Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Clprenz]

My math on 2020:
Model S/X:
100k deliveries
100k ASP
30% Gross Margin

Gen3:
500k deliveries
42k ASP
20% GM - Elon expressed not wanting to push margins

Revenue: 31 billion
Profit: 7.2 billion
CAPEX: 1.5 billion Assuming a growth in spending of 40% per year
Total profit: 5.7 Billion
shares diluted: 150 million
EPS $38
Tech P/E of 30
Share price $1140

That is what I think is the minimum

 

[aznt1217]

Limiting factor might be the Fremont factory's car-building capacity at that point. Toyota/GM used to crank out 500,000 vehicles from this plant.

Probably, the old plant was efficient back then in the 90s making the Geo Metro/Corolla platform vehicles. Lots of things have changed (namely robotics, improved logistical efficiency, better workflows/procurement, a higher degree of vertical integration, and layout of the lines) indicate that this shouldn't be THAT hard to achieve, but quality is key. The Gigafactory alone will support 500k, I think Tesla's play here is too improve margins and get to that mass spread EV goal faster while simultaneously hedging itself (brilliant business move). I also think Tesla engineers' prowess is at play here. Elon isn't the type to wait for things to be developed. Many of the Asian manufacturers are risk averse and focus on incremental improvements (culturally).

What's going to be interesting is how many will be sold and I argue the margins will be higher on Gen 3 than Model S currently due to higher options uptake and sheer economies of scale. The Gen 3 will not only go after the mainstream, but also the A4, 3, IS, buyers who typically drop boatloads of money for extra features.

 

[DougFreshYeah]

what took you so long to contribute? I try but my knowledge is limited compared to the big guns on here, and I am thankful for their contribution.

I am still researching and learning so I was just sitting in the corning taking notes. I am holding a few call options for march 28 250 and I am trying to figure a good time to close them out.

 

[sub]

some of the guys are rolling those out to a higher strike, I believe Mario is one that has been talking about this recently. It's not something I have done yet so i'm not sure on the best play. If I were holding those and I was planning to just sell them, My thought would be early to middle of next week once the expected run up (my expectation) from here based on the giga factory information has run it's course. Hopefully the other's will chime in and give their perspective.

 

[Monsoon]

Probably, the old plant was efficient back then in the 90s making the Geo Metro/Corolla platform vehicles. Lots of things have changed (namely robotics, improved logistical efficiency, better workflows/procurement, a higher degree of vertical integration, and layout of the lines) indicate that this shouldn't be THAT hard to achieve, but quality is key. The Gigafactory alone will support 500k, I think Tesla's play here is too improve margins and get to that mass spread EV goal faster while simultaneously hedging itself (brilliant business move). I also think Tesla engineers' prowess is at play here. Elon isn't the type to wait for things to be developed. Many of the Asian manufacturers are risk averse and focus on incremental improvements (culturally).

Let's not forget, that old factory had to build and install gasoline engines... that's an order of magnitude more little parts, supply-chain issues, petrol chemicals, testing, etc. Electric motors are MUCH simpler. So perhaps, more cars rolling out of the same square footage? Yes, that seems plausible.

 

[EchoDelta]

My math on 2020:


Share price $1140

That is what I think is the minimum

Many intangibles are hard to price - Elon may be focusing exclusively on Space X & Mars since 2018/9, and even announced his trip by 2020.

 

[Acmykguy]

I thanked Douglas Kass on twitter for my new juicer that I bought today to celebrate the squeeze (pun intended fully)

Twitter / toruonu: @DougKass Yes and Tesla isnt ...

View attachment 44213

I had such a crappy night this post actually made me burst out laughing! Thank you! I needed this!

 

[DaveT]

$266.21 ($194.50 Euro) at Frankfurt exchange right now.

 

[kenliles]

$266.21 ($194.50 Euro) at Frankfurt exchange right now.

Yowzer.
Thanks for that late night report Dave

 

[Norse]

Goldman Sachs raises PT from $118 to $170 rating still neutral for some reason.

Edited!

 

[FANGO]

Morgan Stanley raises PT from $118 to $170 rating still neutral for some reason.

Uhh...they just raised to 320 so i think thats a typo . Who did this and where'd you get the info?

 

[Norse]

Uhh...they just raised to 320 so i think thats a typo . Who did this and where'd you get the info?

LOL, it was GS
It was on my IB feed from Reuters, IB has an excellent news feed on their app.

 

[FANGO]

LOL, it was GS
It was on my IB feed from Reuters, IB has an excellent news feed on their app.

Hmm GS upgraded...that means it'll dip 20% today right? Everyone get your buying fingers ready!

 

[Matthias Buhl]

Goldman Sachs raises PT from $118 to $170 rating still neutral for some reason.

Edited!

Hey Norse,
Do you have a link for that? I can't really find any Info on that.

Anyone has a suggestion what this could mean for todays stock price. Thinking of taking profits an getting in at lower levels?

 

[Norse]

Hey Norse,
Do you have a link for that? I can't really find any Info on that.

Anyone has a suggestion what this could mean for todays stock price. Thinking of taking profits an getting in at lower levels?

Can't find it, found a new one from Baird with maintained PT.

Baird analyst Ben Kallo is positive on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) 'gigafactory' and $1.6 billion convertible notes capital raise, announced after the close.

"The news is positive because (1) the capital raise carries lower dilution than an equity capital raise and (2) the factory's estimated capex of $4B-$5B is substantially lower than many estimates," Kallo said. "Furthermore, gigafactory production is expected to reduce battery pack costs per kWh by 30% by 2017 making the Gen III one step closer to reality."

The analyst maintained a Buy rating and price target of $245.


http://www.streetinsider.com/Analys...Raise+News+is+a+Positive+-+Baird/9223092.html

 

[Mario Kadastik]

The analyst maintained a Buy rating and price target of $245.

Heh, TSLA is at 262 and they estimate it'll go to 245 and set a buy rating. That's a bit conflicting statements With a PT of 245 I'd expect a Hold rating, not Buy

 

[FANGO]

Heh, TSLA is at 262 and they estimate it'll go to 245 and set a buy rating. That's a bit conflicting statements With a PT of 245 I'd expect a Hold rating, not Buy

Andrea James did the same with a PT of 90 or something and a buy rating when tesla was over 100. Her note at the time said "PT under review." I'm guessing that's what's happening here. Analysts can't update things every day I suppose.

 

[Norse]

Andrea James did the same with a PT of 90 or something and a buy rating when tesla was over 100. Her note at the time said "PT under review." I'm guessing that's what's happening here. Analysts can't update things every day I suppose.

18. feb. 2014 - Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and raised his price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) from $187 to $215
20. feb. 2014 - Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and raised his price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) from $215 to $245 ...

Just almost every day.

 

[FANGO]

18. feb. 2014 - Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and raised his price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) from $187 to $215
20. feb. 2014 - Baird analyst Ben Kallo reiterated an Outperform rating and raised his price target on Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA) from $215 to $245 ...

Just almost every day.

Hahaha...well, okay then. So maybe he'll upgrade PT tomorrow? Hehe.

 

[Citizen-T]

BoA maintains $65 price target. Doug Kass doesn't realize that firm is a joke when it comes to TSLA.

Twitter / DougKass: Merrill Lynch maintains $65/share ...