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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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I should also clarify that was a very small point to pick on and the rest of your analysis I agreed with
No worries, it was constructive. It made me think of ways Tesla could surprise in Q3/Q4.
Put it this way, there is probably less room for a surprising surprise in Q3 and Q4. Looking at a nice solid profit in Q3 probably with some indication that supply constraint is cleared. Nice solid profit in Q4 with huge 2014 guidance. Happy to ignore very short term volatility, I think we will see this thing turn into a more sensible-looking momentum stock.
Watch out for Obama btw. He owes a response on the dealer association issue and he's gone screw-Congress militant on climate. Just tweeted about addressing climate change good for business. Cannot keep doing this with credibility while the flagship DOE success story golden child EV business is getting shafted by special interests linked to oil.
Watch out for Obama btw. He owes a response on the dealer association issue and he's gone screw-Congress militant on climate. Just tweeted about addressing climate change good for business. Cannot keep doing this with credibility while the flagship DOE success story golden child EV business is getting shafted by special interests linked to oil.
Acmykguy
Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
A convertible would be a pretty significant design change, so I doubt that. Plus new crash testing, so, no way.
Is anyone worried that for the next few months TSLA will decline slowly if the markets trade sideways?
i agree long term the stock will reach 160+ and but I am not so sure it happens until the beginning of 2014. I'm just hoping it doesn't come back down to sub 120 between now and then as that will be stressful.
i agree long term the stock will reach 160+ and but I am not so sure it happens until the beginning of 2014. I'm just hoping it doesn't come back down to sub 120 between now and then as that will be stressful.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock fall tomorrow due to the lock up expiration on Thursday. If it falls, I think it would be just as good a time to buy as when GS updated their price target. It could even be a better opportunity since I doubt many of the people who bought at $93 intended to sell their shares for a 50 % gain, that's more like a 25-30% gain after short term capital gains taxes.
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Acmykguy
Member
I don't think it will continue a downward trend if you look at the chart posted by austinEV, on the bollinger bands we are near mid point. Thus we may go down a little bit more but my thoughts Re we will go higher than lower. I know several institutions just waiting to buy in. One being my money managers....they have not instituted a position yet....they have ~ 12 billion under management and usually put 2-4% in a position sooooo 3% of that at a tsla price of 140 is 2.5 million shares. My guess is they would do something more around 750,000 to 1 million shares Now keep that in mind that their are many many firms like that out there. I would be a buyer of calls jan 140-160. And not loose any sleep. Plus add a short squeeze and it goes up from here. Even Cramer has changed his tune quite a bit lately.
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Don't think so. Why do that now and realize those kind of. Taxes. Companies that bought in at that price do not sell into weakness. They sell into strength and there is too much upside to go before the profit taking takes ahold. My managers hold for a heck of a lot more than 50%. Many of my holdings are 100-160% gains and the. They will sell off little bits and pieces only to reinvest into another company that eventually makes 100%
If it falls further tomorrow I will be using margin to purchase some more Jan calls ... I wont hold them that long but after run up I will sell enough to get off of margin
Yeah, I was thinking just an announcement of a convertible alpha design that would need to go through the various development and production phases. But an announcement like that could signal increased demand for when it does get released.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
I think they are focusing on the Model X, and since they are not demand constrained on the S I don't see a need to create more demand that they can't meet. Plus they should really focus on the G3 car before doing a major redesign of the S for a limited market. How well do large luxury sports sedan convertibles sell? I can't think of one off hand.
MoshMusic
Member
I have one theory that might help a Q3 surprise. A friend of mine just got delivery of his Model S at the end of July. When he ordered it, there was a waiting period of 3-4 months. However, Tesla called him up and told him they were speeding up manufacturing, and he'd be able to get his car at the beginning of June. The problem was, he wanted to finish his lease on his previous car before taking delivery, and asked if they could hold the car until the original time line of July. Tesla said no problem, and that this was actually an issue that a lot of customers were having.
So, it's possible that a lot of cars that were produced and ready for delivery in time for Q2 will actually be "surprise" revenue for Q3. Just a thought.... :wink:
So, it's possible that a lot of cars that were produced and ready for delivery in time for Q2 will actually be "surprise" revenue for Q3. Just a thought.... :wink:
I will verify, MoshMusic, a similar situation for me. I will not be able to take delivery of my Model S until after the first week of October (ie, Q4). TM called me yesterday and was overjoyed to share with me the fact that they could present it on Sept 19th (ie, Q3).
Sorry, Charlie, no can do - I had to reply.
Now, here is a case where I think the corporate mindset is that Jam Today is better than Jam Tormorrow...and TM rather would book that sale in Q3. However, as a long-term shareholder, my feeling is "Quarter Schmuarter" - it makes nonevermind in which quarter this particular sale gets booked.
I WISH all this investment discussion occurred other than under the "Short Term Price Movements" thread - but this is the one that gets the most attention, so.......
Sorry, Charlie, no can do - I had to reply.
Now, here is a case where I think the corporate mindset is that Jam Today is better than Jam Tormorrow...and TM rather would book that sale in Q3. However, as a long-term shareholder, my feeling is "Quarter Schmuarter" - it makes nonevermind in which quarter this particular sale gets booked.
I WISH all this investment discussion occurred other than under the "Short Term Price Movements" thread - but this is the one that gets the most attention, so.......
Yeah, what the chart says is that today could have been the low point (perhaps forever) or intraday tomorrow it will find the local low point. May have missed it. But, if it heads south .5% tomorrow you might want to consider that your invitation for a slow 2-3 week run up (if history holds).
I do think they will release two versions of Model S soon. 1) Coupe 2) AWD right around winter starts. I think 2 has more chances than #1.
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