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Nikkei: Musk says Tesla to be partially self-driving in 3 years.
My tempered hope for highway on-ramp to off-ramp by next year takes another bump downwards
Edit, more on it:
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Tesla CEO Elon Musk provided the
prediction in an interview, newspaper reports.
• Full auto-pilot 5-6 yrs
• System, software to be programed by Tesla
• Senors, components from many cos.
• Some of new tech to go into car expected in 3-yrs, sees price at ~$35,000
My tempered hope for highway on-ramp to off-ramp by next year takes another bump downwards
Edit, more on it:
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Tesla CEO Elon Musk provided the
prediction in an interview, newspaper reports.
• Full auto-pilot 5-6 yrs
• System, software to be programed by Tesla
• Senors, components from many cos.
• Some of new tech to go into car expected in 3-yrs, sees price at ~$35,000
chickensevil
Active Member
Nikkei: Musk says Tesla to be partially self-driving in 3 years.
My tempered hope for highway on-ramp to off-ramp by next year takes another bump downwards
Edit, more on it:
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Tesla CEO Elon Musk provided the
prediction in an interview, newspaper reports.
• Full auto-pilot 5-6 yrs
• System, software to be programed by Tesla
• Senors, components from many cos.
• Some of new tech to go into car expected in 3-yrs, sees price at ~$35,000
Yikes! 35k! I guess I will be waiting around for Gen2 then like I did with the car.... hopefully there will be a cheaper path quite fast.
hockeythug
Active Member
Nikkei: Musk says Tesla to be partially self-driving in 3 years.
My tempered hope for highway on-ramp to off-ramp by next year takes another bump downwards
Edit, more on it:
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Tesla CEO Elon Musk provided the
prediction in an interview, newspaper reports.
• Full auto-pilot 5-6 yrs
• System, software to be programed by Tesla
• Senors, components from many cos.
• Some of new tech to go into car expected in 3-yrs, sees price at ~$35,000
That fits Mobileye's future product roadmap as well.
Nikkei: Musk says Tesla to be partially self-driving in 3 years.
My tempered hope for highway on-ramp to off-ramp by next year takes another bump downwards
Edit, more on it:
Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Tesla CEO Elon Musk provided the
prediction in an interview, newspaper reports.
...
Which year was that?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Which year was what?
Elon proclaimed autopilot within 3 years in a tweet recruiting autonomy engineers last year (2013). He also said recently this summer (2014) that they would have highway on-ramp to off-ramp tech within one year.
Waiting to hear the full context of these quotes, but the way the headlines read it looks like the projections are being pushed back. But hey, we'll probably have 6.0!
Building a huge battery factory is a big risk, especially one that makes more batteries than the rest of the world combined. If Tesla was wrong about demand or failed to build the Model 3 on time or at scale, Panasonic would be sitting on a ton of inventory with no buyers. Tesla probably did say what you put above to Panasonic, and Panasonic probably replied that they'd rather take it slow and that a new car company isn't worth risking their business over. Elon probably found "slow" to be unacceptable, thus, the GigaFactory.
MartinAustin
Active Member
Totally agree with you.
But... this already happened to Panasonic. 18650 demand was plummeting, their fortunes were in the toilet and they were closing down factories left right and center. Tesla's demand came along just at the right time - or even, a little later than the right time since they had to spin up previously mothballed battery factories. If you look at their financial releases, automotive batteries are forming a critical part of Panasonic's recent turnaround.
You have to wonder how skeptical Panasonic really are about Tesla's fortunes. It [their continued success] looks clear as day to me and folks on this forum, of course.
I suppose Panasonic's opinions have been taken out of the equation - since now, while being a part of the Gigafactory, they are not controlling whether or not it exists.
chickensevil
Active Member
I know this is a bit late, for reflecting the price movements, but since it is a value to the short term movements... Here is the video of the Japan market release: Elon Musk on Tesla Model S in Japan, Toyota Partnership: Video - Bloomberg
For those who can't watch the video, or just want the highlights here you go... This was a REALLY GREAT INTERVIEW. So much juicy details!!!
They are rolling full steam ahead with supercharging in Japan and that was part of the delay. They wanted at least some superchargers online in Japan before going live, which he said they have 2 of them online now.
Multiple partners in the factory: Panasonic and their partners (Hitachi and SMM - Sumitomo Metal Mining) So you have first confirmation of at least two other partners
Enough sun in Japan to power Japan completely by solar and many times over.
Tesla will be providing half of the investment, Panasonic is 30-40%, and the remainder will come from the other industrial partners and the State of Nevada. Panasonic, Tesla, and Nevada are all on board, so the only remaining piece is to get the other industrial partners to sign on (So sounds like Hitachi and SMM are in the works, but not yet finalized on what they will contribute?)
Not putting a lot of thought on anything outside of the main car and battery factory. However long term (3-5 years) they will look to establish other factories where they are needed. Outside of his statement right there, no additional planning has been done on future factories (so we can stop that speculation I guess, lol)
Daimler, Panasonic, and Toyota investments were critical to the survival of Tesla
"Fuel Cells are not the right solution, but I think there is some value with experimenting with other technologies." He goes on to say more about why it isn't great that is pretty much all the reasons we have heard already.
Goals of SpaceX is very long term, which is outside of the timeframe of an analyst on Wall Street, SpaceX is not going public any time soon. Tesla was probably taken public too early as well, but they needed a lot of money so they went public (Thanks Elon!)
The earth is already mostly solar powered and the amount we need to run civilization is only a fraction of that energy. But he is very pro Hydro, Geothermal, wind, anything that is renewable. He is also not opposed to Nuclear it just needs to be well thought out. (He then gave a very nice answer about Japan and their Nuclear situation)
What is the timeframe to getting vehicles equipped with autopilot? (wanted to frame the question for the answer he gave) In the past he said 10 years before full autonomous and will update to 5-6 years. Regulatory approval is part of this timeframe.
In about a week he is giving a presentation on upcoming features of the model S firmware. (ZOMG!! I can't wait for this!)
There will probably be something significant of a much higher volume deal with Toyota in a few years (just a guess).
Output of the factory will be 2/3rds for Tesla cars and 1/3 for stationary storage and other manufacturers.
Patent release was just to accelerate EV adoption... it might be a bad idea in the future, and he hopes it won't be a dumb decision. all patents do is slow down competitors. True strength of Tesla will be decided by its innovation, and if they are great then they won't need to worry about selling their cars.
They do have the option of slowing down investments and R&D and would be profitable if they did that, they have chosen the path of high growth over the path of profitability. There is no special class of common stock... He only has ~25% of the shares, if investors thinks he is doing a bad job there is a simple solution and that is they could fire him. (Such a great response about being profitable vs high growth )
For those who can't watch the video, or just want the highlights here you go... This was a REALLY GREAT INTERVIEW. So much juicy details!!!
They are rolling full steam ahead with supercharging in Japan and that was part of the delay. They wanted at least some superchargers online in Japan before going live, which he said they have 2 of them online now.
Multiple partners in the factory: Panasonic and their partners (Hitachi and SMM - Sumitomo Metal Mining) So you have first confirmation of at least two other partners
Enough sun in Japan to power Japan completely by solar and many times over.
Tesla will be providing half of the investment, Panasonic is 30-40%, and the remainder will come from the other industrial partners and the State of Nevada. Panasonic, Tesla, and Nevada are all on board, so the only remaining piece is to get the other industrial partners to sign on (So sounds like Hitachi and SMM are in the works, but not yet finalized on what they will contribute?)
Not putting a lot of thought on anything outside of the main car and battery factory. However long term (3-5 years) they will look to establish other factories where they are needed. Outside of his statement right there, no additional planning has been done on future factories (so we can stop that speculation I guess, lol)
Daimler, Panasonic, and Toyota investments were critical to the survival of Tesla
"Fuel Cells are not the right solution, but I think there is some value with experimenting with other technologies." He goes on to say more about why it isn't great that is pretty much all the reasons we have heard already.
Goals of SpaceX is very long term, which is outside of the timeframe of an analyst on Wall Street, SpaceX is not going public any time soon. Tesla was probably taken public too early as well, but they needed a lot of money so they went public (Thanks Elon!)
The earth is already mostly solar powered and the amount we need to run civilization is only a fraction of that energy. But he is very pro Hydro, Geothermal, wind, anything that is renewable. He is also not opposed to Nuclear it just needs to be well thought out. (He then gave a very nice answer about Japan and their Nuclear situation)
What is the timeframe to getting vehicles equipped with autopilot? (wanted to frame the question for the answer he gave) In the past he said 10 years before full autonomous and will update to 5-6 years. Regulatory approval is part of this timeframe.
In about a week he is giving a presentation on upcoming features of the model S firmware. (ZOMG!! I can't wait for this!)
There will probably be something significant of a much higher volume deal with Toyota in a few years (just a guess).
Output of the factory will be 2/3rds for Tesla cars and 1/3 for stationary storage and other manufacturers.
Patent release was just to accelerate EV adoption... it might be a bad idea in the future, and he hopes it won't be a dumb decision. all patents do is slow down competitors. True strength of Tesla will be decided by its innovation, and if they are great then they won't need to worry about selling their cars.
They do have the option of slowing down investments and R&D and would be profitable if they did that, they have chosen the path of high growth over the path of profitability. There is no special class of common stock... He only has ~25% of the shares, if investors thinks he is doing a bad job there is a simple solution and that is they could fire him. (Such a great response about being profitable vs high growth
)
hockeythug
Active Member
I don't think he would do a presentation for just the features in the "leaked 6.0 beta". Sounds like potentially some big stuff in there after all.
Much appreciated for writing all that up Chicken.
Much appreciated for writing all that up Chicken.
At $210/kWh I don't think they could get anywhere near 500k/year. That's $12.6k for a 60kWh battery, add $15k for the power electronics (and that's assuming the base performance is nothing special and they have about 150kW), and you're already at $27.6k. They need more room than that if they're going to bring it in under $40k, make it square up against the 3 Series and make it profitable. BEV subsidies will be disappearing, and $210/kWh is way too high for the static storage market. I cannot see Tesla trying to keep a large excess margin on the table when their whole business model is built on driving down the cost of batteries.
If they have $150, they could price at $165/kWh and knock $2,700 off the price of a car with 60kwh. Then they have battery plus power electronics under $25k, so might be able to keep the base price under $40k with a less daunting battery cost, and much more appeal to buy up, or have people buying extra capacity, which helps reduce the cost of the Supercharger network. At $165/kWh they should also a more sellable static storage product.
Not sure if this is the right place to put this, but I have a feeling Apple's event tomorrow will contain information about wireless charging (standards?), which would be significant for Tesla Motors and any electric vehicles that are compatible with the technology.
Anyone here familiar with the kind of wireless charging Apple is rumored to announce?
Apple patents zero in on wireless charging, Mac Pro design - CNET
How would the adoption of this type of wireless charging system standard affect Tesla's Supercharger network? Would it?
Since Tesla is storing energy on site, would it be possible for the Superchargers to altered to be super fast wireless chargers?
Anyone here familiar with the kind of wireless charging Apple is rumored to announce?
Apple patents zero in on wireless charging, Mac Pro design - CNET
How would the adoption of this type of wireless charging system standard affect Tesla's Supercharger network? Would it?
Since Tesla is storing energy on site, would it be possible for the Superchargers to altered to be super fast wireless chargers?
itsnotaboutthemoney said:
Your logic is good. However, I believe your premise is incorrect.
The 200 mile range car will not be using a 60kWh battery pack in my opinion.
With a smaller car, you won't need as much power to push it 200 miles. Lower performance specs also mean you don't need as many batteries.
It may not be much smaller. Perhaps 55kWh, maybe 50kWh at most. That still alters the cost calculations though.
- - - Updated - - -
No affect what-so-ever as Tesla would not, IMO, be adopting that technology.
There are inefficiencies when moving to wireless charging. When you are using as much power as an EV uses, those inefficiencies add up fast.
chickensevil
Active Member
For what it's worth Roll's Royce had wireless charging on their prototype car but was limited to I believe 8kW which was slower than the 10kW is was able to use on the hard line. I don't know what the limits are for anything higher but wireless charging would not at present make sense for supercharging. Destination charging... Maybe. Until they can transmit on the order of multiple miles at a pretty decent speed, say 60MPH charge rate... I don't see it being something revolutionary for a car. Just my 2 cents
Wireless charging also adds weight to the car, and restricts where you can park it. I don't expect wireless charging to take off for EVs in the short or Medium term.
Also, pretty sure model iii will start with a 40kwh pack or thereabouts. Possibly less if they can get weight down and performance feels acceptable to them.
Also, pretty sure model iii will start with a 40kwh pack or thereabouts. Possibly less if they can get weight down and performance feels acceptable to them.
pz1975
Active Member
I know this is a bit late, for reflecting the price movements, but since it is a value to the short term movements... Here is the video of the Japan market release: Elon Musk on Tesla Model S in Japan, Toyota Partnership: Video - Bloomberg
For those who can't watch the video, or just want the highlights here you go... This was a REALLY GREAT INTERVIEW. So much juicy details!!!
They are rolling full steam ahead with supercharging in Japan and that was part of the delay. They wanted at least some superchargers online in Japan before going live, which he said they have 2 of them online now.
Multiple partners in the factory: Panasonic and their partners (Hitachi and SMM - Sumitomo Metal Mining) So you have first confirmation of at least two other partners
Enough sun in Japan to power Japan completely by solar and many times over.
Tesla will be providing half of the investment, Panasonic is 30-40%, and the remainder will come from the other industrial partners and the State of Nevada. Panasonic, Tesla, and Nevada are all on board, so the only remaining piece is to get the other industrial partners to sign on (So sounds like Hitachi and SMM are in the works, but not yet finalized on what they will contribute?)
Not putting a lot of thought on anything outside of the main car and battery factory. However long term (3-5 years) they will look to establish other factories where they are needed. Outside of his statement right there, no additional planning has been done on future factories (so we can stop that speculation I guess, lol)
Daimler, Panasonic, and Toyota investments were critical to the survival of Tesla
"Fuel Cells are not the right solution, but I think there is some value with experimenting with other technologies." He goes on to say more about why it isn't great that is pretty much all the reasons we have heard already.
Goals of SpaceX is very long term, which is outside of the timeframe of an analyst on Wall Street, SpaceX is not going public any time soon. Tesla was probably taken public too early as well, but they needed a lot of money so they went public (Thanks Elon!)
The earth is already mostly solar powered and the amount we need to run civilization is only a fraction of that energy. But he is very pro Hydro, Geothermal, wind, anything that is renewable. He is also not opposed to Nuclear it just needs to be well thought out. (He then gave a very nice answer about Japan and their Nuclear situation)
What is the timeframe to getting vehicles equipped with autopilot? (wanted to frame the question for the answer he gave) In the past he said 10 years before full autonomous and will update to 5-6 years. Regulatory approval is part of this timeframe.
In about a week he is giving a presentation on upcoming features of the model S firmware. (ZOMG!! I can't wait for this!)
There will probably be something significant of a much higher volume deal with Toyota in a few years (just a guess).
Output of the factory will be 2/3rds for Tesla cars and 1/3 for stationary storage and other manufacturers.
Patent release was just to accelerate EV adoption... it might be a bad idea in the future, and he hopes it won't be a dumb decision. all patents do is slow down competitors. True strength of Tesla will be decided by its innovation, and if they are great then they won't need to worry about selling their cars.
They do have the option of slowing down investments and R&D and would be profitable if they did that, they have chosen the path of high growth over the path of profitability. There is no special class of common stock... He only has ~25% of the shares, if investors thinks he is doing a bad job there is a simple solution and that is they could fire him. (Such a great response about being profitable vs high growth
Thanks for taking the time to write that synopsis.
The quote "Output of the factory will be 2/3rds for Tesla cars and 1/3 for stationary storage and other manufacturers." jumped out at me, specifically the stationary storage part. I think this is huge to have stationary storage as a real market potentially within 2-3 years!
chickensevil
Active Member
No problem, I found the video and at first was just going to point out the important stuff... but it's Elon... everything is important haha!
Yeah, they are giving themselves enough cells to pretty much do whatever they want to with it, and this is the first I had heard them given specific percentages of the factory to be designated for something. I know we all had done the overly simple math of 85kW * 500k = 42.5GW and since we know all batteries will not likely be 85kW per car (especially since the smaller model 3 will not likely need it to get the range they are shooting for) that we knew there was plenty of leftovers. but 1/3rd? That is around 16.67GW of power to go for... well, whatever they want it to. They could install the 10kW backup chargers at 1.67 Million homes per year on that capacity or a little more than 1/2 a million homes per year if they went for 30kW backup solution. Now grant it, they will be selling these to other car manufacturers, but just the scale of these options available are pretty crazy!
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I didn't know this about Panasonic. Tesla may have done for Panasonic what Apple did for Corning (massive increase in demand for "Gorilla Glass", which initially seemed to have limited application, at least until the iPhone era).
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