Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[FluxCap]

So far this morning I'm seeing the shorts send barrages of sell orders after any small buying rally appears. They are spending a ton of money to push things down if they can. We shall see how the morning unfolds.

Edit: and now it's looking like this minor dip is too tempting to resist, buyers coming back in.

 

[Julian Cox]

We had quite interesting (for me anyhow) discussion with DaveT on this subject, starting with the following post: Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations - Page 17

Ok, I looked at that link (Discussion with DaveT) and from what I can see you guys are calculating a minor GAAP profit based on some assumptions about the 20% revenue uplift note.

What I cannot see that you have done (unless I have truly missed something) is to fundamentally alter the ratio of GAAP adjustment losses as a percentage of total revenues.

There will be a fraction of lease accounting losses on the Q4 ER compared to those booked in Q3 because because there was no lease accounting in Europe during Q4 and that is where a large proportion of the sales were recorded. There was also a reduction in deliveries to the 8 states that qualify for lease accounting adjustment.

If you are serious about $0.50 EPS non-GAAP I expect we could be looking at $0.25, possibly more as GAAP EPS. If you think $0.08 is significant, I guess $0.25+ would be a monumental outcome.

 

[100thMonkey]

back in on the dip minus some profits, now I won't feel like an idiot if there is a big post earnings pop, and no pressure to sell for quite a while if there is a dip.

 

[chickensevil]

Well, with the stock price back under 200, I feel a little bit less stressed about the earnings causing downward pressure. Seems people are selling off based on the ratings downgrade...

 

[Julian Cox]

Baa, earnings day is always a dip.

I say put it all on black, onwards and devil take the hindmost.

 

[chickensevil]

Baa, earnings day is always a dip.

I say put it all on black, onwards and devil take the hindmost.

I was suggesting it as a good thing. Because if it pushed on even higher in price I was going to basically be forced to dump out pre-earnings.

 

[ggr]

Fibs are the only thing you can use to draw resistance and support lines when a stock is in new price levels that it has never been before. When there are no past peaks and valley's to draw upon. The only one other time I think I used the 423% level is for the VW short squeeze... BTW, we have just just surpassed the VW squeeze. Even though it took a year. So there are those significance.

I would assign this resistance level as a one shot only thing. Unless we linger here for a long time or the earnings bombs and make this line significant, this line will not become a hard resistance or support.

I know there's a component of the rise over the past year that's due to a short squeeze, but really the rise is all about Tesla demonstrating cash flow, profitability, execution performance and great products. There may yet be more squeeze.

 

[keithz]

What would you guys do?

I have 200 shares. Sold 2 calls for this Friday. Strike of 220. Sold for 5.15. Pocketed over 1k. Now up over 275 on the position.

Should I buy those calls back and pocket 275. Or wait it out and pocket the 1k? Does anybody think the stock will be over 225 at the end of the week? (220 is strike but 225 is my breakeven for this trade)

 

[eepic]

Ok, I looked at that link (Discussion with DaveT) and from what I can see you guys are calculating a minor GAAP profit based on some assumptions about the 20% revenue uplift note.

What I cannot see that you have done (unless I have truly missed something) is to fundamentally alter the ratio of GAAP adjustment losses as a percentage of total revenues.

There will be a fraction of lease accounting losses on the Q4 ER compared to those booked in Q3 because because there was no lease accounting in Europe during Q4 and that is where a large proportion of the sales were recorded. There was also a reduction in deliveries to the 8 states that qualify for lease accounting adjustment.

If you are serious about $0.50 EPS non-GAAP I expect we could be looking at $0.25, possibly more as GAAP EPS. If you think $0.08 is significant, I guess $0.25+ would be a monumental outcome.

imo the 4Q EPS isn't going to be that important a number, it's forward guidance and I think it's gonna be a huge beat given what we've heard from elon and co recently.

 

[austinEV]

EPS probably shouldn't be the important number, but wall street is what it is.

 

[eepic]

EPS probably shouldn't be the important number, but wall street is what it is.

I meant for wall street, as in forward guidance will be the much bigger headline story tomorrow (unless gigafactory news trumps that).

 

[Blip]

I sold half of my tsla and invested in a straddle/strangle. I belive it is a 50/50-gamble...

 

[Julian Cox]

EPS probably shouldn't be the important number, but wall street is what it is.

I would be grateful for an indication that I am not going nuts.

According to GAAP, Q3, Tesla was a loss making company by $0.32 per share. That is the baseline for the bots and the screens in Wall Street.

From the Q3 Shareholders letter:

"Q3 non-GAAP revenues were $603 million, up 9% from Q2, while GAAP revenues were $431 million"

There is $172 Million USD missing due to GAAP adjustments, most of which pure BS due to lease accounting from 8 US States that are eligible for Tesla Finance via US Bank and Wells Fargo and hence get a residual guarantee that GAAP confuses with leasing.

Worse case scenario, 20% increase from Q3 revenues is $723 million. What if the GAAP adjustment is $51.6 million (25% of the Q3 deductions pro-rata) because in Q4 Tesla shipped a fraction of the goods to those 8 States where Lease Accounting deduction is possible.

We would have GAAP Revenues at $671 million (up from $431 million) and GAAP Profits at 75% of non-GAAP profits.

If Dave T and Vishipun are correct that is 35.5 $cts in GAAP profit, more than reversing a 32 $cts GAAP loss on Q3.

Analyst estimates:

"On a generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) basis, Tesla is expected to post a loss of $US0.02 per share."

Tesla Announces Earnings Today -- Here's What To Expect | Business Insider

If it is in fact a GAAP profit of $35.5 cents or anything like it - which is HIGHLY LIKELY FOR VERY GOOD REASON OF SHIPPING CARS IN Q4 ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY TO PLACES WHERE LEASE ACCOUNTING DOES NOT APPLY - LIKE EUROPE

TSLA WILL GO TO THE MOON. FACT.

 

[eepic]

that's a good point about the smaller GAAP lease accounting applying this quarter because of the global shipments. didnt think of that!

 

[Julian Cox]

that's a good point about the smaller GAAP lease accounting applying this quarter because of the global shipments. didnt think of that!

THANK YOU

 

[Gtoffo]

Dropping big. Nobody is touching the stock for fear of what happens tomorrow / taking profits form the pre-earnings rally.

Or is there something more?

P.S. Considering adding more on the drop.

 

[Johan]

Dropping big. Nobody is touching the stock for fear of what happens tomorrow / taking profits form the pre-earnings rally.

Or is there something more?

Consumer reports break down?

 

[uselesslogin]

Dropping big. Nobody is touching the stock for fear of what happens tomorrow / taking profits form the pre-earnings rally.

Or is there something more?

I take this as a positive sign. Q1 and Q2 2013 were preceded by a drop and then earnings were good and the stock went up. Q3 2013 OTOH.

 

[Julian Cox]

Dropping big. Nobody is touching the stock for fear of what happens tomorrow / taking profits form the pre-earnings rally.

Or is there something more?

Happened before Q1 and Q2.


Smart money reads post 6 up from this one. (Inevitable huge GAAP BEAT)

 

[eepic]

Consumer reports break down?

is there news with consumer reports?