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$227.50 was also as strike price. There were likely more than one hedge fund playing this game, and their strategies may not have coincided. And those targeting $230 could have covered their positions some hours before the close and then set up another short straddle for $227.50.
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Indeed. Some of those posts need to be transferred, perhaps to the Macroeconomic thread or better to a specifically Ebola thread.
Chickenlittle
Banned
My point is that they assure everyone than take the extra precautions for themselves. That is not leading by example.
I think that count must include these cancelled trades below:
19:14 $ 227.48 1,500,000
19:14 $ 227.48 1,500,000 - Cancelled Trade
19:14 $ 227.48 1,600,000
19:14 $ 227.48 1,600,000 - Cancelled Trade
19:13 $ 227.48 1,767,929
19:13 $ 227.48 1,767,929 - Cancelled Trade
I don't know what happened there - if it was a mistake or someone doing something on purpose?
Hmmm..even CNBC is reporting on the shenanigans that occur on option expiration day. The article is focused on SPY, but I expect it would be even more exaggerated for TSLA
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102098236
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102098236
Blocks of that same size were traded or recorded at 16:23, but they were not cancelled.
Wow, then someone is making some big moves. I wonder what that's all about? Options are based on the price at close of the regular session, right?
This sure looks like a delay in the Model X delivery of 3-6 months depending on how you interpret it:
Upgrade Button is Back
Is it still the seals on the falcon doors? Great new orders on P85D? Finalizing 100kWh+ battery? Autopilot? Cameras instead of mirrors? On the good side, reservations should be >40,000?!?
Upgrade Button is Back
Is it still the seals on the falcon doors? Great new orders on P85D? Finalizing 100kWh+ battery? Autopilot? Cameras instead of mirrors? On the good side, reservations should be >40,000?!?
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I'm sure that some prospective X buyers decided to go for the D. If the only reason they wanted the X was the Dual Motor AWD, and they didn't care about the third row seats or greater cargo volume, then going for the D instead makes sense.
Maybe it's a little lost in the post, but the person who just got a Signature reservation also got a message that said delivery was projected in Fall 2015. Unless Adam Jonas has already taken the wind out of the stock, I think this tangible evidence of delays will be poorly received. Sure, some reservations went to P85D, but how many - 5%? 10%? The delay is almost certainly some design/production issues.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
I read through the thread, and I see what you're talking about.
It could be an error in the automatic email confirmation system. The Model X webpage says, "Delivery estimate for ***new*** reservations is Fall 2015". If an upgrade reservation somehow is marked as "new", the buyer might receive an email consistent with what the webpage says.
Absent some statement from Elon, or official statement from Tesla, I think it's unclear whether there's a delay or not. Edit: the Q3 conference call should clarify Model X progress.
Some people in that thread about Model X upgrade button say the button is no longer available, at least one Canadian, anyhow. Some are speculating that a number of Signature spots opened due to Model X buyers opting instead for Model D. If so, further delay is not assured, but judging from Tesla's past, a delay of a few more months would not be surprising.
That said, the real question is when does one add to one's TSLA holdings, now or later? I've bought during the past week under the following theory. A climb from 225 to 325 during the next 3-12 months will yield a 100 point increase. A drop to the 200 day MA of 218 or so and buy-in at that point would yield a 107 point increase. Surely a drop below 200 MA is possible if there's a meltdown in the economy, but unless ebola becomes a real crisis or ISIS hits a high-value target., I suspect the economy will not see anything horrendous. A small miss on Q3 ER would drop TSLA, but not enough to plunge way below the 200 MA, especially taking into account the large number of analysts offering 320+ price targets. If you are waiting to buy shares, what is your target or what event are you waiting for? As a mostly buy and hold investor, I opted for purchasing shares and leaps last week. You may well beat my buy-in price, but in terms of risks vs. rewards, how much do you hope to gain by delaying?
I mention this issue because I see the best strategy possibly varying between an active short-range trader and a less-active long-term investor.
That said, the real question is when does one add to one's TSLA holdings, now or later? I've bought during the past week under the following theory. A climb from 225 to 325 during the next 3-12 months will yield a 100 point increase. A drop to the 200 day MA of 218 or so and buy-in at that point would yield a 107 point increase. Surely a drop below 200 MA is possible if there's a meltdown in the economy, but unless ebola becomes a real crisis or ISIS hits a high-value target., I suspect the economy will not see anything horrendous. A small miss on Q3 ER would drop TSLA, but not enough to plunge way below the 200 MA, especially taking into account the large number of analysts offering 320+ price targets. If you are waiting to buy shares, what is your target or what event are you waiting for? As a mostly buy and hold investor, I opted for purchasing shares and leaps last week. You may well beat my buy-in price, but in terms of risks vs. rewards, how much do you hope to gain by delaying?
I mention this issue because I see the best strategy possibly varying between an active short-range trader and a less-active long-term investor.
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jhm
Well-Known Member
My own approach is to buy shares long-term as the price is falling. I generally buy more shares every time the price goes down another $10. I am never sure where the bottom may be, but I am willing to ride out bearish sentiment holding shares. When the sentiment turns bullish and the price is going up I may buy more calls. Neither bullish nor bearish sentiment will last forever.
Papa: I agree and I think one can be both. You can hold a core position that you would sell only when a black swan event hits TM specifically or the macros are just taking the whole market for a large correction and prolonged recovery. You can also have funds available to buy in and out of stock/options (I include LEAPS in that) on a shorter term basis depending on short term events that affect TM or the market generally. This is personally what I do. Not claiming any greater success with this strategy than another strategy but it keeps me more engaged.
If I was a less active trader/long term holder I would totally agree with your thesis. Why wait. Buy and hold more now. If you do some trading in the stock/options short term I do believe that we will see a lower price before the Detroit Auto show in January and the Q4 ER in February. My personal opinion is that it could be 10+% under the 200dMA. When/if it hits that I do not know but that is when I would commit the majority of my shorter term funds.
jhm and AIMc, thanks for the perspectives. In looking at AIMc's response, I am reminded that most of us are likely to be hybrid investors (long-term holdings supplemented with some short-term trading). Certainly we wouldn't be putting in all this time reading this forum if we weren't willing to modify our long-term holdings by buying or selling if we saw great opportunity or great threat.
I've always pictured institutional investors as being more driven by technicals than the average investor population. For that reason I would expect to see more institutional investors getting in as we bounce off the 200 day MA and when more people are confident that tsla has bottomed out on this latest dip from ATH. Time will tell.
I've always pictured institutional investors as being more driven by technicals than the average investor population. For that reason I would expect to see more institutional investors getting in as we bounce off the 200 day MA and when more people are confident that tsla has bottomed out on this latest dip from ATH. Time will tell.
AI: 200ma steadily increases about $10/month. By saying that, I feel the 200ma will be around $260 by Q4 ER, so 10% below 200ma would mean it's higher than today's price 
Understood. I guess overall what I am thinking is there will be a buying opportunity in the $180-190 range after Q3ER. I see both a combo of macro events and what I expect may be a so-so Q3ER pulling the stock down. I may be seriously overstating this scenario. Just my opinion.AI: 200ma steadily increases about $10/month. By saying that, I feel the 200ma will be around $260 by Q4 ER, so 10% below 200ma would mean it's higher than today's price
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
I am not an expert but if this happened we would be technically broken (am I right?). Hope it will not happen.
Chickenlittle
Banned
Than you should sell everything you have in tesla and either sell short or buy puts. Any plans to do so?
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