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You have done much better than I with your TSLA holdings based on your previous posts so I should take advice from you. My plan: hold my core stock position for now, sell all ASAP IF we get a black swan. Example: I have been completely out if TSLA twice over the past 18 months. The first was 'f*re' and the second was disappointing Q3ER 2013. Both were fairly close together. I will not sell the core holdings right now as the fundamentals have not changed and no recent events fall into the black swan category. I have sold all my 'trading' TSLA stock to accumulate cash for what I hope....maybe wrong...will be a lower buy in price between now and Q4ER/Detroit Auto Show. I do have some 2016 LEAPS at various strike prices. Shortest term option is March15 250 calls which I have been nibbling at over the last month. I may buy some puts going into Q3ER both as a 'play' and for protection against my stock/March calls. However, I am not confident enough in my short term strategy to sell out my core and buy all puts.
I would be interested to hear your thoughts on a short term strategy if you are sitting on 40% cash;40%stock; 15% LEAPs and 5% March 250 calls.
thanks
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I'm with Al here. Especially if we have a continued run-up towards Q3 earnings I'll take all calls off the table (including LEAPS) before the ER. we have enough info now to assume either miss or near miss on guidance (we all know that for some reason mr. Market cares a great deal about this number) and enough info to assume that X is likely a bit delayed (Jonas' note etc). Remember the IV is usually very high as well just before ER so makes sense to sell calls there rather than after, if you don't expect a significant gap-up. Also, if TSLA is trading in the high or very high band before ER I will buy puts. Love the company and nothing has changed IMO but this is the short-term thread, right?
chickensevil
Active Member
Price depending, I would agree with this. If we stay sub 230 before ER I would expect flat to up on earnings... If we push up from here I would expect a pullback unless we get really lucky.
I believe that besides macro events, TSLA's drop in price these past months has been related to a lack of Model X news and to concerns about a slight miss in the upcoming third quarter. Once we get that ER out of the way and once the Model X Beta is released, TSLA will be moving upward quickly. Yes, I think there's a reasonable chance of a dip after the 3Q ER, but I see the stock recovering very quickly thereafter. I'm basing a decision to hold my shares and a recent decision to add shares on values we should expect to see from TSLA stock in 2015. A 100 point gain suits my investing needs. If I were trying for a larger gain, there's the chance that I may not see the dip and be able to buy in at that lower figure. Since Elon has been giving out snippets of very positive guidance since the past ER (100,000 cars/year delivery rate at the end of 2015, very substantial positive cash flow starting in the third quarter) I would expect him to consolidate these snippets into a picture that is quite bullish. I'm not willing to pass up attractive prices now because positive guidance during the 3QER or a positive statement about Model X release date would remove the ability to buy stocks at a price that results in as remarkable a gain within a year.
I fail to see how the Model X Alpha, Beta or Detroit Auto Show reveal will will cause a meaningful spike with a company that has a $30B market cap, other then a larger battery pack most major features are known & likely priced in. The Gigafactory site selection, more then double expected state incentives & passage ahead of schedual removed more risk & should have been caused a run up but the stock was flat, so short term the Model X IMO has more risk then reward in this market. Other then X delays there hasn't been one mention of possible risks with the X launch...isn't that troubling?
Its difficult separating fanboy from investor...I struggle with it constantly.
Its difficult separating fanboy from investor...I struggle with it constantly.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Reveal with note on schedule would move stock a reveal of gen 3 and immediate large number of reservation may move stock.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Not if the "note on schedule" is "a few cars delivered in Q2 (could mean July 31st) and ramp up in Q3". I think that could hurt the stock short-term, unless a very good reason is given such as "we're implementing feature [insert insanely cool technology here]" or "the delay is so that we can switch our battery production to format xyz or chemistry xyz which will increase capacity by xyz %".
I see the 3Q14 ER as a furball the cat has to get out of its system before we press on, no more. If Tesla required an extra couple of weeks to configure the two production lines during August, such an event is a mere speedbump in the road. A delay of a couple months in Model X production would cause a short term drop in prices, but again it would be a minor bump in the road when considering the big picture. The big picture involves getting S, X, and Model 3 up to 500,000 units/year delivery rate by 2020, while meeting gross margin expectations. Elon has recently hinted (I believe in the Fox Business video) that Tesla might achieve the 500,000 delivery rate before 2020. Estimates by analysts such as Andrea James take the Earnings Per Share number expected in 2020 and discount that number a certain percentage per year to arrive at this year's value for the stock. Whether we trade above or below the analysts' targets depends upon confidence that we will make that 2020 target. Unless a macro event gets in the way, I'm seeing us making or exceeding that target. Although this is the short-term thread, the long-term value of this stock needs to be considered in short-term decisions.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
The Alpha is already known to be driving about (disclosed in Tesla 10-Q).
I don't agree that the Model X Beta or production reveal is priced in. There has been very little information recently from Tesla on the progress of X. That's creating uncertainty.
TSLA was trading at over $260 just prior to the "D" event, with analysts and spectators (myself included) giving good odds for an X to show up on Oct. 9. When that didn't happen, the stock plummeted. My guess is that $260-290 is pricing in good progress on the X. Right now all the news and speculation is on a delay.
On a related note, does anyone else find it uncanny how well Adam Jonas predicts some things and how connected to TM he seems? With the whole "agree with Elon" comment, and now with the "Model X delay" warnings, it really makes me feel like he has some really good sources inside TM and/or is in good graces with management. His timing seems a little too good sometimes.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
THIS. His connections are a two-way street though. Here he gets info ahead of others and looks like a great analyst. But who did the pumping when Tesla needed to do their capital raise? Good for them to have a way to steer stock price in the direction they want, through him. The more they feed him info, the better he looks, so when they tell him to talk the stock up or down people REALLY listen (since he's been right so much). So yes there's a tight relationship.
Yeah definitely. Thank goodness he's a fellow long. It's part of his "agree with Elon" note that gives me a bit of a queezy feeling ahead of Q3.
Chickenlittle
Banned
you previous stated an entry point of 180. if you believe it will drop to there why not sell 180 puts or sell calls at 220
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why new production facility in tillburg in first qtr with only a few cars delivered in q3 (remember july is q3). especially since their policy is to deliver in california first in case of recall or issues. would seem that the facility rented in 1st qtr would be used in second qtr
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
This is true. Messed up the date there, I meant June 30 for end of Q2. Anyway, I think Tilburg is a long-term investment. Also just now read an interview in a Norwegian magazine where Tesla's head of Norway, Kjell Arne Wold, says: "The Model X won't fit in containers. It's a really big issue for us. I'm going over to the US this month to try to find a solution."
Chickenlittle
Banned
InTheShadows
Active Member
Maybe it's too wide. Could it be wider even though it's on the same frame as the S?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Nah... I'm 99% sure it's related to height. 2 years ago when the first cars came to Norway I actually took photos (with a telephoto lense from quite far away) of them unloading the containers, they're actually not high at all.
Width is unlikely because there would be a lot of engineering to create a wider wheelbase. From this picture it doesn't look like height would be a problem except that maybe the problem is only that they can't fit as many into the container as they would like to keep shipping costs low:
Source of picture:
News
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Also I think this is the article Johan was referring to and/or another one that contains the quote:
Teslas spede norske begynnelse
It also has a similar picture of a container with Model S. I am having a hard time figuring out what the issue could be other than the quantity they can fit.
Last note: it says they put 4 Model S in a container. I imagine if they can only fit one or two Model X that would be a big problem cost wise.
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