When you say "volatility" without specifying I understand that as the volatility of the common. You are assuming that the implied volatility of the option would be the same as the volatility of the common, which is not necessarily the case. But we are clearly OT now.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
- Start date
- Status
When you say "volatility" without specifying I understand that as the volatility of the common. You are assuming that the implied volatility of the option would be the same as the volatility of the common, which is not necessarily the case. But we are clearly OT now.
By the way, the flip side of a covered call strategy is that you might lose your position in the stock. If you are in for the long haul and then the stock rises sharply after you did covered calls, you will either have to put in some extra money or get fewer shares when you buy back the stocks that were called away from you.
I am not saying this to advise against the strategy - I did this myself - only to make people aware of the risk. I did some covered calls in TSLA earlier this summer, which cost me quite a bit.
I am not saying this to advise against the strategy - I did this myself - only to make people aware of the risk. I did some covered calls in TSLA earlier this summer, which cost me quite a bit.
We should be precise with terminology. Unless you buy-back the calls for more than you sold them for, then the calls didn't cost you anything. At least the way I use the word cost.
- - - Updated - - -
Heh. Some of us are looking for our next buying opportunity. I'm not sure 139 is it, yet.
I suspect the next two days will see swings between 135 and 142. Settling at 140 on Friday close. The following week is where we will begin to see slow upward movement. This is little more than a hunch. I will add to my position if it goes to 130
As much as I want to say Bull, the trend is looking like a Bear. Can we say Pig?
Of course TSLA is a great innovative company that just had a great 2nd quarter. I think the sentiment changed because we were expecting the stock to go north of 160 after earnings, not dive to 139.
I am similar. I suspect it will open lower tomorrow on whatever lock-up thing happens (good question whoever asked is tomorrow the day the lockup expires, or Friday?) and turn around in a mini-relief rally and the profit-taking correction will have run it's course. All this assumes there is not some fundamental change out there.
All true. But this is the thread were we can whine about short term movements
I don't think anyone has addressed that lock-up selling question - when does it actually happen? pre-market? market open? middle of the day?
Anyway, assuming they get to sell it from market open - I'm expecting a dive at the open but this will present a very nice price to buy in so we might see a steady climb to (dare I say it?) 150 by the end of Friday. (Several sources have shown that there are many buyers waiting for a "good price" to buy in and everyone is trying to gauge the "bottoming" out of this current temporary downtrend...)
That would be my extremely uninformed guess.
Anyway, assuming they get to sell it from market open - I'm expecting a dive at the open but this will present a very nice price to buy in so we might see a steady climb to (dare I say it?) 150 by the end of Friday. (Several sources have shown that there are many buyers waiting for a "good price" to buy in and everyone is trying to gauge the "bottoming" out of this current temporary downtrend...)
That would be my extremely uninformed guess.
Will I get my shares back?
I'm getting close to the money... It will be interesting to see if those 2.9M actually hit the market tomorrow. The day traders could be playing a $400 million game of hot potato the last half hour before market close. If this happens I should be able to buy my shares back at the "discount" of -(266%) on Friday.
I'm getting close to the money... It will be interesting to see if those 2.9M actually hit the market tomorrow. The day traders could be playing a $400 million game of hot potato the last half hour before market close. If this happens I should be able to buy my shares back at the "discount" of -(266%) on Friday.
You are right in that "loss" might be a more precise word than "cost". But whether you buy the calls back at a loss or are forced to sell stock at way below the market price is an equivalent loss/cost. In both cases you regret with your wallet having sold the calls.
I wouldn't call it a loss either.You are right in that "loss" might be a more precise word than "cost". But whether you buy the calls back at a loss or are forced to sell stock at way below the market price is an equivalent loss/cost. In both cases you regret with your wallet having sold the calls.
You didn't start with X dollars and end up with < X after the dust settled. I would call that scenario a loss.
More precisely, anything that simplifies in the extreme to ...
... is not a "loss".
I'm not convinced that many will panic-dump their shares on the market the day their lockup expires.
- - - Updated - - -
We're discussing a specific strategy that has a beginning and an end, and which is separate from the investment in the common. If you executed the strategy, you ended up with less money than if you didn't. To me, that strategy obviously made you a loss. Yes, the loss was offset by a rise in the common, but that position was there whether you executed this hedging strategy or not.
Oh and EM himself purchased $100m of those lock-up shares which he has publicly stated he will NOT sell. I believe most of the investors who bought those shares were also instituitional. So I'm guessing any 'dive' will be minimal (between 5 to 10% maybe?)
- - - Updated - - -
Good point so it looks like there is no consensus here as to whether the stock will jump or dump tomorrow...
- - - Updated - - -
Good point so it looks like there is no consensus here as to whether the stock will jump or dump tomorrow...
So we clearly have different terminology we're drawing from. I'll try to keep that in mind going forward when I read your posts so, hopefully, I don't get confused every time you use words like "loss". Oh well. Cheers.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Dipped my toe back in the water just before the close. I bought Sept. $160s for $3. Very small move relative to my position, I'm just hoping for a quick double, then I'm back out of that.
What lock-up are you referring to? I've never seen a lock-up related to a public offering, and don't remember anything about one from the capital raise... Can anyone provide any specifics on this?
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Poll
