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one other comment, a friend asked me about adding shares yesterday. I told him, I don't know, but I'd estimate 50% chance we drop below $250, 30% chance we see $220s, 10% chance we see $180s, with none of that requiring anything effecting Tesla's fundamentals to occur (and my estimate that in 2020 the stock will be worth $550-$650). if model X not revealed until mid-Jan, I'd tweak those scenarios to 65%, 35%, 10%.
He's not selling 9% of his shares AFAI, this is normal options vesting.
Tesla Motors - Statement of Changes of Beneficial Ownership
Most shares of Tesla Motors and other companies just sit in investors' accounts and are not traded each day. What's important today is that almost all of Alibaba's float has been bought today, and that should be compared with all of the other companies' shares that are actually trading today. I suspect there has been a noticeable effect today and all of this week on certain momentum stocks, especially any like Tesla Motors that have received less than kind comments this week from analysts at big investment banks, which may have pushed a significant amount of the cash raising for Alibaba in the direction of those stocks.
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chickensevil
Active Member
Note that as of around 10am TSLA has been trading almost in perfect harmony with the Nasdaq. So I don't see us rising up out of this slump and will likely lock in at best 260 today.
Keep in mind that this is triple witching day, the major quarterly expiration of options. Big players who had been writing both puts and calls often attempt to push the share price toward a round number by the time of the market close on expiration day.
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So you really thought that there is 90% chance that TSLA will go under $250?
BTW you tweaked numbers add to more than 100%
Vgrin, no, I do not think there's a 90% chance TSLA will go under $250, nor does my tweak add to over 100%. under $230 and under $190 are subsets of under $250, and under $190 is a subset of under $230.
Thanks, got it - but personally think that chance that TSLA goes below $250 is way less than 65% ...
chickensevil
Active Member
Of course, right AFTER I say this, TSLA decides to break away from the NASDAQ... I give up!
If you actually believe any of this, you should be knocking people over to get to a computer and buy some puts/sell calls. You are getting way better than 10:1 on your money to buy some 180 puts.
I have 60-65% of my net worth in TSLA, as a long-term investment, that's plenty of risk for me. The 35-40% I have elsewhere is equal to ~100% of what my net worth was in 2012 when I created my long-term TSLA position. Sitting on common shares another 5-6 years will do plenty more for me than I'll ever need financially if Tesla gets to $500 (though I'll probably continue to hold a substantial position).
Since the pop in the Spring of 2013 I only do short-term trading when I think the stock is obviously undervalued. I do this with shares. For me the only options play with low enough risk to my liking is selling puts (though I'll admit, I don't know and haven't looked up the strategy you're suggesting).
I only mentioned those scenarios because someone asked me yesterday about adding to their position and I thought the framework I offered him might be helpful here. If you disagree with and/or dislike my estimations, that's okay, but I say them to share my perspective with no hidden agenda... someone may have a better grasp of the probabilities than I do, but I certainly believe everything I wrote.
Some comments from Angela Merkel (I believe Elon visited the German Chancellor building recently?), quite flattering that she thinks Tesla could be a threat to German automakers.
Policy makers must shape “digital changes” in the world, German Chancellor Angela Merkel says in
speech at Christian Democratic Union party event.
• Risk is that Tesla, Google “may one day build the better cars and just use us” as suppliers
• Germany needs to keep up or possibly fall decades behind
• Germany “has its hands full” trying to keep up on big data, driverless cars, nationwide broadband
• “As far as I can tell, this will be a tough job”
Policy makers must shape “digital changes” in the world, German Chancellor Angela Merkel says in
speech at Christian Democratic Union party event.
• Risk is that Tesla, Google “may one day build the better cars and just use us” as suppliers
• Germany needs to keep up or possibly fall decades behind
• Germany “has its hands full” trying to keep up on big data, driverless cars, nationwide broadband
• “As far as I can tell, this will be a tough job”
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I think the comment on the Model X reveal is fabricated information. Tesla doesn't reveal vehicles at auto shows like Ford or Honda or others. Tesla hosts its own special event like Apple does for iPhone.
We'll know when the X event will be held as soon as someone reports getting an invitation. I just hope there's a live webcast for those of us who didn't reserve!
I'm sorry, but this is pretty weak. If you let me predict every stock in the market with $400 range I'd bet I'd get it right 99.9% of the time. Is this all it takes to earn a million dollar bonus at Goldman?A good explanation of their valuation they just updated, continues on their previous analogy of Elon vs Jobs/Ford/Maytag
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/09/20140919_iTSLA.jpg
In the medium-term we have a convergence of two trend lines (historical resistance/support) right at Christmas/New years... Does that mean that Santa is going to pay a nice surprise to all us $TSLA holders, and we will break through $310 on a Model X reveal or some other trick that Elon pulls out of his magic hat?
On page 2 of the 2Q11 report, there was a timeline:
On page 2 of the 3Q11 report Tesla stated this:
"During the weekend of October 1st, we welcomed almost
3,000 Model S reservation holders, journalists and investors
to our Tesla Factory. "
On October 10th, Motor Trend was the first to publish a review.
So the reveal of the Beta Model S was about 9 months before the first delivery. I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla decided to do the refresh Model S (with all the features leaked from version 6 and maybe lane departure warning and adaptive cruise control; also AWD model s) alongside with their Beta Model X reveal on the 3rd anniversary of the Model S Beta, even revealing just the X will be spectacular. In short, I expect something in October.
Extra details: Reservations before the reveal was a little less than 5000, and by the time the first Model S was delivered it was 10,000.
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Elon's recent comment that free cash will start growing significantly in 3rd quarter of 2015 gives an indication that he believes Model X will be in production during Q3 of next year. Perhaps you might consider working backwards from there to guess when the official unveiling will be.
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