Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Apparently not well enough :wink:
Aaarg Acronyms.
I do remember your 6 wheel weird looking truck in your pic though and your unbeatable knowledge in battery.
You can install our site as a web app on your iOS device by utilizing the Add to Home Screen feature in Safari. Please see this thread for more details on this.
Note: This feature may not be available in some browsers.
Apparently not well enough :wink:
Just to clarify, I wrote that when TSLA was a $140, but then when it dipped back into the 130s, I made a small purchase just in case. I have been buying a little more around 120, because TSLA is a good value at that price. I still think that the risk is to the downside. I have put it on record that TSLA will bottom out at $109-$110 and that is the lowest is will go. Unless there is another material negative event, in which case it may head a lot lower. I am ready to buy more TSLA if it goes down more from here. I am waiting for the $110 mark before making a big purchase. If a negative event causes the stock to go to $110, then it might not be a good time to buy though.
The risk is to the downside, but just in case some very positive news comes out, I have already taken a substantial TSLA position. I am waiting for a better opportunity though, that should come over the next couple of weeks, to buy a lot more TSLA.
Thanks again justthateasy for being so specific and sharing your insights. Very, very much appreciated. I think your posture and strategy is 100% right on.
Thank you for your honesty sleepyhead. I really appreciate your selfless contribution to this site. It's helped me out immensley. I only wish I had found this site many months ago.
I'm in the same situation having purchased at $137. Last week REALLY hurt. I thought for sure 132 was the bottom as did many others. I was floored (or should I say pissed) when TSLA blew right through $132 to current levels in a day with no negative catalyst. I'm now seriously concerned about this whole NFLX 2011 comparison scenario I'm reading about. I have zero confidence in $119 as a bottom. The chart looks eerily similar to the chart right before the drop from $132 to $119. It's frustrating that every little thing that involves TSLA is on the front page and is usually spun negatively by the media if possible. Any negative catalyst with the ridiculous timing of the 3rd fire can't happen before Q4 ER. I'm bullish TSLA and love everything about the company, but am also secretly rooting for the stock to drop so that I can buy more at a much lower price. I just can't see this $119 'support' holding. $132 was supposed to hold. The same people saying $132 was definitely the bottom are now saying $119 is definitely the bottom. I feel like if I purchase more in the $120's, then I'll wake next week to see the stock at $100 or less. I like what justthateasy had to say and I'm planning to follow his advice and look at buying again down in the 80's, with enough reserves to buy again if it goes lower and with a strong hope that GenIII and the giga-factory play out as envisioned by Elon.
Musk also said that Model S sales are higher than expected so far in the fourth quarter. Earlier this week the car received the highest owner satisfaction score in a Consumer Reports survey.
Here's an agnostic statement which I think applies to what justthateasy is saying.
I want the whole EV marketplace to grow. I want everyone trying to build EVs to thrive. Especially those creating them for more than just compliance reasons. I also want battery storage to grow to 500 Wh/kg so that all auto makers can use high density, safe and long-lasting batteries for the next gen of EVs from pickup trucks to motorcycles to lawn mowers. In fact, why are lawn mowers not participating in the move to electrification? They are a high-polluter and are said to put more particulates into the atmosphere than our cars do when comparing runtime hours.
What I think Tesla fans miss is this agnostic view. They believe that Tesla, and only Tesla, is the company that will rule the EV world and will become the largest automaker in the world. I doubt that will happen but they are at least Tesla is showing other automakers that people are willing to spend more on more. More range, more size, luxury, safety and other factors. Car makers do need to make a profit and as such, need to see how EVs fit into their overall budget plan. If BMW and Chevy are losing any money on the i3 and Volt now, then they need to figure out how they can make their cars cheaper so profit can be brought forward into the budget so they can make more models.
Tesla will succeed but I think it is unrealistic on the other side thinking it will become the biggest automaker in the world. I think it will be a really interesting company to watch for the next 5-10 years. But I doubt that the company can produce 500,000 units per year without adding a factory in at least Asia and also Mexico. This is a high-cost industry, automaking, and as such, the stock being traded like a tech-stock is going to be a problem long term and eventually the stock and the financials will come into lock-step like (F), (GM) and others.
Thanks for the catch and correction. Hours after that post, I realized that I remember reading your posts saying that you had been picking up shares here and there.
As for seeing the movement to the 200-day MA/109 level, assuming we get there, I think that level will be the true pivot point in the direction TSLA goes in the short-mid term. One thing about that level however, do you think it will take negative news for it to go lower or could a lower move be attributed to the stock's natural movement/technicals? Personally, I still think TSLA is bound to technicals for the short-mid term where we'll end up seeing a NFLX situation.
Thank you for the praise but do take what I post on here with a grain of salt because everything I or anyone else posts could easily be turned on its head. I've been wrong plenty of times in the past when it comes to my trades but I do take those times as lessons on what I can improve in order to better capitalize what I do from now on.
What I posted the other day where TSLA could fall in the 80s is really a scenario that I set up for myself but decided to share on here. As I stated earlier, I think we might have a NFLX scenario but I could easily be wrong. I just want to make the disclaimer that this is more of a "what if" scenario if we are indeed seeing TSLA follow NFLX's price movement and not trading advice.
xhawk:
"Tesla also has supercharger network which will lead to significant income from royalties"
Royalties from whom? I assume that you assume that someone like GM or other J1772 users will be signing up for supercharging? Why is that?
Onboard AC inverted charging units on all EVs except Tesla, are slow. From 3.3KW to 6.6KW and a few others. They have a general style of offering charge-at-home solutions that require minimal upgrade of home wiring systems and the ability to add 40-100 miles per night of charge at 3.3KW to 6.6KW. The Leaf and other strict EVs will offer CHaDEMO and other high-throughput DC fast charging for longer trips but nobody is buying an EV to go on long trips - or very few are. Down the road (10-30 years) this may be more of the case when larger SUVs and Vans hold 500 Wh/kg or denser batteries and can take the family to travel hockey games 300 miles away using 140 kWh onboard subsystems. Until then, cars like the Chevy Volt and Tesla Model S are the only real "road trip" cars - well, include the Ford Energi twins and a few other serial hybrids which operate like the Volt.
As for sustainability, it is always the debate of which is better during this time of transition. Is it Volt owners using a little bit of gas and driving over 200mpg or is it a holistic approach of EV and only EV? This is the "religious" debate among EV enthusiasts.
Anyway - I doubt we see any royalties to Tesla from anyone else. Given that the price for access of an actual Tesla MS60 driver is well above the cost of electricity supplied - $2000 - 2500 - I doubt any deal Tesla offers others will be at a low enough price. If any deal is offered, it should be on a per-kWh cost of perhaps .25/kWh for emergency trips or high convenience. But with many secondary companies out there building DC fast charging systems already (800+ in Europe are slated, as an example). This is why Tesla is selling the alternative - CHaDEMO cables for the MS at $1000.
amenLast time I want to comment on this, but I feel the "negative" comments are being taken incorrectly. I have no problem with hearing both sides of the argument, bear and bull. I think it's dangerous to only hear the bull case. The issue I have is when someone has nothing but negative to say, like Peterson. When one of his argument fails or gets stale, he moves on to the next. I saw him comment on one of the articles out this morning on how tesla releases information. You can say that TSLA is a $20 stock but still see the value in the company long term and be pro EV, it's not about silencing those that don't think the stock is worth $250 now. If you can see nothing of value in the company or the stock, why are you here? Place your bear bet and get lost, stop spewing known false information in every post.
We can just move on and keep in mind that there are paid posters and ppl with multiple accounts on this forum. That's what I didn't like. I actually really respect shorts like Realist.
Moving on, the algorithm of the bot that's pointed to Tesla stock is new. Like Curt pointed out. It begins about an hour after market starts as its signature, indicating it is only one bot. I haven't been following the stock market closely, it might be a new trend amongst bot programmers to use thinner volume to manipulate easier. Which means that the bot is not a scalping bot that earns based on. volume, but written to trigger stop losses.
If it is the general trend observed in other stocks, do correct me.
if we can all agree Tesla has been an incredible success from just a couple years ago to now then why not think the trajectory of success will continue? In 2-3 more years time there may be Tesla successes that even now are hard to dream of.
Here are some dream catalysts:
-giga Factory financing by some major partner(s) like Samsung, LG, Google, Apple? Talk of a 2nd or 3rd Giga Factory even
-model x best car ever, better than S and huge hit
-model E prototype released and reservations over 100k before production begins (I think this will be a lock and could be 500k)
-military deal
-police cars deal
-pickup truck design released
-plans for first electric plane prototype announced
-US laws change to allow selling direct to consumer by Tesla without any more hassle from dealers
-tesla develops new battery that can go 500+ miles between charges
-batteries sold to homeowners as backup instead of generators, goes well with solar if someone wants to be off the grip especially
there are so many more successes that will or may come for Tesla that I can't even imagine but am excited to know are out there.
Perfect, thanks for this update!Sooooo anyways.... short-term price movement.....
Looks like we ventured out of the channel only to get pulled back in...for now. Today and tomorrow will be very telling of the strength of this channel.
Many people posting on this thread seem well versed on the subject, and I was wondering if anyone could recommend a book on the subject of Technical Analysis as it applies to the market.
Welcome to the discussion group, AKPilot. You might want to consider the primer I wrote on technical analysis that is published by McGraw-Hill: http://www.invest-store.com/curtrenz/
that's what they said about aapl at $700 before it went to $400. And apple is actually making money... so much that they are having problems returning it to shareholders.