Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[DaveT]

Too long. Converted to shares about 3 months before expiration. Had to argue with broker at the time. They insisted I could get more by selling option and then buying stock but I believed ( can't remember why) that stock would jump on open so I wanted to convert instead of trying to get the 50 cents I was leaving on the table. Broker refused to do it so I had to tell them I would take them to arbitration if they didn't. They claimed right to protect me from my decision by not doing it. Three calls back from them later the last at three in the morning and finally they agreed. The stock went up about three on the open. Was on a road trip and miserable the next day, severely sleep deprived. Couldn't sleep at all given I had bought the right to convert at any time.

Impressive to hold that long. Was this in a tax-deferred account or taxable account?

 

[Chickenlittle]

Impressive to hold that long. Was this in a tax-deferred account or taxable account?

All Ira. Almost panicked when Obama said couple years ago that no one needs more than 3 million in ira

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All Ira. Almost panicked when Obama said couple years ago that no one needs more than 3 million in ira

Getting off topic. Have been able to do this by not assuming "worse case scenario ". Know it can disappear and we all need to be careful. May have left money on table by getting out of otm options now but that is ok. Last time I did stock was at 255 after it started to drop post last bond raise. I am not predicting anything. Not telling others what to do. Just know if you keep doubling down your at risk

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I am loving this exchange!

Congratulations Chickenlittle! Have the thought of changing your screen name crossed your mind?

I second your caution on risk tolerance. To me deeply understanding one's tolerance to risk is the first step to successful investing.

My TSLA brockerage account is currently 78x-bagger, and both my largest gain and largest loss on a transaction were in seven figures. Last thing one needs at the moments like that is exaltation/panic...

Congrats. I know there are more of us here.

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

I would just like to add that Spring 2013 Tesla was a once in a lifetime opportunity that many of us were fortunate to benefit from. Due to the law of large numbers, a 500% annual rise will never happen again for TSLA stock.

 

[ibcs]

I would just like to add that Spring 2013 Tesla was a once in a lifetime opportunity that many of us were fortunate to benefit from. Due to the law of large numbers, a 500% annual rise will never happen again for TSLA stock.

Agreed - The ride has been life changing for many of us early stock owners.

 

[FluxCap]

In other news - Firmware 6.0 was released today:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/35715-Firmware-6-0?p=754747&viewfull=1#post754747

Exciting! I thought long ago that this might be a stock catalyst, but I suspect not so much now.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

All Ira. Almost panicked when Obama said couple years ago that no one needs more than 3 million in ira

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Getting off topic. Have been able to do this by not assuming "worse case scenario ". Know it can disappear and we all need to be careful. May have left money on table by getting out of otm options now but that is ok. Last time I did stock was at 255 after it started to drop post last bond raise. I am not predicting anything. Not telling others what to do. Just know if you keep doubling down your at risk

here I am again and read all the conversations in the meantime!
first of all, yes, by no means I am giving any trading advices to anyone here at all. It is nothing but my personal opinion. Solely mine and what I would do in case I'd be a day trader which I am not - in case of TSLA at least. I am sorry if my writing caused that impression. Therefore I'm taking this opportunity here to apologize to everyone in this forum.

and secondly - WOW!! for the 160 fold of your monster gain! congrats! what shall I say, everything is possible as long as someone is fully committed to an investment and thus understands all the mechanics of the instrument(s) she/he is chosing. No one can predict the market not even in the short term. It is rather a matter of probability, thus 'how accurate was my bet?". Even the ConvArb and StatArb Traders might be often on the right side but their sophisticated hedging technics are not for free. The tremendous amount of investment for the IT infrastructure not even included. Ok, another world.
However, I guess we're all here because we understand the goal of this company, its potential and strength, but above all this, the vision which step-by-step realization is the main driver of all upcoming quarters and FYs going forward. Nevertheless, we all watch the news, read tons of articles, receive newsletters, watch the markets and so forth. Because information management is all that counts. At the end, its' everyone's decision. But the decision is always easier to make if we are well informed.


Disclaimer: long TSLA; waiting to become a millionaire.:wink:

 

[vgrinshpun]

Exciting! I thought long ago that this might be a stock catalyst, but I suspect not so much now.

It might. I do not think that this info hit the media yet.

 

[chickensevil]

It might. I do not think that this info hit the media yet.

It might become a media event with the supposed press conference or whatever Elon said he would do "probably" next week.

 

[AlMc]

It might become a media event with the supposed press conference or whatever Elon said he would do "probably" next week.

MY Guess: Elon will be announcing several things and is waiting for the legislative body of Nevada to pass 'the bill'. At that point he holds a press conference/blogs about a 'Go' on the GF; V6.0 release and either unveiling of either new things for the S or beta X. PURE SPECULATION/DREAM

 

[BlueTan85]

I agree. No way will his press conf be only about 5.15, er, "6.0."

 

[InTheShadows]

Did they set a date for his press conference yet?

 

[Johan]

Too long. Converted to shares about 3 months before expiration. Had to argue with broker at the time. They insisted I could get more by selling option and then buying stock but I believed ( can't remember why) that stock would jump on open so I wanted to convert instead of trying to get the 50 cents I was leaving on the table. Broker refused to do it so I had to tell them I would take them to arbitration if they didn't. They claimed right to protect me from my decision by not doing it. Three calls back from them later the last at three in the morning and finally they agreed. The stock went up about three on the open. Was on a road trip and miserable the next day, severely sleep deprived. Couldn't sleep at all given I had bought the right to convert at any time.

did learn from that that you can keep options too long. Loose time value when that deep. But these days will use options deep in the money to buy stock at what I call no premium and for the same money control more shares.

Very very cool that you converted those options to shares. The one trade you mention is for 300 contracts with a strike of 50? That's $1,5 million to convert. May I ask was this margin or gains made on the way? You did this 3 months prior to expiry of Jan 14 so Oct 13 the stock was around $159. That's a sweet sweet gain.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Very very cool that you converted those options to shares. The one trade you mention is for 300 contracts with a strike of 50? That's $1,5 million to convert. May I ask was this margin or gains made on the way? You did this 3 months prior to expiry of Jan 14 so Oct 13 the stock was around $159. That's a sweet sweet gain.

Did not have cash to do all at once would do some then sell stock to do more. Did over time.

 

[Johan]

Did not have cash to do all at once would do some then sell stock to do more. Did over time.

Cool. But in that case I agree with broker: just sell the calls and buy stock?

 

[mershaw2001]

Cool. But in that case I agree with broker: just sell the calls and buy stock?

You will incur a capital gain on the sale of the option if you do it that way. If you exercise the option, the cost basis of the stock will be 51 (the strike price of the option plus the premium paid for it) and you won't pay capital gains taxes until you sell the stock.

 

[InTheShadows]

You will incur a capital gain on the sale of the option if you do it that way. If you exercise the option, the cost basis of the stock will be 51 (the strike price of the option plus the premium paid for it) and you won't pay capital gains taxes until you sell the stock.

I believe he said it was in his IRA.

 

[chickensevil]

I believe he said it was in his IRA.

Maybe he just wants to hold on to it... Nothing wrong with expanding your stock holdings for a bit more stability

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think that we are overdue for upgrades from quite a few analysts. List below includes companies that did not update their Price Targets since Q4-2013/Q1-2014. Since we have two major pieces of new information that these older PT did not account for - 100K car/year run rate at the end of 2015 and mammoth size of State incentives for GF ($1.25B vs. projected $0.4-0.5B) - I think that we can see some updated PTs fairly soon

Company ____________Last PT Update____PT Old-->PT New
Baird..........................3/17/2014.............245-->275
Wedbush....................3/27/2014.............295-->275
Norhtland...................2/20/2014..............230-->253
Morgan Stanley...........2/25/2014..............153-->320
Jeffries.......................2/20/2014.............190-->220
Dougherty $ Co............2/20/2014.............200-->325

So, now, after Nevada approved the GF deal, who from the above list will speak first??

 

[30seconds]

Did not have cash to do all at once would do some then sell stock to do more. Did over time.

What was the advantage over selling the calls and just buying stock on the open market?

 

[FluxCap]

So, now, after Nevada approved the GF deal, who from the above list will speak first??

I bet Craig first then Adam then Andrea.