set a daily record in what will assuredly be an all time record month. You also left out Korea and other asian pacific countries that saw record 2nd month deliveries to the tune of thousands. We'll have to wait to see what their 3rd month will be, if any. The Asia Pacific countries actually offset the weakness in Europe.

And if some of these EU countries continue to rebound into the rest of this month, Q2 will actually catch up to Q1. If you factor in Asia Pacific countries, it will be way ahead of Q1.

Then factor in China 10-12% higher than Q1 and the same in North America, and 425-440k is not out of the question at all. If the numbers come within that range, I think it will be treated well by Wall St.

Looks like I can pour myself a nice glass of whiskey tonight for my hunch throughout the quarter that Europe was being over emphasized and practically every other non country Europe/China/US territory was not given enough attention.

Yeah, where the hell did those deliveries come from? Not Europe, not China, so US or others like Australia, etc...?

Work to do on my calls now... on the positive side, at least I flipped 10x of them to 100x puts yesterday, that specific trade looks like a good one...

Taiwan, Turkey, South Korea, etc...all had very big Q2's. The US though was likely the biggest contributor. That .99% financing really did the trick.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Man finally, quarter after quarter, I've been thinking Energy is due for that breakout quarter. And every earnings call, tried to read through what management was saying about revenue recognition and when to expect it.

And then we finally get the quarter where it starts to happen. Very interested to see Energy's gross margins with this massive jump in revenue along with how Energy's earnings actually materially move Tesla's overall earnings upwards now.

Also, free cash flow will be big on this earnings release.

 

[thenewguy1979]

Market is super red and TSLA is super green. What a day this going to be. Join the ride up gang.

 

[Jim Holder]

We have a gap 209-223, how to trade this?
Itching to BTC short puts at open, but don't want to miss out on a larger run if we get one.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We have a gap 209-223, how to trade this?

I'm thinking we rocket higher through earnings, peak at Robotaxi day, and pull back hard to fill this gap.

That's how I'll be playing it. I also see macro's helping this scenario with a late summer sell off before the elections.

Edit: Of course, it could always fill the gap intraday today, which would be very bullish imo

 

[BornToFly]

I had the opportunity a week or so ago to buy back the 5,000 shares I had lost to CCs after the last ER. I had made enough premium selling Puts that I would have had a slight profit. Effective break even point is $191.5. I didn't buy then because I was worried about a drop back below 160, and I wanted the extra margin protection of cash vs shares. Now I'm kicking myself. I guess I will keep selling Puts.