Well, I would say that the bull flag didn't pan out, nor did the triangle. I think we need to retest the 20 day MA at 227 or even go down to find that "gap" in the 220ish range. TSLA has traditionally found loads of support at the 20 day, outside of the relatively short f*re days.
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Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Perfect storm?
So let me get this straight, more experienced market traders might want to correct and improve on the hypothesis and answer some of my questions.
As of yesterday we know that TSLA short interest was 31.3M shares at end of trading 25.02 (the day of the MS upgrade where TSLA touched $259 intraday and finished at $248). After that TSLA has seen a slow slump to where it is today possibly meaning that more shorters piled in and after the NJ news even more probably poured in so let's assume it's at 33M shares.
Now there's been talk that finally TSLA has met all the criteria for the inclusion of S&P 500. As I understand the last component was having 4 consecutive quarters of profit. Can someone elaborate how this is precisely defined and if there's any wiggle room. The main question is non-GAAP vs GAAP vs operating cash flow. If TSLA indeed has met all the criteria how certain is the inclusion being after current months (that being March as Feb ones expired the week before Tesla reported Q4) options expire. This would set the date on 21.03.14.
So can someone with more historic perspective outline how this plays out IF it were done indeed on 21.03. I guess after the trading concludes on 21.03 the S&P would make the announcement and there would be an immediate reaction in AH trade. Can the S&P funds buy the shares in AH trade or do they buy the next day when the market opens? Do they place market orders or try to game the market buying in chunks?
What is the historic precedence for companies that have met the S&P criteria, does anyone know cases where they de-facto met the criteria, but were not included and if they were included, then how did the price and buying react after the event.
This combined with the humongous short interest looks like the perfect storm that if played right could mean early retirement for everyone who didn't yet get this in 2013
But I'd like to understand how much variability there is in this. It seems the theory hasn't gotten media interest yet so we're at an advantage right now and this slump might be the perfect buying opportunity to set up for this trade (I'm moving my March 21st calls out to April for example). I guess the worst that could happen is that nothing is concluded and the weekend of 22-23.03 is an ordinary weekend so the options prices drop with theta and you lose a bit of money, but if this hits the media and the price is rolled up a lot in anticipation and nothing happens, then I guess there'd be quite a slump on 24th.
So let me get this straight, more experienced market traders might want to correct and improve on the hypothesis and answer some of my questions.
As of yesterday we know that TSLA short interest was 31.3M shares at end of trading 25.02 (the day of the MS upgrade where TSLA touched $259 intraday and finished at $248). After that TSLA has seen a slow slump to where it is today possibly meaning that more shorters piled in and after the NJ news even more probably poured in so let's assume it's at 33M shares.
Now there's been talk that finally TSLA has met all the criteria for the inclusion of S&P 500. As I understand the last component was having 4 consecutive quarters of profit. Can someone elaborate how this is precisely defined and if there's any wiggle room. The main question is non-GAAP vs GAAP vs operating cash flow. If TSLA indeed has met all the criteria how certain is the inclusion being after current months (that being March as Feb ones expired the week before Tesla reported Q4) options expire. This would set the date on 21.03.14.
So can someone with more historic perspective outline how this plays out IF it were done indeed on 21.03. I guess after the trading concludes on 21.03 the S&P would make the announcement and there would be an immediate reaction in AH trade. Can the S&P funds buy the shares in AH trade or do they buy the next day when the market opens? Do they place market orders or try to game the market buying in chunks?
What is the historic precedence for companies that have met the S&P criteria, does anyone know cases where they de-facto met the criteria, but were not included and if they were included, then how did the price and buying react after the event.
This combined with the humongous short interest looks like the perfect storm that if played right could mean early retirement for everyone who didn't yet get this in 2013
But I'd like to understand how much variability there is in this. It seems the theory hasn't gotten media interest yet so we're at an advantage right now and this slump might be the perfect buying opportunity to set up for this trade (I'm moving my March 21st calls out to April for example). I guess the worst that could happen is that nothing is concluded and the weekend of 22-23.03 is an ordinary weekend so the options prices drop with theta and you lose a bit of money, but if this hits the media and the price is rolled up a lot in anticipation and nothing happens, then I guess there'd be quite a slump on 24th.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
@Mario, meakuz, Curt etc:
It seems inclusion in the SP500 will not happen yet, since, as was pointed out by Curt, there is a commitee that can choose to include or not include a company even if it meets, or doesn't meet, all of the criteria. It seems from past inclusions that very volatile stocks and "yet unproven" businesses have to wait often several quarters or even years to be included even after meeting the criteria. I would argue that the SP500 comittee is quite conservative in their evaulation of Tesla.
It seems inclusion in the SP500 will not happen yet, since, as was pointed out by Curt, there is a commitee that can choose to include or not include a company even if it meets, or doesn't meet, all of the criteria. It seems from past inclusions that very volatile stocks and "yet unproven" businesses have to wait often several quarters or even years to be included even after meeting the criteria. I would argue that the SP500 comittee is quite conservative in their evaulation of Tesla.
Norse
Active Member
New Jersey denial of $TSLA a "minor inconvenience," says Wedbush. Reaffirms outperform rating and $295 price target
TSLA discussion coming up on CNBC.
TSLA discussion coming up on CNBC.
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InTheShadows
Active Member
Norse
Active Member
Colin Rush from Northland on CNBC believes that the NJ news could be positive for Tesla in the long run.
I think so too.
If Curt started his petition today it would have gotten a lot more traction than a few weeks ago.
The majority of large indices run by S&P rebalance quarterly every third Friday of Mar, June, Sep, Dec. There are specific rules and qualification criteria for each index (usually available on the index provider's website), usually based on financial/trading statistics up to the end of the month prior to rebalance. There are definitely analysts who model all these criteria for all stocks and note potential candidates for addition/deletion to various indices, and make predictions on it weeks/months ahead.
However, the there is occasionally subjective judgement of the index provider whether or not to include something. The official announcement of changes happens after the close one week before rebalance.
Is anyone aware of any other petitions that might help with this issue? Let's cross-link them on reddit / news sites while the public is outraged with the NJ decision.
Bloomberg TV Debate: Auto Lobbyist vs Economics Professor
Long time lurker here.
Bloomberg TV had a 5 minute debate between an auto dealer lobbyist and a UM economics professor who has been working to undo all the state-level franchise defending laws and regs.
The auto dealer lobbyist made two statements that the UM professor had a field day with ... the lobbyist claimed in one sentence that "Tesla has a monopoly!" Then in another sentence boasted how Tesla only has 0.1% of NJ marketshare. The professor quickly stated that one can not have a "monopoly on a single brand" and that it was ridiculous for a group that has 99.9% market share to claim that a company with 0.1% market share has a monopoly.
The lobbyist also tried to tie the current GM non-recall fiasco to "Tesla might do the same someday." Meanwhile, back in reality the GM fiasco occurred under the very system the lobbyist was defending.
It was comedy, and any inventor with half a brain can see the ridiculousness of the lobbyists arguments.
Still waiting for the link on bloomberg ... it might be a little bit ...
Long time lurker here.
Bloomberg TV had a 5 minute debate between an auto dealer lobbyist and a UM economics professor who has been working to undo all the state-level franchise defending laws and regs.
The auto dealer lobbyist made two statements that the UM professor had a field day with ... the lobbyist claimed in one sentence that "Tesla has a monopoly!" Then in another sentence boasted how Tesla only has 0.1% of NJ marketshare. The professor quickly stated that one can not have a "monopoly on a single brand" and that it was ridiculous for a group that has 99.9% market share to claim that a company with 0.1% market share has a monopoly.
The lobbyist also tried to tie the current GM non-recall fiasco to "Tesla might do the same someday." Meanwhile, back in reality the GM fiasco occurred under the very system the lobbyist was defending.
It was comedy, and any inventor with half a brain can see the ridiculousness of the lobbyists arguments.
Still waiting for the link on bloomberg ... it might be a little bit ...
I think there's some in other the forum threads. However, IMO this is generating a lot of good publicity for Tesla with more media outlets reiterating Musk's philosophy on breakeven service and the dealership model in general
Elon Musk On Tesla's Auto Dealer Model - Business Insider
I agree with that, Tesla is getting tons of very positive publicity, people are being educated about Tesla's superb distribution and service models, so it is essentially a blessing in disguise.
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
GasDoc
Member
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
Just to speculate..... I wonder if the new jersey fiasco was an engineered event to exit or further a short position. Tesla was given 72hrs notice, and -no offense to new Jersey people-chris christie seems more than willing to do low things that could involve taking campaign money in return for pushing this agenda.
StapleGun
Member
Welcome to the forum! I'll have to look for the link to that later because it sounds awesome, thanks for posting.
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