Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[sub]

Forgot to mention in previous post: I knew that the one (and only) share of TSLA I hold might come in handy one day

@Mods - For some reason when I get on the TMC forums on my work computer Internet Explorer crashes. I have a lot of issues with my computer lately but only TMC causes it to crash (every time, usually sooner than later). For this reason I don't post here much during the day.

Your not the only one TMC has been locking up in IE for me also for the past week or so.

 

[Jeeps17]

Try a different browser like Chrome or ****fox.

I LOL'd at that one.

:biggrin:

 

[brianstorms]

Wreckless growth would be fine with me.

 

[FluxCap]

Some consolidation around 204 after a spike down and back up this morning. Looks like the market is comfortable with this price for the time being.

Anyone trading the intraday movements today?

And sleepy, if we hit 280 by end of March, I will pay for your rental car and one tasty beverage of your choice at the shareholder's meeting.

 

[DaveT]

And sleepy, if we hit 280 by end of March, I will pay for your rental car and one tasty beverage of your choice at the shareholder's meeting.

Nice. How about instead of a rental car, you splurge for a limo/chauffeur for 2 days? Sleepy will be riding in style.

 

[AudubonB]

Wreckless growth would be fine with me.

Cute!

 

[austinEV]

Nice. How about instead of a rental car, you splurge for a limo/chauffeur for 2 days? Sleepy will be riding in style.

I will pitch in for sure. That steak dinner might become a TMC banquet.

 

[FredTMC]

He also said reckless growth :smile:

I also think (and have been for a while - since pre-Q3 ER) that the 2014 guidance will be minimum of 40K. Based on my calculations they target about 46K, and will not guide to more than 15% under that number. I also believe they will guide to overall 30% gross margin in 2014.

I still feel they'll guide to 35k cars for 2014. I'd be thrilled with higher.

 

[Causalien]

If it hit $280 we should all pitch in for a party. How about 1% of whatever you make from $200 to $280?

 

[DaveT]

I still feel they'll guide to 35k cars for 2014. I'd be thrilled with higher.

I also think they'll guide 35k cars for 2014, even though they know they can do a lot more. I think it's best for them to be conservative and outperform.

I do think they could guide for 30% minimum gross margin by the end of the year. That seems very doable. In fact, just ramping production could given them that extra margin.

There's a possibility that they guide for 40k (even though I don't think its likely). But they would need to be building some serious cars right now. I don't rule out that possibility, especially since someone posted this in another thread:

Interesting observation on production and feel free to move if not the right place
I was at Fremont SC This past Saturday night at 1030 and the employee parking lot was packed as if it was a Tuesday at 10am

Anybody has any info that supports this?

 

[FluxCap]

Nice. How about instead of a rental car, you splurge for a limo/chauffeur for 2 days? Sleepy will be riding in style.

Done!

So we've had a pretty interesting trading pattern in the pre-lunch hours this morning. Started the trading day off with some heavy profit-taking on the Apple rumor, followed by a flood of buyers bringing things back up. Lots of stickiness around the 204 area this morning with a test down and test up.

Here's an intraday chart for anyone interested:

 

[Krugerrand]

I guess that the f*** made their partners pause a bit.

I doubt it. Any company or individual truly wanting to be a part of a historical Giga Factory isn't going to be swayed by a drunk, a truck bumper turned javeline or a trailer hitch. The entire enterprise would be a huge deal to ink and as such, ironing out all the little details might have taken more time than they'd hoped - if Bonnie's speculation is true, which seems as good a reason as any for the strangeness of the ER call.

 

[Causalien]

Yeah, 204 is the 423% fib retracement line. I can't believe it is this spot on when I drew it several months ago.

I am referring to this chart: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 149

 

[kenliles]

Yeah, 204 is the 423% fib retracement line. I can't believe it is this spot on when I drew it several months ago.

I am referring to this chart: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 149

wow, that's amazing actually. Is there an intrinsic significance to the 423% level? (I'm not well schooled on fib levels)

 

[SteveG3]

Yeah, 204 is the 423% fib retracement line. I can believe it is this spot on when I drew it several months ago.

I am referring to this chart: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 149

someone asked why there is expectation of information on the battery factory for this call. About a month ago, Elon did an interview with two people on CNBC (one being Phil Labeau), and said there'd be more on the battery factory on this call.

I'm cautiously optimistic we hear something tomorrow (gut says ~70% likely). While Elon did make those comments, I definitely remember with the "5 part trilogy" of announcements in the spring, more than once it took weeks longer than originally hoped to get some of the announcements out (not a criticism of Elon, I like that he just talks without typical guarded corporate conservatism, but a side effect is that as life happens, he doesn't have buffers built into many of his statements. fwiw, I take his openness as almost a principled statement that something like "I refuse to adjust my actions and statements to the assumption that people are incapable of being mature and rational". of course, maybe he just can't help himself, and just is who he is.).

as to guidance, agree 35K, perhaps as high as 37K though internally they probably see 40-45K (I don't think anyone outside the company if battery supply will have substantial uptick towards beginning or towards the end of Q2).

last thought... over $200 "whooohoooo!"

 

[vgrinshpun]

I still feel they'll guide to 35k cars for 2014. I'd be thrilled with higher.

If we agree on 46K/year internal target, there is no way they will guide to less than 40K. I understand underpromise and overdeliver, but it only works up to a point. Having the two too far from the optimum ratio is counterproductive. If you look at how much they overdelivered above the guidance in the past, 15% seems to be the chosen optimum number. That is why I believe the guidance will be 40K.

I also think that there will be massive surprise on EPS as compared to average analysts expectations.

 

[FluxCap]

I also think that there will be massive surprise on EPS as compared to average analysts expectations.

This may be the case, but I still think that EPS, at this stage in TSLA's evolution (revolution?) is so low on the list of things that should be used to analyze the future value of this company that I wish analysts would not focus so much on it, but they tend to be obsessed with it. As I believe sleepy said some time ago, for a truly disruptive growth company still in the beginning stages of its trajectory, a short term "spot check" of EPS is not the best indicator of future potential.

Demand growth is usually a focus, but Tesla is that rare company that literally can't seem to find a cap on the demand for its products at any price.

So then, a focus on how management is handling the growth of the company from an engineering, supply chain, sales channel, and even PR standpoint becomes more important. Indicators like margins, future guidance and especially supply chain / production optimizations as the company scales are things I am focused on.

Anyway, just saying -- EPS will be watched because the market is obsessed with it, but I really think there is a bigger, better story to tell. And I think we will hear a lot of it from Elon and company tomorrow.

 

[vgrinshpun]

This may be the case, but I still think that EPS, at this stage in TSLA's evolution (revolution?) is so low on the list of things that should be used to analyze the future value of this company that I wish analysts would not focus so much on it, but they tend to be obsessed with it. As I believe sleepy said some time ago, for a truly disruptive growth company still in the beginning stages of its trajectory, a short term "spot check" of EPS is not the best indicator of future potential.

Totally agree, but the main word here is "should". I personally value growth attributes much more, but as you said a lot of people focus on EPS. So, just to support Sleepy's $280 target, I wanted to emphasize that massive beat of $0.20 or so consensus EPS WILL turn a lot of heads.

 

[DaveT]

If we agree on 46K/year internal target, there is no way they will guide to less than 40K. I understand underpromise and overdeliver, but it only works up to a point. Having the two too far from the optimum ratio is counterproductive. If you look at how much they overdelivered above the guidance in the past, 15% seems to be the chosen optimum number. That is why I believe the guidance will be 40K.

I'm thinking they might have an internal "hard" goal of 40k units (start year at 600/week, end year at 1000/week = avg 800/week x 50 weeks).
And they might have an internal "soft" goal of 45k units (start year at 600/week, end year at 1200/week = avg 900/week x 50 weeks).
The hard goal they want to meet but they might not be willing to share it as guidance. Since it's an internal goal.
So, they might guide a number that isn't a "goal" but rather something they know they can achieve. Thus, 35k units per year.
Also, many analysts are expecting less than 35k units for 2014 so Tesla management might reason that 35k units is enough to guide for and they can raise that guidance at future ERs (ie., Q2, Q3 ER).

I also think that there will be massive surprise on EPS as compared to average analysts expectations.

What's your EPS guesstimate?

 

[vgrinshpun]

What's your EPS guesstimate?

As I posted before, the range IMO will be somewhere between $0.51 and $0.7.

Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014 - Page 165