Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013

[ckessel]

Last earnings day dropped 14 pts.

You mean earnings day before earnings were announced, right? The stock went bonkers at open the following day.

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You completely missed the whole point of my post, which is to buy now and not wait for an earnings day drop. TSLA is at $178 today and will be at $220 on earnings day.

It's only about 3.5 weeks from now to earnings. You think we'll have a ~25% rise in that time? Looking back over the last couple months, that certainly seems possible, but it's hard to extrapolate what the last couple weeks mean going forward as they've broken the trend.

 

[sleepyhead]

I don't think I did misunderstand your post. I disagree but lets wait for the day and find out. may not bet at 178 but I believe 1 -2 % on the day of report is not even going to be close. would I advocate selling the day before and then buying back...NO. but I will be prepared to see the usual large percentage drop the day of report.

Just so people don't misunderstand me, I don't think it is going to drop on the day of earnings at all. I think that it will be going up on the day of the earnings announcement. I am saying that if it does happen go down, it won't be by more that 2% like the previous drops we had.

I hope that you are right and it drops a lot on earnings day, but I am pretty positive it will be going up instead.

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You mean earnings day before earnings were announced, right? The stock went bonkers at open the following day.

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It's only about 3.5 weeks from now to earnings. You think we'll have a ~25% rise in that time? Looking back over the last couple months, that certainly seems possible, but it's hard to extrapolate what the last couple weeks mean going forward as they've broken the trend.

That's what I think, but I wouldn't be making any bets on it. The most likely scenario is that it stays below $200. I am just saying what I think will happen.

What I was really trying to say is that waiting for a potential pullback on the day of earnings (which will probably never come) to get into TSLA is a bad idea.

Either get in now, while it is cheap or wait until congress settles this mess and get in then (you will probably pay a 5% - 10% premium if you wait). The upside to waiting though is that if you get in now, the politicians can screw this up and the markets will start tanking hard this week. If you wait till earnings then you might have to pay 20% above today's price to get in.

 

[ckessel]

What I was really trying to say is that waiting for a potential pullback on the day of earnings (which will probably never come) to get into TSLA is a bad idea.

Right, gotcha. The pullbacks tend to only look good relative to the previous day, not to a month before

the politicians can screw this up and the markets will start tanking hard this week.

Do you think it's worth spending a small amount in 1-2 week puts as a hedge on this? I'm thinking something like a 165 which are about $1 each.

 

[brysondad]

Futures down 100 PTs now. Monday looks risky

 

[Sus]

Futures down 100 PTs now. Monday looks risky

That sucks.

 

[Renaud]

Now checking the pre-market: -1,61%...

Good luck in all your trades!

 

[justthateasy]

Now checking the pre-market: -1,61%...

Good luck in all your trades!

And falling......

 

[Clemsons2k]

Looks like holding onto those puts I got last week was a good idea after all

 

[v12 to 12v]

Just so people don't misunderstand me, I don't think it is going to drop on the day of earnings at all. I think that it will be going up on the day of the earnings announcement. I am saying that if it does happen go down, it won't be by more that 2% like the previous drops we had.

I got the impression that the market did a knee jerk "sell on the news" last quarter. It took a few days for the market to digest what Elon was saying and interpret what it means for the company. Once they slept on it, we were off to the races.

 

[Gtoffo]

And falling......

I knew we had a 80% chance of seeing the whole market tank today.....and yet I just couldn't resist buying on friday.... irrational me. Now I will pay dearly.

 

[mrdoubleb]

I knew we had a 80% chance of seeing the whole market tank today.....and yet I just couldn't resist buying on friday.... irrational me. Now I will pay dearly.

Same boat... waited until some news came out Friday on a possible agreement until the end of the weekend and jumped in @178.

I am now thinking whether it makes sense to sell some of that early today, book some losses, but come back in when it goes even lower today or in the next few days. It is hard to guess though... no one knows how low it will open and how low it will go.

I am long, so might just as well sit this one out, but the temptation is big to buy more at lower prices - only i went all in on Friday so need to sell some to buy some...

 

[Clemsons2k]

Same boat... waited until some news came out Friday on a possible agreement until the end of the weekend and jumped in @178.

I am now thinking whether it makes sense to sell some of that early today, book some losses, but come back in when it goes even lower today or in the next few days. It is hard to guess though... no one knows how low it will open and how low it will go.

I am long, so might just as well sit this one out, but the temptation is big to buy more at lower prices - only i went all in on Friday so need to sell some to buy some...

I would just sit on your shares. If you are long then the stock will come back up and surpass where you bought in on friday. Selling at a loss and then trying to time the dips perfectly may not benefit you enough to be worth the hassle. Unless you just enjoy complications

 

[blakegallagher]

grr ... can someone sell a quick 40k shares at market and drop the price down a bit more for me .... missed out on a limit buy order by about 10 cents earlier and need it to drop to execute .... (need to finish setting up my IB account badly)

 

[mrdoubleb]

I would just sit on your shares. If you are long then the stock will come back up and surpass where you bought in on friday. Selling at a loss and then trying to time the dips perfectly may not benefit you enough to be worth the hassle. Unless you just enjoy complications

Yeah, you are right. I've tried timing it before and it almost never works out - at least for a newbie like me. Anyway, it is comeing back a bit, so who knows, maybe it won't be a complete freefall today after all.

The fundamentals of Tesla have not changed, so I guess the only way we would see a major drop is if the US does deafult on the 17th. I know the politicians are playing chicken right now, but i hope they are not that reckless.

 

[Renaud]

This reminds me of what a colleagues said when he test drove a P85: " Feels like being in a roller-coaster!"
Exactly what the stock has been doing for the last couple of days...playing with my nerves! I've got Calls (all of them still in the money...) expiring this friday, next friday and then the 16th of November.
Don't need that much to be in the greenish area, but all this default stuff is ruining my game...

 

[spacekadet]

I hope everyone has some cash ready! My prediction is that the stock market will fall at least until the 16th. We will see if the US politicians can agree on something by then. If they can't, then watch out! The US' credit rating will be downgraded, then it'll be the best buying opportunity of the year!

I'll be putting in 20% of my cash on Wednesday to buy some options. If a deal is made, then all of my cash goes in on the 17th. If not, I'm pulling out 100% from the market.

Good luck everyone!

 

[braski]

100% of cash on options can't be a good thing, and seems even worse for you long-term if it actually works out

 

[Renaud]

So Spacekadet, considering the uncertainties, I think it would be wise I sell now my friday's Call, just break-even, and keep the cash for a more certain "deal" towards the end of the week?

 

[spacekadet]

100% of cash on options can't be a good thing, and seems even worse for you long-term if it actually works out

Common shares of TSLA is my main investment with an average cost of $65. I'm not selling that for years, except to buy a model E or a 4wd model S. This is the perfect time for options; the debt ceiling issue and the upcoming earnings report is the perfect combination in my opinion. I have learned a tough lesson from the debt ceiling disaster in the 2011 and it's working out really well for me so far this time around!

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So Spacekadet, considering the uncertainties, I think it would be wise I sell now my friday's Call, just break-even, and keep the cash for a more certain "deal" towards the end of the week?

Hi Renaud, it's just my opinion and prediction, but from what I've seen, the US politicians are horrible at their jobs and compromising. They will not reach an agreement until the last minute. I don't believe they will actually let the debt default; that would be catastrophic... The banks will not like that, and that's who funds the politicians.

The tricky part is that October 17th is not the deadline for default. It is the date when the US will have to spend cash from their wallet to pay back its debt, and that cash will run out very fast. My guess is that this will extend beyond the 17th and US' credit rating will be downgraded. This will cause a mini-crash in the stock market as it did in 2011. This is when we buy!

But please remember that I can't see the future. That is why I'm risking only 20% of my cash reserve on the 16th just in case a deal is reached on the 17th. I currently only have long-term common shares of TSLA and some short term puts.

Good luck!

 

[Jack6591]

Back above $178..........Man this keeps me occupied.