Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[uselesslogin]

*waves hand* right here. I'm going to make it last as long as possible because I don't want to have to deal with the dealership model anymore and want an EV.

LOL,

From this article:
How American youth fell out of love with car culture

"New car purchases by those aged 18-34 dropped by 30% in the US between 2007 and 2012"

I'm going to go ahead and assume they are all saving up for Teslas.

I just barely fit into this demographic and will be holding on to my '05 until I can get a Tesla.

 

[JRP3]

1000 parts per week was not mentioned in the Foxconn report. It said specifically 1000 vehicles per week.

according to Taiwan-based supply chain makers, adding that Tesla currently turns out about 1,000 electric vehicles a week.

Note the bolded word. 1000/week now would be a rather large jump from 700/week just a few weeks ago.

 

[kenliles]

LOL,

From this article:
How American youth fell out of love with car culture

"New car purchases by those aged 18-34 dropped by 30% in the US between 2007 and 2012"

I'm going to go ahead and assume they are all saving up for Teslas.

I just barely fit into this demographic and will be holding on to my '05 until I can get a Tesla.

hilarious-
by the way I just 'barely' DON'T fit that demographic (but only if I live to 300)

 

[MikeC]

LOL,

From this article:
How American youth fell out of love with car culture

"New car purchases by those aged 18-34 dropped by 30% in the US between 2007 and 2012"

I'm going to go ahead and assume they are all saving up for Teslas.

I just barely fit into this demographic and will be holding on to my '05 until I can get a Tesla.

I totally was, got mine February 2013.

- - - Updated - - -

Note the bolded word. 1000/week now would be a rather large jump from 700/week just a few weeks ago.

I'm reading the comments section from this article: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2171113-tesla-has-more-loyal-followers-than-joe-carroll-shorting-it-is-not-easy

@JRP3, good work, but I have to say if these are the short arguments, I'm very reassured. Elon is a con man pumping up the stock price, gigafarce, 5k China peak demand, 3-wheeled cars (ha!), it's almost comical. As frustrated as we've been with the short term movements, the bears seem equally puzzled that it hasn't gone to 180 yet despite the "momo" sell-off.

 

[JRP3]

Yes, as depressing as the movement from $265 to now has been the continued weakness of the bear arguments is reassuring.

 

[Calvin.K]

LOL,

From this article:
How American youth fell out of love with car culture

"New car purchases by those aged 18-34 dropped by 30% in the US between 2007 and 2012"

I'm going to go ahead and assume they are all saving up for Teslas.

I just barely fit into this demographic and will be holding on to my '05 until I can get a Tesla.

19 and have been saving since 17 when I started investing in TSLA. Give me three more years and I will be able to afford a gen3 car:wink:

 

[Muskol]

19 and have been saving since 17 when I started investing in TSLA. Give me three more years and I will be able to afford a gen3 car:wink:

Good stuff Calvin!

 

[CyberDutchie]

Morgan Stanley put out an alert last night, telling it's clients why N. America deliveries in Q1 will be down:

Investors are increasingly concerned about how the market will react to a possible YoY decline in N. American deliveries of the Model S in 2014. We believe a decline in NA deliveries is not only possible, but is likely... and reasonable. In fact, we’d argue that anyone with a FY14 global delivery forecast of less than 35k units has a global geographic split that clearly implies a YoY decline of Model S volume in N. America, if not a severe deceleration to near 0% growth. Will the headlines matter for how the stock trades? Very possibly. Are we fundamentally concerned? No.

What do you all make of this note? I'm not interested in discussing the explanation for the decline, but the reason for MS to put out such a note. Is it that they want to cover themselves (remember, MS current 1Y price target for TSLA is $320) and expect the stock to go down?

I'm still sitting on the sideline, not sure if I want to buy pre-earnings or after. I don't want to pay over $200+ if we're going to test the $190 levels again. But I also don't want to buy after a run-up into the $220's or $230's which could be possible. I've been encouraged with the price stability of the past few days, my hope is we will stay above 200 for good.

Here's MS' bottom line:

Bottom line: 1Q results are a red herring. Resolving the battery partnership stand-still is key, in our view. If defined by how often a competitor’s name is mentioned in the boardrooms and halls of the auto company C-suite, then we believe Tesla is the most important auto company in the world. This has at least as much to do with Tesla’s vehicle engineering and connected car capability as it does with its electric powertrain. While the stock’s valuation is clearly discounting selling far more cars than its 35k annual run-rate, we believe it is not discounting Tesla’s potential as a truly disruptive force in a $2 trillion industry.

What to do, I guess that's always the million dollar question...

 

[Zaxxon]

That alert sounds entirely reasonable to me.

 

[eepic]

Morgan Stanley put out an alert last night, telling it's clients why N. America deliveries in Q1 will be down:



What do you all make of this note? I'm not interested in discussing the explanation for the decline, but the reason for MS to put out such a note. Is it that they want to cover themselves (remember, MS current 1Y price target for TSLA is $320) and expect the stock to go down?

I'm still sitting on the sideline, not sure if I want to buy pre-earnings or after. I don't want to pay over $200+ if we're going to test the $190 levels again. But I also don't want to buy after a run-up into the $220's or $230's which could be possible. I've been encouraged with the price stability of the past few days, my hope is we will stay above 200 for good.

Here's MS' bottom line:



What to do, I guess that's always the million dollar question...

There's some more from the Morgan Stanley report, from a diff source (guessing above just from Benzinga), arguably a much more bullish section.

"1Q results are a red herring. Resolving the battery partnership stand-still is key, in our view. If defined by how often a competitor's name is mentioned in the boardrooms and halls of the auto company C-suite, then we believe Tesla is the most important auto company in the world. This has at least as much to do with Tesla's vehicle engineering and connected car capability as it does with its electric powertrain. While the stock's valuation is clearly discounting selling far more cars than its 35k annual run-rate, we believe it is not discounting Tesla's potential as a truly disruptive force in a $2 trillion industry."

Update: To clarify, this above section from MS, not me

 

[mrdoubleb]

I am actually glad this came out. Even though Tesla warned everyone Q1 will be down due to a significant amount of product being shipped to Europe and Asia, I think we already know ceratin headlines form certain authors the day after the ER.

People need to understand Tesla is still production constrained. If they put 2k cars on a big boat, that means that much less can be sold in the US. Period. People pay attention to MS, so calm, explanatory alerts like this actually help us.

On the bright side, if the math we've been doing on these forums regarding European sales figures checks out, they should beat their own guidance, so we can still get a nice little bump out of the ER. Still, probably more than anything, 2014 outlook, Model X and Gigafactory guidance will have the biggest affect on the stock price come 9:30 am, 05.08.

 

[hockeythug]

LOL,

From this article:
How American youth fell out of love with car culture

"New car purchases by those aged 18-34 dropped by 30% in the US between 2007 and 2012"

I'm going to go ahead and assume they are all saving up for Teslas.

I just barely fit into this demographic and will be holding on to my '05 until I can get a Tesla.

Thats me. Just waiting for Tesla to take my deposit for Gen3.

 

[AlMc]

I am actually glad this came out. Even though Tesla warned everyone Q1 will be down due to a significant amount of product being shipped to Europe and Asia, I think we already know ceratin headlines form certain authors the day after the ER.

People need to understand Tesla is still production constrained. If they put 2k cars on a big boat, that means that much less can be sold in the US. Period. People pay attention to MS, so calm, explanatory alerts like this actually help us.

On the bright side, if the math we've been doing on these forums regarding European sales figures checks out, they should beat their own guidance, so we can still get a nice little bump out of the ER. Still, probably more than anything, 2014 outlook, Model X and Gigafactory guidance will have the biggest affect on the stock price come 9:30 am, 05.08.

Totally agree. Get the news out now, pre ER so the market has time to study/understand. They put it perfectly. 'We don't care if NA deliveries down'. We still give the price target of $320!

 

[hockeythug]

Good to see the stock overcame this major story

http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/05/tesla-motors-inc-engineer-accused-of-drunk-driving/

 

[mrdoubleb]

Good to see the stock overcame this major story

http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/05/tesla-motors-inc-engineer-accused-of-drunk-driving/

Maybe my sarcasm detector is not working today, but i do not see why this is a major story... or a story at all. The only connection to Tesla is that the guy works there. So next time one of GE's 100k employees gets pulled over ofr a DUI, it's gonna be CNN breaking news? How can this even be published as "news", let alone naming the person involved?

 

[carrerascott]

Yeah your sarcasm detector is on the fritz.

Maybe my sarcasm detector is not working today, but i do not see why this is a major story... or a story at all. The only connection to Tesla is that the guy works there. So next time one of GE's 100k employees gets pulled over ofr a DUI, it's gonna be CNN breaking news? How can this even be published as "news", let alone naming the person involved?

 

[MartinAustin]

Maybe my sarcasm detector is not working today, but i do not see why this is a major story... or a story at all. The only connection to Tesla is that the guy works there. So next time one of GE's 100k employees gets pulled over ofr a DUI, it's gonna be CNN breaking news? How can this even be published as "news", let alone naming the person involved?

It's news because ValueWalk wants you to click on their site. They would publish "Tesla Employee Leaves Shoelaces Untied And Trips In Cafeteria, Hurts Nose" if they thought it would generate clicks.

Further, it ends up on our radar because we allow news aggregators like Google to gather up headlines for us to read. Unfortunately Google does not know garbage from actual news, and so we end up with all of it, and there is a cash-for-clicks industry.

 

[justthateasy]

TSLA has stayed relatively flat the last few days. It looks like we won't be getting a pre-earnings run but I am glad to see TSLA stay above 200 the last few days. Hopefully that carries over into earnings on Wednesday.

 

[DaveT]

Here's a few charts of interest. First, on the 4 hour chart you can see the downtrend by looking at the top line. Today we hit resistance at the downtrend line and pull back some. If we can close above the downtrend line, this is very bullish. Also, on the 4 hour chart you'll notice a wedge is forming.

On the daily chart, I've added Bollinger bands and Keltner channels. Some traders look for the Bollinger bands to fit inside the Keltner channel to show a potential squeeze play. Notice this is starting to happen with the top Bollinger band now inside the Keltner channel. The bottom Bollinger band is close.
"A squeeze play setup occurs when the Bollinger Bands are inside the Keltner channels. When this happens, the stock has been trading in a narrow range for a while. A major move could happen when the stock breaks out of this trading range." (ChartMill.Com | Find screens matching your trading style.)

On the other side, traders are generally seeing the Nasdaq still in a downtrend.

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

Thanks DaveT! Excellent use of ToS charting software!

I would love to see that wedge continue until earnings on May 7th. I know everyone hear is very focused on TSLA price movements, but some high-beta high flying stocks have taken close to 50% haircuts since March. For example, WDAY, NOW, YELP, FEYE, GOGO, SPLK. As a 'high flier' Tesla has held up incredibly well, only one doing better is Zillow (Z). This is something that ChessNWine has been highlighting in his daily market recap videos (Stock #Market Recap 05/01/14 {Video} | Technical Analysis with chessNwine).

Tesla longs should be proud, and Tesla shorts should pat themselves on the back for providing support by closing out some of their short position.