Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[AlMc]

Steve: I think your posts are fantastic and value your opinion but I still maintain -- the problem is, the market does not care what a few hyperinformed traders like you and I think. It cares what the herd thinks, and makes bets based on how it thinks the herd will react. It is a self-fulfilling prophecy quite often, but one we are witnessing come to pass as we speak.

It is hard, as Citizen-T said, to differentiate between what mercilessly agnostic traders care about and what owners/enthusiasts care about.

Also I completely agree with Citizen-T that I do not want any tweets about P85D from Elon. It's just not being discussed by major traders at all.

If anything, I want tweets about how "important studies have shown that 90% of consumers surveyed would purchase a $35k Model 3 with 200 miles of range, autopilot, iPad-like interface, and BMW M3 performance, regardless of the price of oil."

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Yes, yes and yes.

I am far from the smartest person in this discussion but IMO, ^^^this^^^ is the situation short term. The market and the macro events that are affecting the market. Couple this with very little, if any, positive news from TM since the D event concluded has control of TSLA price short term. Furthermore, people were willing to pay a premium for perfect execution and meeting or beating guidance. Doubt has now crept into perfect execution as Q3 ER missed guidance and one can argue TM may not meet 2014 and Q4 delivery guidance.

Long term, buying at today's price and holding TSLA for years (3-5) will give one a market beating return. So, for long term investors, who cares if you buy at 180, 210 or 240.

Many people, like myself, are what I will term 'hybrid investors'. They have a core long term holding and 'trade' (I even include LEAPS in this) based on shorter term fundamentals. It is the shorter term fundamentals of the market and TM that are shaky at present time.

 

[SteveG3]

Al, as far as what you bolded in Flux's post... I tried that when I was young... and I did about as well as when I was young and tried to guess which lane of traffic would move best. I just don't go for trying to outguess everyone else's guess about herd behavior. No one believes that they are in the herd, and we're all susceptible to thinking we can outguess herd behavior. Doesn't work for me.

As I've said, I look instead at underlying valuation, and trade a little if we drop a silly amount from there, trade quite a bit if we drop a ridiculously silly amount. I think we've been in the former. With TMC, at times we get information (in this case the P85D delivery thread indicating Ds are going into production and the collective sorting out of the EPA numbers being consistent with Tesla's earlier claims), that may impact the market before anyone else. The information on TMC and the silly current price on TSLA aligned this week for me to pick up a bit of trading shares.

 

[FredTMC]

TSLA is currently at $213. It's creeping back up with the nasdaq

 

[hershey101]

Anyone know what's going on with the social thread? I see people posting, the last updated time changes, but no posts after today morning are being displayed for some reason.

 

[FredTMC]

Anyone know what's going on with the social thread? I see people posting, the last updated time changes, but no posts after today morning are being displayed for some reason.

the thread is being held up 1-2 weeks "for inspection". J/k

 

[Larken]

the thread is being held up 1-2 weeks "for inspection". J/k

Haha good one :smile:
It's especially important to keep ones sense of humor in challenging times!

 

[virtuesoft]

We have a nice looking inverted pin bar at the moment. If the market closes around this level this will be a nice bullish reversal signal. I will be getting back in if that is the case.

 

[Raffy.Roma]

It looks like the bleeding is over. Hope that tomorrow the stock starts the way back to the 200 DMA.

P.S. I also just saw some green

 

[FluxCap]

Looks like the market decided to exit their macro shorts over the course of today, and we are seeing green going into the close. Could be this morning was a local bottom, we shall see.

 

[Noble Ninja]

It does seem like things are bouncing back up again. It's now at $216. In fact, the whole market was down at open and has mostly recovered by the afternoon now. I think we may close green today and tomorrow and the rest of the week will be recovery mode.

 

[SteveG3]

fwiw, in addition to the suggestions late this morning (eastern) that Tesla might be updating personnel re the delivery timing during a meeting they apparently hold every Tuesday, a couple of other developments from the P85D delivery tracking thread today,

USAFsparky says their will be a customer delivery in Palo Alto today (we shall see), and


commasign posted this:

December 10th, 2014 Dear Matthew, Thank you for your order of a P85D. I trust you will be delighted with the car! Unfortunately, we experienced some delays in the production of the first P85D. I apologize for any inconvenience we are causing. We have now resolved the final concern, which was the airbag deployment for the upgraded seat design. We always want to err on the side of caution. We are building and shipping P85D cars now. Your delivery specialist will contact you shortly to finalize the delivery date. Many thanks for your support and your patience! Best regards,

Tracking P85D delivery thread - Page 164

both posts on linked page

 

[uselesslogin]

All, P85D customers have gotten an explanation. It sounds like deliveries are starting tomorrow or so. I would expect a good Q4 report if things go smoothly from there so we just have to hold on a couple months.

Just got this:

December 10th, 2014 Dear Matthew, Thank you for your order of a P85D. I trust you will be delighted with the car! Unfortunately, we experienced some delays in the production of the first P85D. I apologize for any inconvenience we are causing. We have now resolved the final concern, which was the airbag deployment for the upgraded seat design. We always want to err on the side of caution. We are building and shipping P85D cars now. Your delivery specialist will contact you shortly to finalize the delivery date. Many thanks for your support and your patience! Best regards,

Jerome Guillen VP, Worldwide Sales and Service

 

[Intl Professor]

Unless I missed it, no one seems to be concerned about a government shutdown. That won't be deliberate if the speaker gets his way, but who knows what the Senate will do and they are all haggling over terrorism of all things. This possibility is likely to lead to at least a temporary downward spike of a volatile market.

 

[maoing]

P85D started to hit SC around bay area from this afternoon.
http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...elivery-thread?p=835578&viewfull=1#post835578

To correct that immediately, here is an update: I just spoke to the Corte Madera store and they said their P85D is now at their store! I'll try to stop by this afternoon to check it out.

 

[Noble Ninja]

Unless I missed it, no one seems to be concerned about a government shutdown. That won't be deliberate if the speaker gets his way, but who knows what the Senate will do and they are all haggling over terrorism of all things. This possibility is likely to lead to at least a temporary downward spike of a volatile market.

Wasn't there a government shutdown last October? This is becoming an annual event around this time of the year ...

 

[SteveG3]

Great to see "D" starting to roll out. I think the timing of this "halo car" entering the market is great as it may well help show the weakness of the cheap gas prices bad for Tesla demand storyline. More than ever before Tesla will have a car out there with stunning performance that demonstrates people will want the car because it's the most appealing car for them, without even considering it being electric (and cheaper to fuel).

Now, with that email out to reservationists re the D delay being over, it seems more likely we get a Tesla blog on D deliveries etc very soon- I suspect in the next day or two.

 

[FluxCap]

Tesla Rebounds as Shoppers Look Past Pump Prices - Bloomberg

 

[TSLAopt]

Great to see "D" starting to roll out. I think the timing of this "halo car" entering the market is great as it may well help show the weakness of the cheap gas prices bad for Tesla demand storyline. More than ever before Tesla will have a car out there with stunning performance that demonstrates people will want the car because it's the most appealing car for them, without even considering it being electric (and cheaper to fuel).

Now, with that email out to reservationists re the D delay being over, it seems more likely we get a Tesla blog on D deliveries etc very soon- I suspect in the next day or two.

steveG,
thanks for your level headed analysis of TSLA reminding us of fundamentals in times of market panic. Similar to DaveT which unfortunately hasn't be on here much lately (hopefully not a bad omen). I had some orders to buy Jan 17 300 LEAPs in going into today at 21.40 which never triggered unfortunately and some other orders below incase we dropped to 190ish and to 165ish somehow.
however, I think you are right and that we are at a local bottom here for TSLA this morning unless the entire market crashes which part of me hopes will happen now so I get filled on a few of those LEAPs.

Perhaps per your investor relations skills you could ask tesla IR for an official communication on the P85D delays and that would help encourage them to do a blog post if they weren't planning on it already. I seem to remember you doing something similar in the last dip and Tesla coincidentally seemed to answer what you were asking them to do.

 

[Krugerrand]

Me and the Unicorn want to thank all for the best daytime soap opera since Days Of Our Lives. Like sands through the hourglass...

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

BERLIN—"The German government is expected to approve new incentives for corporate purchases of electric vehicles on Wednesday in a bid to recharge the struggling market for battery-powered cars, according to several people familiar with the situation."

Is there a government/official website that says this? The WSJ is the only website that says it will happen on Wednesday. What time on Wednesday? What needs to happen for it to be approved?

If these incentives are approved, it is a very big deal for Tesla.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/germany-expected-to-approve-tax-incentives-for-electric-cars-1417535605

On an aside, BMW's CEO announced today he plans to resign in May. Might this have something to do with the i8 being recalled?
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/10/business/bmw-ceo-norbert-reithofer-to-step-down-early.html