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September 2021 Order Delivery Dates

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#461
Tararua said:
So, with all the uncertainty and confusion around MYLR deliveries from December or thereabouts on, I thought I might try to summarize all the factors/components in play with regards the cars we'll be getting. If I've missed anything or got anything wrong, dear people, by all means correct me. This is just what I've gleaned from Twitter, Youtube, and posts here.

a. Model Ys up until December would seem to be as they are now: from Fremont with 2170s and no structural battery pack. They're obviously also not using the front and rear single castings.
b. Kato Road seems to already be producing 4680s at some volume. They don't seem to be being produced currently at Giga Nevada
c. It seems that sometime (Xmas? start of 2022? mid 2022?) Fremont will retool the Model Y production line to include 4680s in the structural pack.
d. It doesn't seem that this switch will dramatically increase MY range. Rather, fewer batteries will be used, making the car lighter + more efficient. As well as the higher energy density, the 4680s will charge faster.
e. There's been talk of a MY range increase for months (and we went to 82kwh packs sometime around March 21), so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the MYLR increase range to 345 or something like that (from 326).
f. Giga Austin may start with 2170s in the structural battery pack before switching to 4680s. From what we can tell, the structural packs will be used with the front and rear castings from the start.
g. Giga Austin will have all the tools for far more precise construction/build quality than Fremont, but whether that will be apparent in the initial production ramp with all its bugs and glitches seems somewhat doubtful. EM has said in the past that the initial ramp up is the worst period for car quality.
h. There could well be a period where the MYs from Fremont and Texas feature different batteries (for example: Austin doing 4680s while Fremont continues with 2170s or even vice versa) and the structural pack or not, and whether you get one or the other may just be down to dumb luck. I can't imagine we'd be given the opportunity to choose, as nobody would want the 2170 Ys.
i. There is a ridiculous amount of contingencies at play here in relation to what version of the MY we all get...

I think this covers most things/rumors/uncertainties? I'm curious if September order folks would rather wait for MYs from Austin, or are prepared to wait significantly for 4680s, or whether you'd actually prefer the predictability (and hopefully shorter wait) that comes with a Fremont build.
Click to expand...
I'm fine with 2170. The advantages are proven technology and heavier car (safer in case of collision).
 
#462
Tararua said:
So, with all the uncertainty and confusion around MYLR deliveries from December or thereabouts on, I thought I might try to summarize all the factors/components in play with regards the cars we'll be getting. If I've missed anything or got anything wrong, dear people, by all means correct me. This is just what I've gleaned from Twitter, Youtube, and posts here.

a. Model Ys up until December would seem to be as they are now: from Fremont with 2170s and no structural battery pack. They're obviously also not using the front and rear single castings.
b. Kato Road seems to already be producing 4680s at some volume. They don't seem to be being produced currently at Giga Nevada
c. It seems that sometime (Xmas? start of 2022? mid 2022?) Fremont will retool the Model Y production line to include 4680s in the structural pack.
d. It doesn't seem that this switch will dramatically increase MY range. Rather, fewer batteries will be used, making the car lighter + more efficient. As well as the higher energy density, the 4680s will charge faster.
e. There's been talk of a MY range increase for months (and we went to 82kwh packs sometime around March 21), so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the MYLR increase range to 345 or something like that (from 326).
f. Giga Austin may start with 2170s in the structural battery pack before switching to 4680s. From what we can tell, the structural packs will be used with the front and rear castings from the start.
g. Giga Austin will have all the tools for far more precise construction/build quality than Fremont, but whether that will be apparent in the initial production ramp with all its bugs and glitches seems somewhat doubtful. EM has said in the past that the initial ramp up is the worst period for car quality.
h. There could well be a period where the MYs from Fremont and Texas feature different batteries (for example: Austin doing 4680s while Fremont continues with 2170s or even vice versa) and the structural pack or not, and whether you get one or the other may just be down to dumb luck. I can't imagine we'd be given the opportunity to choose, as nobody would want the 2170 Ys.
i. There is a ridiculous amount of contingencies at play here in relation to what version of the MY we all get...

I think this covers most things/rumors/uncertainties? I'm curious if September order folks would rather wait for MYs from Austin, or are prepared to wait significantly for 4680s, or whether you'd actually prefer the predictability (and hopefully shorter wait) that comes with a Fremont build.
Click to expand...
I would also add a marginally better acceleration for 2022 list. This is just my opinion no source.
 
#463
I am assuming that those of us who booked our Model Y's in September, get a 1 year free premium connectivity? Those who booked after 15th October will be getting just 30 days of Premium connectivity. But our purchase agreements do not specifically mention the trial period so it seemed a bit ambiguous to me.
www.tesla.com

Connectivity | Tesla Support

Connectivity is an important part of all Tesla vehicles, further enhancing the driving experience by providing access to features that require data usage. Find out more about Standard and Premium Connectivity.
www.tesla.com www.tesla.com
 
#464
Tararua said:
So, with all the uncertainty and confusion around MYLR deliveries from December or thereabouts on, I thought I might try to summarize all the factors/components in play with regards the cars we'll be getting. If I've missed anything or got anything wrong, dear people, by all means correct me. This is just what I've gleaned from Twitter, Youtube, and posts here.

a. Model Ys up until December would seem to be as they are now: from Fremont with 2170s and no structural battery pack. They're obviously also not using the front and rear single castings.
b. Kato Road seems to already be producing 4680s at some volume. They don't seem to be being produced currently at Giga Nevada
c. It seems that sometime (Xmas? start of 2022? mid 2022?) Fremont will retool the Model Y production line to include 4680s in the structural pack.
d. It doesn't seem that this switch will dramatically increase MY range. Rather, fewer batteries will be used, making the car lighter + more efficient. As well as the higher energy density, the 4680s will charge faster.
e. There's been talk of a MY range increase for months (and we went to 82kwh packs sometime around March 21), so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the MYLR increase range to 345 or something like that (from 326).
f. Giga Austin may start with 2170s in the structural battery pack before switching to 4680s. From what we can tell, the structural packs will be used with the front and rear castings from the start.
g. Giga Austin will have all the tools for far more precise construction/build quality than Fremont, but whether that will be apparent in the initial production ramp with all its bugs and glitches seems somewhat doubtful. EM has said in the past that the initial ramp up is the worst period for car quality.
h. There could well be a period where the MYs from Fremont and Texas feature different batteries (for example: Austin doing 4680s while Fremont continues with 2170s or even vice versa) and the structural pack or not, and whether you get one or the other may just be down to dumb luck. I can't imagine we'd be given the opportunity to choose, as nobody would want the 2170 Ys.
i. There is a ridiculous amount of contingencies at play here in relation to what version of the MY we all get...

I think this covers most things/rumors/uncertainties? I'm curious if September order folks would rather wait for MYs from Austin, or are prepared to wait significantly for 4680s, or whether you'd actually prefer the predictability (and hopefully shorter wait) that comes with a Fremont build.
Click to expand...

From the designs I've seen of the structural battery pack, I don't think there's any way to make that work with 2170 batteries - the whole point is the 4680 is a bigger unit with such a strong casing that it can serve as both a battery, and a stressed member of the chasis. 2170's are not designed nor the right shape to do that job. Yes, you could put 2170's inside some kind of framing that substitutes for structural support... but that's what the existing proven design already does with a frame around 2170 cells.

$0.02
 
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#465
ZenRockGarden said:
From the designs I've seen of the structural battery pack, I don't think there's any way to make that work with 2170 batteries - the whole point is the 4680 is a bigger unit with such a strong casing that it can serve as both a battery, and a stressed member of the chasis. 2170's are not designed nor the right shape to do that job. Yes, you could put 2170's inside some kind of framing that substitutes for structural support... but that's what the existing proven design already does with a frame around 2170 cells.

$0.02
Click to expand...
You may be right. I was going off a number of comments from the Berlin open day - have linked a short article below. But again, who knows?

structural 2170s?
 
#466
Tararua said:
You may be right. I was going off a number of comments from the Berlin open day - have linked a short article below. But again, who knows?

structural 2170s?
Click to expand...

It's interesting speculation, but mostly cooks down to "they presented a 2170 pack next to the structural 4680 one for comparison, and folks thought the 2170 pack looked different than standard".

We all know Tesla was considering a fallback if the 4680 cells did not get sufficient yield to be used... My bet is they at least looked at some kind of 2170 solution to keep running while rolling out the new factories, but clearly 4680 is the goal and where they will head if at all possible - 2170 as a structural pack is a cludge imo. Better to keep shipping existing model Y's (designed for 2170s) than to do the clumsy throw-away partial step.
 
#468
Tararua said:
So, with all the uncertainty and confusion around MYLR deliveries from December or thereabouts on, I thought I might try to summarize all the factors/components in play with regards the cars we'll be getting. If I've missed anything or got anything wrong, dear people, by all means correct me. This is just what I've gleaned from Twitter, Youtube, and posts here.

a. Model Ys up until December would seem to be as they are now: from Fremont with 2170s and no structural battery pack. They're obviously also not using the front and rear single castings.
b. Kato Road seems to already be producing 4680s at some volume. They don't seem to be being produced currently at Giga Nevada
c. It seems that sometime (Xmas? start of 2022? mid 2022?) Fremont will retool the Model Y production line to include 4680s in the structural pack.
d. It doesn't seem that this switch will dramatically increase MY range. Rather, fewer batteries will be used, making the car lighter + more efficient. As well as the higher energy density, the 4680s will charge faster.
e. There's been talk of a MY range increase for months (and we went to 82kwh packs sometime around March 21), so it wouldn't be a surprise to see the MYLR increase range to 345 or something like that (from 326).
f. Giga Austin may start with 2170s in the structural battery pack before switching to 4680s. From what we can tell, the structural packs will be used with the front and rear castings from the start.
g. Giga Austin will have all the tools for far more precise construction/build quality than Fremont, but whether that will be apparent in the initial production ramp with all its bugs and glitches seems somewhat doubtful. EM has said in the past that the initial ramp up is the worst period for car quality.
h. There could well be a period where the MYs from Fremont and Texas feature different batteries (for example: Austin doing 4680s while Fremont continues with 2170s or even vice versa) and the structural pack or not, and whether you get one or the other may just be down to dumb luck. I can't imagine we'd be given the opportunity to choose, as nobody would want the 2170 Ys.
i. There is a ridiculous amount of contingencies at play here in relation to what version of the MY we all get...

I think this covers most things/rumors/uncertainties? I'm curious if September order folks would rather wait for MYs from Austin, or are prepared to wait significantly for 4680s, or whether you'd actually prefer the predictability (and hopefully shorter wait) that comes with a Fremont build.
Click to expand...


Great summary. I ordered end of September with an initially EDD of April that now just moved up over a month.

When I get closer to my delivery date I will debate heavily about putting my order on hold if it looks like I could get a Texas Y with front/rear casting and structural 4680s sometime in the near future. Not willing to wait another year or anything but would have no problem waiting a few months if it came down to that.

At the same time, I realize that a Fremont y and Texas Y differences probably won’t be noticeable to the user. The range and look will probably be the same. It’s mainly the manufacturing process that will be different and not sure it will matter to the end user.
 
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#469
cusetownusa said:
Great summary. I ordered end of September with an initially EDD of April that now just moved up over a month.

When I get closer to my delivery date I will debate heavily about putting my order on hold if it looks like I could get a Texas Y with front/rear casting and structural 4680s sometime in the near future. Not willing to wait another year or anything but would have no problem waiting a few months if it came down to that.

At the same time, I realize that a Fremont y and Texas Y differences probably won’t be noticeable to the user. The range and look will probably be the same. It’s mainly the manufacturing process that will be different and not sure it will matter to the end user.
Click to expand...
I can see the appeal of getting the latest and greatest but with Tesla's history of quality control a lot of people would stick with a proven configuration.
 
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#473
First ordered model Y LR, midnight grey with tow hitch on September 8. First EDD was January 22. Then a second EDD was added for a late December/January delivery. 2 weeks ago I got a new EDD of November 20 - December 18... With Q4 elivery push, I was hopeful but yesterday....kabooom I got a new ED of jan 5 - feb 02 2022. I still think it's still going to change.... well I hope because I don't wanna put the winter tires on my old car before exchanging it to Tesla FFS.
 
#474
MY-user said:
I can see the appeal of getting the latest and greatest but with Tesla's history of quality control a lot of people would stick with a proven configuration.
Click to expand...

I’m not worried about Texas QC. I actually expect it to be better. They have had plenty of time to perfect the Y from Fremont to Shanghai to Texas/Berlin. If this was a completely new car then I would be concerned but it has almost been 2 years since it came out.
 
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