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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

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You didn't. He has always been very serious about everyone releasing electric vehicles. AJ started laughing first, then I guess Elon realised that his comment was a double-edged sword and then everyone realised it and then it became funny... Like how puns work I guess

Anyway, the more electric cars, the more business for Tesla (since they are still the cream of the crop in EVs), and the less need for Tesla to "educate" people before they can start making purchasing decisions regarding Tesla.. so overall a win for all? (Except oil...)

I agree. I think it started as a sincere comment. Then AJ starts the laugh and turns it to a different way and it becomes apparent now they are just plainly joking about the car, or blow the cover how hard Elon was trying to be diplomatic...

Watch this :
Teslas Musk Laughs at BYD e6 Bloomberg EVUK co uk article - YouTube

It is exactly the same turn of event. Elon was sincere but the reporter/analyst was not.
 
Any predictions on opening tmrw and Friday? I know alot ppl have been waiting for an entry or re-entry point. They will see that that point will be abit more expencive now.
With the Q1 history in mind, they know it wont come lower again. I think there will be several more buyers than sellers tmrw.
And the longs, I dont think we got weak longs after this ones.
What we need is some more 2xx targets, and we are all set. Hopefully some day before 16th of August :)

And Yeah, I bet there is more than 20 mill shorts still. Hopefully the double.
 
Was there any mention of how many cars were built in the quarter? I don't see it in the letter and didn't hear it in the call.

No firm number from the letter, but they said, "In the quarter, we produced several hundred more Model S vehicles for use as service loaners, for
customer test drives and for deliveries to European customers
in Q3."

So I'm guessing "several hundred" is anything more than 200. So the floor would be 5350
 
No firm number from the letter, but they said, "In the quarter, we produced several hundred more Model S vehicles for use as service loaners, for
customer test drives and for deliveries to European customers
in Q3."

So I'm guessing "several hundred" is anything more than 200. So the floor would be 5350

Must subtract the 100 cars delivered in q1 and recognised in q2 because of incomplete paperwork.
 
I'm sure I'm not the only one with this problem. Is there any way to turn an expiring Call Option to a long term capital gain without actually holding the full value of the stock?

Assume I have 10 August 17 135 Options. If I sell the options prior to expiration, I will have a short term gain. If I allow the options to expire, I will end up buying $135,000 worth of Tesla stock, but I don't have this much available in my trading account.

Is there anything else I could do?
 
I'm sure I'm not the only one with this problem. Is there any way to turn an expiring Call Option to a long term capital gain without actually holding the full value of the stock?

Assume I have 10 August 17 135 Options. If I sell the options prior to expiration, I will have a short term gain. If I allow the options to expire, I will end up buying $135,000 worth of Tesla stock, but I don't have this much available in my trading account.

Is there anything else I could do?

You could use margin to exercise but then need to hold the stock for a year before cashing out and paying long-term capital gains tax.

Or you can gift some options to friends or family. I just completed a gift transfer for some Sep13 options I was holding onto. I gave them to some family members who will choose to exercise the options themselves before expiry. And I don't have to pay a cent of tax on any of the gains.
 
You could use margin to exercise but then need to hold the stock for a year before cashing out and paying long-term capital gains tax.

Or you can gift some options to friends or family. I just completed a gift transfer for some Sep13 options I was holding onto. I gave them to some family members who will choose to exercise the options themselves before expiry. And I don't have to pay a cent of tax on any of the gains.

Be careful though because only $13,000 of gifts are tax free per year. Anything more than that and you start eating into your lifetime exclusion amount of $5million (IIRC) or you pay taxes on the gift
 
Added the last two days data points. Remember this was a random start date and different dates would show different results but the general trend is similar. Anyone remember what the after hours pop was after Q1?
image.jpg

Sorry it's only a portion of the graph only have my phone right now.
 
Added the last two days data points. Remember this was a random start date and different dates would show different results but the general trend is similar. Anyone remember what the after hours pop was after Q1?

I remember it went to $68+ in AH on May 8 Q1. I was watching it religiously at the time because we had a lot on the line. My wife was in tears (of relief) watching the AH ticker go up. :)

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Be careful though because only $13,000 of gifts are tax free per year. Anything more than that and you start eating into your lifetime exclusion amount of $5million (IIRC) or you pay taxes on the gift

It's actually $14,000 a year now. Also, actually you can do a joint gift (if you're married) from you and your spouse to another person, so up to $28,000 tax-free. Just need to report it on Form 709 if doing a joint gift.

My wife and I ended up gifting the Sept13 calls to another couple, so we gave up to $28k to the other husband and up to $28k to the other wife. So, ends up being up to $56k from one couple to another.

Update: Ok, so I'll tell more of the story cause it's kind of cool. Not to brag, but to share how $6800 can possibly change the financial outlook of a family's life. So, on May 9th (day after Q1 earnings), I went on an option shopping spree and bought mostly LEAPs and some Dec13/Jan14 calls. Then, I did a quick final purchase of some Sep13 80 strike calls just for fun. Paid $6800 for 10 contracts ($6.8/share).

Anyway, to make a long story short, a few months pass and I'm thinking I could exercise those calls (but all my cash is already in TSLA stock/leaps/options and I would have to use margin), or sell and pay short-term capital gains tax (which wouldn't be cheap). So, I started to think about gifting them and how that might impact another person or family's life. So, I did some research and discovered if I gifted my Sept13 calls, then I wouldn't have to pay any tax, AND the receiving party can then exercise those calls (if they have cash to do so) and hold TSLA stock. If they keep the stock for at least a year, then they pay long-tem capital gains tax off of the gain (cost basis is value of gift when they received it).

Then, I started to think... if someone exercises 10 contracts that's 1000 shares. And if they hold until GenIII is in full production, TSLA could be $500/share and that their shares would be worth $500k. And the problem with most people getting 1000 shares right now is that it's always a difficult time to buy TSLA for someone who isn't a believer in the stock because it can always go down and it can seem over-valued to some people. So, it's hard to buy market price for those who aren't familiar with Tesla. But by me gifting option calls, I'm subsidizing their purchase so that they're getting stock for a huge discount. And I'm even more motivated to subsidize because I don't need to pay short-term capital gains taxes on the gains from my calls.

Anyway, when the stock was about $130, I started to make plans and then started the transfer process. I wanted to make sure my wife and I could transfer all 10 contracts to the other couple before the stock hit $136 or else my 10 Sep13 80 strike calls would be worth $56k and could go over the gift tax limit. It ended up transferring successfully when the stock was $135.

Now the couple we gifted it now can exercise the calls and get 1000 shares of TSLA stock for $80/share. They said they'll do so and keep it at least a few years. If they hold to GenIII full production, that would be awesome and their stock could be worth $500k... not a trivial amount. It could really help that family out. (side note: if TSLA ever gets to $1100 and they still hold the 1000 shares, they could become Teslanaires. :) )

All for just $6800 on May 9th.

If you have some deep ITM calls that are expiring in the next few months and you'll be needing to pay lots of income tax, you might want to consider gifting some to those it might have a big impact on. And you might suggest they exercise and hold for at least a few years too. If anyone does this, let me know (via private message) cause I'd love to hear the story.
 
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The next week for TSLA. Hyperloop?

DaveT - What is your opinion on Tesla for the next few trading days, how will it act? What is your opinion on the letter and conference call? Do you think institutional clients are now going to start piling into Tesla? Do you think this is enough for a several day short squeeze?

NIKKEI is up in early trading, so that is good news. After a three down days in the US markets, it might be time for an uptick tomorrow which would help TSLA as well.

I love that Elon hinted that the Hyperloop could benefit Tesla financially. Sounds like they are going to be producing batteries and drive-trains for the hyperloop vehicles. Elon is a mad genious: open source hyperloop idea and let another billionaire take all the risks and then Tesla supplies the components for the Hyperloop project.
 
Added the last two days data points. Remember this was a random start date and different dates would show different results but the general trend is similar. Anyone remember what the after hours pop was after Q1?
View attachment 27739
Sorry it's only a portion of the graph only have my phone right now.

Theshadows, can you make a complete graph when you get a chance?
Also if you can pre-fill tomorrow's price with AH price so we can see it better, unless you can also factor in Q1's after hour price and project tomorrow's close price strictly by following the curve? thanks!
 
I don't understand why anyone would want to sell in afterhours trading today. I mean geez, the company just announce a great quarter, let the shorts sweat it out a little. At least we got rid of the weakest longs during afterhours today.

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I love how it's so surprising to all these analysts. I was seriously worried that the secret was out because this forum is publicly visible to anyone and you guys had it clearly layed out. But hey, I'm not complaining.

I know right? That is what surprises me most. After I posted my report here on TMC, TSLA went down for two consecutive days leading up to earnings. Pretty much everyone here who modeled Tesla's earnings independently came up with virtually the same numbers. It is truly amazing that the rest of the world didn't see this coming. Shorts are going to have to run for the hills.
 
It was a very nice jump in afterhours but a much less dramatic gain on the day if you include the 6% decline during market hours. Keep in mind that this stock was $145.73 just a few days ago with very, very few people outside this forum thinking 2Q would turn a profit.

I think it'll run a little more in the next couple days. 2Q shows Tesla is executing faster than anticipated and that has meaning for its long term prospects.
 
I love how it's so surprising to all these analysts. I was seriously worried that the secret was out because this forum is publicly visible to anyone and you guys had it clearly layed out. But hey, I'm not complaining.

I think we have Autodata to thank for this. So many people take their Tesla data as gospel -- it's like we're the only ones who know it's completely inaccurate.
 
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