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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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I'm sick over this stock right now. I jumped in a week ago feeling I was late to the party but I'm a long term believer so I figured I would be ok even if it dropped down in the short term. I then watched all week as the stock fluxuated from low to high 80's. Yesterday it bumped up to where I had bought at $92 so I sold and planned to buy back once it dipped back into the 80's. Immediately after I sold it jumps up to 93+ and really hasn't been back below that as you all know. I'm really hoping to see a dip next week so I can jump back in, anything under 92 would make me feel ok, but sub 90 would be great. What are the odds either of those will happen? I'm a stock market newbie, made 1 trade 15 years ago and made a few bucks off of nokia. Test drove the S 2 weeks ago. I had been telling my wife we needed to buy some stock but being so new to it I wasn't sure how to go about it and figured it out a week late!

Yeah, man, not worth the stress. I was trying to buy and sell and the way this stock moves right now it's just not worth it. My thing now is to hold and never sell and buy more on dips, that way you don't mind if the stock goes up or down.

I agree with MikeC. "Buy and Hold" is definitely the best strategy for lower stress and higher return. Generally speaking, if you believe in a company's long term prospects, it is best to buy shares in that company and sit on them for years, because it is extremely difficult for average retail investors (like myself) to consistently time the market in short term trading.

Consistently buying, and then selling, at exactly the right time, over many transactions, is usually impossible. I always tell people to not let the notion of "perfect" or "optimal" return get in the way of scoring good returns over the long haul. Investment, rather than speculation, is what builds wealth.
 
Disagree with MikeC. The two stated strategies are in direct conflict. If you are buy and hold, then there is no buy on dips. Buy to your full ability now. Dips means you are looking for a local time devaluation. Buy and hold means you're not
 
I agree that to truly "buy and hold" you don't look to buy on dips, but you commit at one price and don't look back. However most people have income coming in monthly and that's why they keep adding to a long position, so then you have multipme "buy and hold" investments.

But if you believe the stock will rise over time there is no point in setting cash aside for buying in later, "on a dip". That would be to think you could time the market. Hell, I wish I had bought more at $30, and getting more at a "dip" from $90 to $80 won't help much with that feeling.
 
I agree that to truly "buy and hold" you don't look to buy on dips, but you commit at one price and don't look back. However most people have income coming in monthly and that's why they keep adding to a long position, so then you have multipme "buy and hold" investments.
Indeed. For example, "dollar cost averaging" and "buy and hold" are not incompatible even though in essence it's a mechanism to buy more when the price is low.

more shares are purchased when prices are low and fewer shares are purchased when prices are high
Dollar cost averaging - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
 
Indeed. For example, "dollar cost averaging" and "buy and hold" are not incompatible even though in essence it's a mechanism to buy more when the price is low.


Dollar cost averaging - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Disagree with your above statement and agree with the Wikipedia definition of dollar cost averaging. If your buying and holding, dollar cost averaging has no meaning, buy it and hold it. Dollar cost averaging implies a trade of value function of time. Buy and hold implies the average of cost invested is negligible because hold in indefinite. The 2 investment philosophies have no practical intersection. It is possible to conduct both with different pools of money, but the two should not be confused as they are completely at odds with each other in goal. If you are buy and hold, then every dollar you have allotted available for the particular investment will be made at the time the dollar is available (such as your monthly income example) regardless of the relative price of the stock (which portends a value correlation to the cost averaging you reference). The two investments methods are both valid, but are not compatible with the same applied money and are invariably at odds with each other in motivation, belief systems, end goals, and most importantly time correlation. In my opinion, it's a mistake to attempt to mix the two with the same asset base. Either pick one or the other, or assign separate assets for each. That would be my considered advice and opinion, respectfully.
 
The two investments methods are both valid, but are not compatible
Guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree here.

To me...

  • "Buy and hold" speaks to your timeline for when to sell (shares to money conversion).
  • "Dollar cost averaging" speaks to an accumulation strategy (money to shares conversion).
  • They are independent and completely compatible.
 
Guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree here.

To me...

  • "Buy and hold" speaks to your timeline for when to sell (shares to money conversion).
  • "Dollar cost averaging" speaks to an accumulation strategy (money to shares conversion).
  • They are independent and completely compatible.

Agree Brian, we'll have to agree to disagree, but with great respect. I believe you are correct, buy-and-hold speaks to the sell timeline, defining an investment belief (right or wrong) that gains are maximized with a buy at current(time of funds available) and SPECIFICALLY that waiting to apply those funds will result in a reduced return. Cost dollar averaging assumes that buying in stages will provide for a lower cost basis as the buy price will drop relative to the current time of funds available OR in exchange of less return, will provide a lower risk due to the odds of a price drop local to the time of funds available. One philosophy addresses specifically and presumes greater return by applying local (time of purchase) price variation (and additionally, if followed to the sell, must also apply itself to the sell process). The two are not compatible in my view and should be at best applied to different sets of monies as a headgear against each other. Buy and hold means, buy when funds are available presuming a cost average buy will result in reduced return over time (right or wrong, it's a diametrically opposite approach the actually applies to the sell side in equal measure). But I salute our agreement to disagree with full respect !! It certainly may really be a semantic argument couched in applying different methods at different times and really may be a testament to my brain's inability to apply both to the same monies at different times of investment!
 
Buy and hold can work-out great, if you have the time.
I bought UTX in jan1999, 29$. Never looked at it through the turbulent years (Internet-bubble, 9/11, Lehmann, Euro-crisis).
I just sold one week ago. 95$

Not too bad, IMHO. I even wished I had bought more.

I'm sure some have done better, but I'm 100% sure that a bunch of people lost a lot of money over the last years, trying to beat the market.
 
If the opportunity is gone forever I'll be sad for sure, but I won't buy back fewer shares than I sold. I sold at $91.4, I think there's a very good chance it could dip below that in the next week, if not, I'll be sad but I'll enjoy all of the money I made and wait for the Space X IPO

After this month's run in Tesla and SolarCity, a SpaceX IPO will be ridiculously expensive.
 
Agree Brian, we'll have to agree to disagree, but with great respect. I believe you are correct, buy-and-hold speaks to the sell timeline, defining an investment belief (right or wrong) that gains are maximized with a buy at current(time of funds available) and SPECIFICALLY that waiting to apply those funds will result in a reduced return. Cost dollar averaging assumes that buying in stages will provide for a lower cost basis as the buy price will drop relative to the current time of funds available OR in exchange of less return, will provide a lower risk due to the odds of a price drop local to the time of funds available. One philosophy addresses specifically and presumes greater return by applying local (time of purchase) price variation (and additionally, if followed to the sell, must also apply itself to the sell process). The two are not compatible in my view and should be at best applied to different sets of monies as a headgear against each other. Buy and hold means, buy when funds are available presuming a cost average buy will result in reduced return over time (right or wrong, it's a diametrically opposite approach the actually applies to the sell side in equal measure). But I salute our agreement to disagree with full respect !! It certainly may really be a semantic argument couched in applying different methods at different times and really may be a testament to my brain's inability to apply both to the same monies at different times of investment!

I'm glad we can all disagree so diplomatically. My strategy is based on being maxed out in TSLA at the moment but having more money coming in every month. My expectation is that the stock price will very likely be higher in several years than it is now, and in short-term will have periods of rising rapidly but there will also likely be potentially steep dips.

My main point was that in the past I would try to sell at the top, only to see it never come back down, which is extremely frustrating and stress-inducing, as the poster I was responding to had expressed. Dollar-cost averaging might be the correct way to do this, but I am having too much fun reading this thread and trying to speculate a little.

Edit:

For example, I had purchased some at 95, then it dropped to 90 and I got some more, then dropped to 85 and I got a little more. With dollar cost averaging I would have bought fewer shares, all at 95, then had to wait until next month. Of course, it could have gone up and I never would have gotten the other shares at all - but if that happened, I'm also happy because the price went up.
 
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I agree with MikeC. "Buy and Hold" is definitely the best strategy for lower stress and higher return. Generally speaking, if you believe in a company's long term prospects, it is best to buy shares in that company and sit on them for years, because it is extremely difficult for average retail investors (like myself) to consistently time the market in short term trading.

Consistently buying, and then selling, at exactly the right time, over many transactions, is usually impossible. I always tell people to not let the notion of "perfect" or "optimal" return get in the way of scoring good returns over the long haul. Investment, rather than speculation, is what builds wealth.


My plan was/is to buy and hold. I talked myself into taking a chance and selling then buying right back in at a slightly lower price after watching it over the past week. Bad luck on my part, I bought at 92 and 30 minutes later it was at 88, then the opposite happened when I sold. I'm trying to be optimistic that it will drop down to at least were I had it before so I can jump back in. I've got 40 grand I can put in and leave long term, shouldn't have got greedy.
 
Likely a really stupid question on my part which shows my ignorance of how IPO's work, but could Elon give any preference to TSLA or SCTY share holders at the IPO of SpaceX?

Usually not. What you need is a good relationship with what used to be called "a full service broker" or a "prime broker" as getting in at the IPO price on a popular offering is extremely difficult. If you have dealings with a major brokerage, you can ask to be "put on the list" or notified, but what usually happens is the brokers have a limited allotment and they place it with their buddies/best clients.

When the stock hits the open market, it's often up $3-$5 immediately (and many of those IPO clients just flip it for a quick profit)
 
I will still buy! :)

It’s possible for SpaceX to make money by contracting with governments and corporations to send their material into orbit or return some of it. Sending people to the Moon or Mars as a private venture would be a financial sinkhole. Nevertheless, Elon envisions devoting his later years (and his greatly multiplied fortune due to Tesla Motors) on his space colonization dreams. I’ll invest heavily in his practical ventures Tesla Motors and SolarCity, but he’ll have to pay for his Mars ticket without my help.
 
It’s possible for SpaceX to make money by contracting with governments and corporations to send their material into orbit or return some of it. Sending people to the Moon or Mars as a private venture would be a financial sinkhole. Nevertheless, Elon envisions devoting his later years (and his greatly multiplied fortune due to Tesla Motors) on his space colonization dreams. I’ll invest heavily in his practical ventures Tesla Motors and SolarCity, but he’ll have to pay for his Mars ticket without my help.

I will go on record predicting he'll make money on all those ventures. Corporate Sponsorship will be ridiculous. You will miss out if you don't trust him
 
I will go on record predicting he'll make money on all those ventures. Corporate Sponsorship will be ridiculous. You will miss out if you don't trust him

Elon's purpose with PayPal, Tesla Motors and SolarCity is to make money, albeit in an environmentally friendly manner. The purpose of most other corporations is to make money for their shareholders. The purpose of SpaceX is to fulfill Elon's dream that can be funded by money earned from his practical projects. I won't divert money that I'm placing into Elon's practical enterprises in order to fund SpaceX.

I trust Elon to make money with his non-space colonization projects. I do not expect to miss out financially from Elon, since I can own a larger share of Tesla Motors, if I own no SpaceX. He has said that when he first created SpaceX he expected to blow most of his PayPal fortune to fulfill a dream, not to make more money. I get it. I've been an enthusiastic amateur astronomer for sixty years and excitedly followed the early space missions. I'll happily cheer for Elon's success in space without my having to pay for it, while continuing to reap the rewards from his earthly projects.
 
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