Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Aaarg Acronyms.
I do remember your 6 wheel weird looking truck in your pic though and your unbeatable knowledge in battery.
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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Aaarg Acronyms.
I do remember your 6 wheel weird looking truck in your pic though and your unbeatable knowledge in battery.
Thanks for the catch and correction. Hours after that post, I realized that I remember reading your posts saying that you had been picking up shares here and there.
As for seeing the movement to the 200-day MA/109 level, assuming we get there, I think that level will be the true pivot point in the direction TSLA goes in the short-mid term. One thing about that level however, do you think it will take negative news for it to go lower or could a lower move be attributed to the stock's natural movement/technicals? Personally, I still think TSLA is bound to technicals for the short-mid term where we'll end up seeing a NFLX situation.
Thank you for the praise but do take what I post on here with a grain of salt because everything I or anyone else posts could easily be turned on its head. I've been wrong plenty of times in the past when it comes to my trades but I do take those times as lessons on what I can improve in order to better capitalize what I do from now on.
What I posted the other day where TSLA could fall in the 80s is really a scenario that I set up for myself but decided to share on here. As I stated earlier, I think we might have a NFLX scenario but I could easily be wrong. I just want to make the disclaimer that this is more of a "what if" scenario if we are indeed seeing TSLA follow NFLX's price movement and not trading advice.
Over the weekend several people in the forum have been complaining about others who have been posting "negative" comments about Tesla/TSLA. I think that some of the claims of the posts being negative are valid while others are being perceived as negative but is really agnostic in either direction.
I just want to make a few things clear about myself and my intentions when it comes to Tesla Motors the company and TSLA the stock.
I can't say it enough how much I believe in Tesla Motors and what this company has managed to accomplish in the last decade. Tesla is a 10 year old automobile/tech company that has single-handedly set a standard in electric vehicles against the 100 year old giants. By the time the rest of the guys get their act together and release some real EV's, Tesla will have nearly a two decade lead ahead of the closest competitor. Tesla Motors will be such as success that it will be the automobile company of the next 100 years.
At the same time, I realize that regardless of how well Tesla Motors is doing, TSLA is moving independently of it on a daily basis. I have been trading for a few years now and one important lesson I learned along the way is the fact that a stock's daily movements are independent of the company its associated with. As far as TSLA goes, it's currently in a downtrend despite how well the company is doing.
With that said, I come to this forum to read other people's thoughts and contribute my own. I think the ideas that are exchanged here are a valuable resource for anyone invested in TSLA. On a personal level, I have never shorted TSLA, opened a second user account in order to praise myself, or posted anything negative in the hopes of driving TSLA down. I have been trading TSLA since it was in the 20s and have been in and out of the stock many times until I decided to hold for longer than usual during the massive run between May and October of this year. I was stopped out of those shares in late October/early November to defend my profit and I quickly bought back in before earnings hoping for a post earnings pop. When that pop didn't happen, I quickly made an exit (at a loss) and have been waiting for a better buying opportunity since.
There have been plenty of people here who have made it known that they exited their positions and are also waiting for a better buying opportunity since Q3 earnings/third fire dump. Even the most well known/respected people in the forum have been talking about TSLA's overall downtrend. I get that because of the downtrend talk, it's easy to think that some people are spreading negativity to "drive the stock down" but I assure you, unless we say something absolutely negative about Tesla Motors and TSLA, it's just downtrend talk, nothing more nothing less. I think that it is fairly easy to spot those who post with a clear agenda (i.e. a SA drone) but if you can't spot it and think downtrend talk is the same as an anti-Tesla post, you might want to think very hard before your next post.
I just want to make a few things clear about myself and my intentions when it comes to Tesla Motors the company and TSLA the stock.
I can't say it enough how much I believe in Tesla Motors and what this company has managed to accomplish in the last decade. Tesla is a 10 year old automobile/tech company that has single-handedly set a standard in electric vehicles against the 100 year old giants. By the time the rest of the guys get their act together and release some real EV's, Tesla will have nearly a two decade lead ahead of the closest competitor. Tesla Motors will be such as success that it will be the automobile company of the next 100 years.
At the same time, I realize that regardless of how well Tesla Motors is doing, TSLA is moving independently of it on a daily basis. I have been trading for a few years now and one important lesson I learned along the way is the fact that a stock's daily movements are independent of the company its associated with. As far as TSLA goes, it's currently in a downtrend despite how well the company is doing.
With that said, I come to this forum to read other people's thoughts and contribute my own. I think the ideas that are exchanged here are a valuable resource for anyone invested in TSLA. On a personal level, I have never shorted TSLA, opened a second user account in order to praise myself, or posted anything negative in the hopes of driving TSLA down. I have been trading TSLA since it was in the 20s and have been in and out of the stock many times until I decided to hold for longer than usual during the massive run between May and October of this year. I was stopped out of those shares in late October/early November to defend my profit and I quickly bought back in before earnings hoping for a post earnings pop. When that pop didn't happen, I quickly made an exit (at a loss) and have been waiting for a better buying opportunity since.
There have been plenty of people here who have made it known that they exited their positions and are also waiting for a better buying opportunity since Q3 earnings/third fire dump. Even the most well known/respected people in the forum have been talking about TSLA's overall downtrend. I get that because of the downtrend talk, it's easy to think that some people are spreading negativity to "drive the stock down" but I assure you, unless we say something absolutely negative about Tesla Motors and TSLA, it's just downtrend talk, nothing more nothing less. I think that it is fairly easy to spot those who post with a clear agenda (i.e. a SA drone) but if you can't spot it and think downtrend talk is the same as an anti-Tesla post, you might want to think very hard before your next post.
Here's an agnostic statement which I think applies to what justthateasy is saying.
I want the whole EV marketplace to grow. I want everyone trying to build EVs to thrive. Especially those creating them for more than just compliance reasons. I also want battery storage to grow to 500 Wh/kg so that all auto makers can use high density, safe and long-lasting batteries for the next gen of EVs from pickup trucks to motorcycles to lawn mowers. In fact, why are lawn mowers not participating in the move to electrification? They are a high-polluter and are said to put more particulates into the atmosphere than our cars do when comparing runtime hours.
What I think Tesla fans miss is this agnostic view. They believe that Tesla, and only Tesla, is the company that will rule the EV world and will become the largest automaker in the world. I doubt that will happen but they are at least Tesla is showing other automakers that people are willing to spend more on more. More range, more size, luxury, safety and other factors. Car makers do need to make a profit and as such, need to see how EVs fit into their overall budget plan. If BMW and Chevy are losing any money on the i3 and Volt now, then they need to figure out how they can make their cars cheaper so profit can be brought forward into the budget so they can make more models.
Tesla will succeed but I think it is unrealistic on the other side thinking it will become the biggest automaker in the world. I think it will be a really interesting company to watch for the next 5-10 years. But I doubt that the company can produce 500,000 units per year without adding a factory in at least Asia and also Mexico. This is a high-cost industry, automaking, and as such, the stock being traded like a tech-stock is going to be a problem long term and eventually the stock and the financials will come into lock-step like (F), (GM) and others.
I want the whole EV marketplace to grow. I want everyone trying to build EVs to thrive. Especially those creating them for more than just compliance reasons. I also want battery storage to grow to 500 Wh/kg so that all auto makers can use high density, safe and long-lasting batteries for the next gen of EVs from pickup trucks to motorcycles to lawn mowers. In fact, why are lawn mowers not participating in the move to electrification? They are a high-polluter and are said to put more particulates into the atmosphere than our cars do when comparing runtime hours.
What I think Tesla fans miss is this agnostic view. They believe that Tesla, and only Tesla, is the company that will rule the EV world and will become the largest automaker in the world. I doubt that will happen but they are at least Tesla is showing other automakers that people are willing to spend more on more. More range, more size, luxury, safety and other factors. Car makers do need to make a profit and as such, need to see how EVs fit into their overall budget plan. If BMW and Chevy are losing any money on the i3 and Volt now, then they need to figure out how they can make their cars cheaper so profit can be brought forward into the budget so they can make more models.
Tesla will succeed but I think it is unrealistic on the other side thinking it will become the biggest automaker in the world. I think it will be a really interesting company to watch for the next 5-10 years. But I doubt that the company can produce 500,000 units per year without adding a factory in at least Asia and also Mexico. This is a high-cost industry, automaking, and as such, the stock being traded like a tech-stock is going to be a problem long term and eventually the stock and the financials will come into lock-step like (F), (GM) and others.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
There is no reason why Freemont can't produce 500k units per year.
Tesla does not have the massive legacy cost of Ford or GM. The Michigan companies really are healthcare maintenance organizations that sell cars in order to pay for the healthcare of their members. Tesla does not have the built in cost of unnecessary dealers, outdated factories and locked in very unfavorable terms with their unions. As the world moves to EVs GM and Ford will have the ICE trained engineers and infrastructure that can't be easily dumped and replaced. I see Tesla trading at far higher multiples into the foreseeable future.
JB Staubel, Chief Technical Officer at Tesla, in his presentation at Stanford one month ago predicted 700k Gen III units in 2019. No not the biggest automaker in the world. But closing in on BMW in units produced by 2030.
Tesla does not have the massive legacy cost of Ford or GM. The Michigan companies really are healthcare maintenance organizations that sell cars in order to pay for the healthcare of their members. Tesla does not have the built in cost of unnecessary dealers, outdated factories and locked in very unfavorable terms with their unions. As the world moves to EVs GM and Ford will have the ICE trained engineers and infrastructure that can't be easily dumped and replaced. I see Tesla trading at far higher multiples into the foreseeable future.
JB Staubel, Chief Technical Officer at Tesla, in his presentation at Stanford one month ago predicted 700k Gen III units in 2019. No not the biggest automaker in the world. But closing in on BMW in units produced by 2030.
carrerascott
FUEL FTR
Although I agree there is room for multiple players and it is in the best interest of tesla for electric vehicle adoption in general there is no question.
Disagree "lockstep with GM" et al... Tesla also has supercharger network which will lead to significant income from royalties as well as a proprietary technology that others will need to license
MSMX2014
$ Contributing Member $
Yeah, I just wanted to hold you guys up for being objective and honest. I fully get it and do take it all with a grain of salt. It takes some guts as I've learned to share objective bearish opinion here, which is unfortunate. These guys that immediately criticize obvious bulls that offer objective bearish analysis or opinion are frustrating. This thread is short term, not long term price movements. I'm such a TSLA bull that I can get caught up in the optimism and unfortunately purchased at 137, when I should have waited as I did in the 150's. If I knew what I knew now I would not purchase at current levels. I think the price needs to come down considerably and build a base and then reverse.
I come to this site looking for solid insight and hopefully I can share some at some point. I have a deposit on an MX and have an MS on order. I bought at 36 and sold at 185, then shorted at earnings at 175 and covered way too premature at 151 because I believe so strongly in the company and because I wasn't counting on a 3rd fire going viral immediately after the close. This 3rd fire did wake me up to the volatile nature of TSLA and the very real potential downside for going long again. Any negative catalyst or catalysts effect TSLA at an alarming level. I only shorted because I felt WS expectations were ridiculously high and nothing less than perfection would do. The rapid increase in price reminded me of 1999. When I invested at 36 I was hoping for maybe 60 in 6-months. Never would have thought 185. It had to come down. Plus, Elon's interview in Germany about the the high valuation was a tip off to me to go defensive. I'm one of the good guys that was just trying to figure out if Friday was a sign of a reversal or not. Just looking for some opinions to hopefully help me from making another mistake. I'm a short term trader until there has been a definitive reversal. I wish I could just go long again like I did at 36, but I just don't think it is a reality yet. I tend to think the NFLX scenario is possible as much as I hate it, but I figure the sooner we get to the bottom, then sooner I can go long again and get off this roller coaster.
xhawk:
"Tesla also has supercharger network which will lead to significant income from royalties"
Royalties from whom? I assume that you assume that someone like GM or other J1772 users will be signing up for supercharging? Why is that?
Onboard AC inverted charging units on all EVs except Tesla, are slow. From 3.3KW to 6.6KW and a few others. They have a general style of offering charge-at-home solutions that require minimal upgrade of home wiring systems and the ability to add 40-100 miles per night of charge at 3.3KW to 6.6KW. The Leaf and other strict EVs will offer CHaDEMO and other high-throughput DC fast charging for longer trips but nobody is buying an EV to go on long trips - or very few are. Down the road (10-30 years) this may be more of the case when larger SUVs and Vans hold 500 Wh/kg or denser batteries and can take the family to travel hockey games 300 miles away using 140 kWh onboard subsystems. Until then, cars like the Chevy Volt and Tesla Model S are the only real "road trip" cars - well, include the Ford Energi twins and a few other serial hybrids which operate like the Volt.
As for sustainability, it is always the debate of which is better during this time of transition. Is it Volt owners using a little bit of gas and driving over 200mpg or is it a holistic approach of EV and only EV? This is the "religious" debate among EV enthusiasts.
Anyway - I doubt we see any royalties to Tesla from anyone else. Given that the price for access of an actual Tesla MS60 driver is well above the cost of electricity supplied - $2000 - 2500 - I doubt any deal Tesla offers others will be at a low enough price. If any deal is offered, it should be on a per-kWh cost of perhaps .25/kWh for emergency trips or high convenience. But with many secondary companies out there building DC fast charging systems already (800+ in Europe are slated, as an example). This is why Tesla is selling the alternative - CHaDEMO cables for the MS at $1000.
"Tesla also has supercharger network which will lead to significant income from royalties"
Royalties from whom? I assume that you assume that someone like GM or other J1772 users will be signing up for supercharging? Why is that?
Onboard AC inverted charging units on all EVs except Tesla, are slow. From 3.3KW to 6.6KW and a few others. They have a general style of offering charge-at-home solutions that require minimal upgrade of home wiring systems and the ability to add 40-100 miles per night of charge at 3.3KW to 6.6KW. The Leaf and other strict EVs will offer CHaDEMO and other high-throughput DC fast charging for longer trips but nobody is buying an EV to go on long trips - or very few are. Down the road (10-30 years) this may be more of the case when larger SUVs and Vans hold 500 Wh/kg or denser batteries and can take the family to travel hockey games 300 miles away using 140 kWh onboard subsystems. Until then, cars like the Chevy Volt and Tesla Model S are the only real "road trip" cars - well, include the Ford Energi twins and a few other serial hybrids which operate like the Volt.
As for sustainability, it is always the debate of which is better during this time of transition. Is it Volt owners using a little bit of gas and driving over 200mpg or is it a holistic approach of EV and only EV? This is the "religious" debate among EV enthusiasts.
Anyway - I doubt we see any royalties to Tesla from anyone else. Given that the price for access of an actual Tesla MS60 driver is well above the cost of electricity supplied - $2000 - 2500 - I doubt any deal Tesla offers others will be at a low enough price. If any deal is offered, it should be on a per-kWh cost of perhaps .25/kWh for emergency trips or high convenience. But with many secondary companies out there building DC fast charging systems already (800+ in Europe are slated, as an example). This is why Tesla is selling the alternative - CHaDEMO cables for the MS at $1000.
if we can all agree Tesla has been an incredible success from just a couple years ago to now then why not think the trajectory of success will continue? In 2-3 more years time there may be Tesla successes that even now are hard to dream of.
Here are some dream catalysts:
-giga Factory financing by some major partner(s) like Samsung, LG, Google, Apple? Talk of a 2nd or 3rd Giga Factory even
-model x best car ever, better than S and huge hit
-model E prototype released and reservations over 100k before production begins (I think this will be a lock and could be 500k)
-military deal
-police cars deal
-pickup truck design released
-plans for first electric plane prototype announced
-US laws change to allow selling direct to consumer by Tesla without any more hassle from dealers
-tesla develops new battery that can go 500+ miles between charges
-batteries sold to homeowners as backup instead of generators, goes well with solar if someone wants to be off the grip especially
there are so many more successes that will or may come for Tesla that I can't even imagine but am excited to know are out there.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
We can just move on and keep in mind that there are paid posters and ppl with multiple accounts on this forum. That's what I didn't like. I actually really respect shorts like Realist.
Moving on, the algorithm of the bot that's pointed to Tesla stock is new. Like Curt pointed out. It begins about an hour after market starts as its signature, indicating it is only one bot. I haven't been following the stock market closely, it might be a new trend amongst bot programmers to use thinner volume to manipulate easier. Which means that the bot is not a scalping bot that earns based on. volume, but written to trigger stop losses.
If it is the general trend observed in other stocks, do correct me.
Moving on, the algorithm of the bot that's pointed to Tesla stock is new. Like Curt pointed out. It begins about an hour after market starts as its signature, indicating it is only one bot. I haven't been following the stock market closely, it might be a new trend amongst bot programmers to use thinner volume to manipulate easier. Which means that the bot is not a scalping bot that earns based on. volume, but written to trigger stop losses.
If it is the general trend observed in other stocks, do correct me.
sub
Active Member
Last time I want to comment on this, but I feel the "negative" comments are being taken incorrectly. I have no problem with hearing both sides of the argument, bear and bull. I think it's dangerous to only hear the bull case. The issue I have is when someone has nothing but negative to say, like Peterson. When one of his argument fails or gets stale, he moves on to the next. I saw him comment on one of the articles out this morning on how tesla releases information. You can say that TSLA is a $20 stock but still see the value in the company long term and be pro EV, it's not about silencing those that don't think the stock is worth $250 now. If you can see nothing of value in the company or the stock, why are you here? Place your bear bet and get lost, stop spewing known false information in every post.
amen
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did you sleep with your tinfoil hat on last night?
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that's what they said about aapl at $700 before it went to $400. And apple is actually making money... so much that they are having problems returning it to shareholders.
MSMX2014
$ Contributing Member $
Perfect, thanks for this update!Sooooo anyways.... short-term price movement.....
Looks like we ventured out of the channel only to get pulled back in...for now. Today and tomorrow will be very telling of the strength of this channel.
I do not own a Tesla Car. I do, however, own 2500 shares of TSLA purchased at an overall average price of 132. I'm long on the stock at this point. If all the negative static being put out by the media happens to drive the stock any closer to the 200 MA, I'll probably buy another 1000 shares. I started buying the stock when it was in the 50's after randomly discovering the Tesla dealership in downtown Seattle and convincing the salesman to let me take a Model S for a test drive. The emotional experience of my first Tesla drive almost compelled me to order an S on the spot; however, logic prevailed as I own 2 ICE cars long since paid for with low miles. Fortunately, a friend of mine owns a Model S 85, and he's kind enough to let me drive it whenever I'm in Dallas on business. I've driven many high performance automobiles over the years, but never a car the size of a Cadillac DHS with the performance of a 2014 Corvette. Every time I press the accelerator (rheostat) in his car my face lights up with a huge Tesla smile.
I decided to buy bits of the Tesla company for many of the same reasons I purchased Apple stock long ago and started using their products. While I'm long currently; I have made some short term trades on the stock along the way and overall made far more than I've lost which is why I'm comfortable with my position at the current stock price. I've been in the market for 15 years, and for the most part have always been a long term investor. I've never really watched a stock closely as I was never really that type of investor. In the past there were times when I'd go months without even checking my accounts. I'm excited by the potential of Tesla as a technology company and I am thoroughly convinced they may possibly shift if not shatter some long held transportation paradigms. As a huge Tesla fan, I've watched TSLA very closely, and watching this stock in particular has really opened my eyes to the emotions of fear and greed played out in the candlestick charts as the bears and the bulls battle it out. I find it fascinating how a headline can drive the stock in a few seconds several percentage points from where it was. I apologize for the long intro to what is a very short question, but I feel somewhat guilty for posting in a forum devoted to people who actually own Tesla automobiles. I would like to start incorporating some technical analysis into my buy sell decisions. Many people posting on this thread seem well versed on the subject, and I was wondering if anyone could recommend a book on the subject of Technical Analysis as it applies to the market.
Thanks for your consideration.
PS Global warming arguments aside, I'm convinced we have a moral obligation to produce and use products that are not harmful to the environment if we have the means to produce them. While I do not currently own a Tesla, I will likely purchase a Model X for my wife as she has a bizarre SUV fascination, and I will purchase a Gen III for myself as an airport commuter car.
I decided to buy bits of the Tesla company for many of the same reasons I purchased Apple stock long ago and started using their products. While I'm long currently; I have made some short term trades on the stock along the way and overall made far more than I've lost which is why I'm comfortable with my position at the current stock price. I've been in the market for 15 years, and for the most part have always been a long term investor. I've never really watched a stock closely as I was never really that type of investor. In the past there were times when I'd go months without even checking my accounts. I'm excited by the potential of Tesla as a technology company and I am thoroughly convinced they may possibly shift if not shatter some long held transportation paradigms. As a huge Tesla fan, I've watched TSLA very closely, and watching this stock in particular has really opened my eyes to the emotions of fear and greed played out in the candlestick charts as the bears and the bulls battle it out. I find it fascinating how a headline can drive the stock in a few seconds several percentage points from where it was. I apologize for the long intro to what is a very short question, but I feel somewhat guilty for posting in a forum devoted to people who actually own Tesla automobiles. I would like to start incorporating some technical analysis into my buy sell decisions. Many people posting on this thread seem well versed on the subject, and I was wondering if anyone could recommend a book on the subject of Technical Analysis as it applies to the market.
Thanks for your consideration.
PS Global warming arguments aside, I'm convinced we have a moral obligation to produce and use products that are not harmful to the environment if we have the means to produce them. While I do not currently own a Tesla, I will likely purchase a Model X for my wife as she has a bizarre SUV fascination, and I will purchase a Gen III for myself as an airport commuter car.
Welcome to the discussion group, AKPilot. You might want to consider the primer I wrote on technical analysis that is published by McGraw-Hill: http://www.invest-store.com/curtrenz/
@AKPilot
Curt carries a ton of excellent creds and well worth listening to his advice and checking out his linked publication-
In the meantime, you're in good company over here on the West Coast- welcome to the forum
Steve Jobs died and I think that has a lot to do with the lackluster AAPL performance since then. He made that company outperform, and made things happen. Elon Musk is like that with Tesla Motors as well...if he was to leave I am afraid much of the above dream catalysts would never come through.
also, Tesla is only reaching a tiny tiny portion of the addressable market right now for their products...while AAPL has a good chunk of their addressable market already globally when they were at 700 so their growth would obviously slow down.
im pretty sure AAPL would be buying Tesla if Jobs was still there, that was one thing he noted in his memoirs that he wish he could have done, create an electric car. They wouldn't have created it but they would have bought TSLA by now and started work on multiple Giga factories if Jobs was still there.
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