All Tsuga is saying is, they haven't signed the contract to build the factory yet. They are still working out where it's going to be. That plays into the financing of the project. Once the location is known (down to the street address, probably) all parties will sign a gigantic contract, and at that point they are "committed."
I am sure they are very interested in committing... they are just working out the last details of the contract.
I think that level of commitment is the differentiator here. One level for Panasonic would be to play a role of an operator, hired to operate the Giga-Factory which is owned by others. Another level altogether would be to play a role of an operator AND part owner.
There several layers of implications for TSLA if Panasonic does not want to be a partner, just an operator.
1. TM will need to either come up with an additional $1B that was reported as a possible Panasonic contribution, or search for another partner, or attempt to raise additional funds publicly.
2. TM will need to decide if they want Panasonic as an operator: on one hand it is better to have part owner operating the factory to have them vested in the results, but on another, replacing Panasonic with somebody else at this stage will be a disruption and will require additional R&D expense.
All in all I do not see this as a trivial matter as it has potential impact on the finances of TM, and forces them to focus on yet another additional issue. I am confident that they will solve the puzzle one way or another, but this will put downward pressure on TSLA short term, regardless of other external factors that might drive the price movements. I think that these influences are decoupled, i.e. one could apply principle of superposition.
I actually had a feeling that Panasonic is wavering after hearing some frustation and hesitation in Elon's voice when he answered question about Panasonic participation during his Bloomberg interview back in January...
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Comments from Wedbush analyst Craig Irwin regarding the Panasonic non-committal to the factory:
"Panasonic today gave a business update where President Kazuhiro Tsuga said Panasonic has not yet committed to participating in Telsa’s GigaFactory as it could increase Panasonic’s investment risks. While Tesla contends the batteries Panasonic makes are their own technology and formulation, we note Panasonic is widely recognized as the world’s highest quality lithium ion battery manufacturer. Having Panasonic as a joint venture partner would facilitate strategic access to Pansonic's supply chain, and reduce risks in our opinion," he added. "We hear from various sources asking prices of battery materials are already starting higher on expectations for tight future supply on the ramp of Tesla's 35GWh GigaFactory."
http://www.streetinsider.com/Hot+Co...5+at+Wedbush+on+GigaFactory+Risk/9323201.html