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Just to reiterate the significance of the China news, for anyone showing up today that may have missed this:
That's a significant committment to a lot of EV's in the world's most important emerging economy, and thus far, there is no credible competition to Tesla Motors for product desirability / customer satisfaction from any manufacturer. Traders are pricing in more sales for Tesla accordingly.
This is big, and there is more good news to come.
That's a significant committment to a lot of EV's in the world's most important emerging economy, and thus far, there is no credible competition to Tesla Motors for product desirability / customer satisfaction from any manufacturer. Traders are pricing in more sales for Tesla accordingly.
This is big, and there is more good news to come.
They need to extend those credits forever. Just look at the smog in Beijing. Rather... try to look through it.
After testing a run up, and then testing a run down, we seem to be consolidating at ~$197. This is good, IMO, as it will help set up a new baseline from which TSLA can begin another bull run. Time for everyone to catch their breath, free up some cash, and strategize.
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Well, I was one of those weak longs again. Had a sell limit at $200 on a bit over 5% of my TSLA. It executed overnight. I'm surprised, as my account showed execution on 2-10, but I didn't think that could happen after hours. What time did it first reach $200?
I've put in a new buy order at $190, but if it never gets that low again I'll be stuck with about only $170 per share profit.
Not sure about specific Tesla news, but as one of the last truly epic growth stocks in the market, I think there is a bit of a "flight to growth stocks" going on after Yellen's comments and US. Congress seemingly getting off their butts and making debt ceiling a non-issue. Folks are beginning to be afraid of missing upside in the market, and are getting bored and sick of holding cash on the sidelines. Just a theory. Good times.
NigelM
Recovering Member
You missed my tidbit from earlier today? I know it's minor but apparently someone picked it up:
http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/02/tesla-motors-inc-tsla-model-x-pre-orders/
Google news for the Model X and there's been a lot of buzz the last week or so. There's nothing the market likes more than great new products coming down the pipeline.
NigelM
Recovering Member
That's happened several times now; likely automatic sell orders at $200 keep it bumping along.
The intra-day high appears to have been $202.20. TSLA ran up to $200.54 just recently, so I was cautiously optimistic that we had burned through the sell-order book at $200. Apparently not.
+1 Nigel Very cool.
Bashing away at $200 again - and showing some signs strength to the upside, go TSLA
Not always a fan of posting CNBC videos, because it's just hot air, but just noticed this one and it's kind of funny:
This chart says Tesla is cheap | Talking Numbers - Yahoo Finance
The short says "this valuation is crazy, they'd have to make 330k cars a year with margins of 12.5% just to justify their current valuation!" and then says "BMW makes 5-6% on their cars" in an apparent attempt to say Tesla should be valued more like BMW. I guess in this case "short" and "long" definitely are appropriate words - short-term vs. long-term thinking. I hope I don't have to explain to anyone here how hilarious it is that this guy thinks TSLA's margins will be 5% and that he doesn't see the plan to get to 300k cars in a couple years.
This chart says Tesla is cheap | Talking Numbers - Yahoo Finance
The short says "this valuation is crazy, they'd have to make 330k cars a year with margins of 12.5% just to justify their current valuation!" and then says "BMW makes 5-6% on their cars" in an apparent attempt to say Tesla should be valued more like BMW. I guess in this case "short" and "long" definitely are appropriate words - short-term vs. long-term thinking. I hope I don't have to explain to anyone here how hilarious it is that this guy thinks TSLA's margins will be 5% and that he doesn't see the plan to get to 300k cars in a couple years.
Benz
Active Member
There is yet too much resistance to cross the $200 barrier. We saw that today. This will take some time. But TSLA will cross that barrier soon.
Moderator's Note: Posts discussing the article re Tesla's strategic benefit from lack of dealers (maybe make gas cars?) were moved to Long-Term Fundamentals of Tesla Motors (TSLA)
Here are some points you may be able to build something around:
Any valuation is based on assumptions in terms of what a company should be valued at. In order to have a valuation, either there needs to be historic precedence to value something against or there has to be some kind of forward assumption and multiple as to what the company will be doing at a certain point in time and how that future reality should be priced today.
People who make the claim that Tesla is overvalued and claim to have specific data in regards to that are flawed in the sense that they are also trying to predict a future with some certainty. We are all trying to predict a future with Tesla and there is uncertainty involved. What can be irksome is the value guys out there can make it seem as if it's simply about the numbers and that this is how they should be. If anyone can predict the future 100%, then please introduce them to me and I'll be happy to give them all my money to invest!
Instead of claiming that Tesla is overvalued, they should be arguing over whether or not the company can achieve what it states and what a potential future of the company could really look like. When it comes to the stock price of Tesla, at the stage of maturity the company is in, it's largely about how the market views and values it's future state. The argument over valuation is either concerned with a true present state or a potential future state based on a bunch of assumptions.
Another great flaw in the valuation issue around Tesla is trying to benchmark the company against an industry. Is it a car company? Is it a tech company? Is it an energy company? Is it a battery company? Is it a ... (you get my point). You can see that the relative valuation of Tesla is a difficult thing to surmise at this point because in my opinion it is all of the above. It's a company that has the potential to get into so many of these different arenas which are some of the largest dollar industries in the world and this cross industry potential makes it extremely difficult to benchmark if you only think about one industry at a time for valuations.
I believe we in the Tesla community happen to be much better informed and have a clearer picture as to what that potential future state may be and we happen to believe that the stock price doesn't accurately account for that potential future yet. Realize that any stock price is somewhat disconnected from market share and has an emotional component in it. The current stage we are in is an early stage, so there is much uncertainty and FUD out there around the company (Large emotional volatility and uncertainty potential with the stock price), which in turn gives great opportunity for those who can see the future of the company more accurately than someone else and can understand if the stock price is in line with that potential future.
In the end, all stock pricing is about growth and profit and what people are willing to pay for that future. But along the way to getting to that later state stock price, there is a lot of shaking that goes with it!
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