Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[TSLA Siempre]

i bought some may 230 calls on the hope that we are at the bottom and hoping for an april elon beijing preannonuncment on first quarter results. i'm pretty sure this is a bad idea as i have lost money on virtually every options play i've made, so why i'm doing this, probably a mix of foolishness and greed

 

[Mario Kadastik]

i bought some may 230 calls on the hope that we are at the bottom and hoping for an april elon beijing preannonuncment on first quarter results. i'm pretty sure this is a bad idea as i have lost money on virtually every options play i've made, so why i'm doing this, probably a mix of foolishness and greed

I bought a $200-210 call spread just as that gamble. Cost me $3.35, possible upside $6.65. I really am out of cash

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Indeed, Mitch, that is what appears to be happening. Investors with stop limits get picked off and everyone suffers. That is why stops should be mental. If not, then the computers see them and take advantage.

Is it really plausible that shorts could coordinate attacks by using trading bots to probe stop loss orders to force people to sell their shares, thus decreasing the stock price? How would that even be allowed by SEC and not seen as illegal stock manipulation? By that same idea, you could say longs could coordinate attacks by using trading bots to probe buy stop orders to force people to buy shares, thus increase the stock price. :biggrin:

Noble Ninja: I believe that Curt's hypothesis is plausible, and even likely. Much of what happens on Wall Street right now are computer algorithm battles, or what I like to call "Bot bash" (robots beating each other up). A lot of big players also got trashed when shorting TSLA last year, so you can be sure that the bot masters will be out for revenge to recoup huge losses.

As for SEC and regulations, one of my "first principles" is that technology and innovation always outrun the government's ability to regulate. We see this in Tesla. The struggle over Tesla stores, early confusion over emissions tests for EVs during inspections, and questions over how to tax miles driven on a car that uses no gas are all examples of how previous rules fell way behind new tech. Stock price manipulation through bot action is something that government officials will struggle to understand and control.

I am a realist so I believe in dealing with situations as they are, which basically means refusing to play the bot game. I don't recommend short term investing in TSLA as the bot bashes cause too much volatility. Buy and hold for the long term: Generation 3/Model E and mainstream acceptance of EVs, 2019 to early 2020's. Have fun analyzing short term stuff, but never trade based on random swings.

 

[RationalOptimist]

Nice indication of the demand for model S in China. Someone thinks there's immediate demand for 100 convertibles costing maybe $50k more than the already expensive model S.
100 Tesla Model S hatchbacks to get NCE convertible conversions - Autoblog

And the company doing the conversions wants to order 5k more potentially. I guess if you can drive far enough away from the smog, who wouldn't want the top down?

 

[gudny]

Some good news on a China news website. Until April 14, the order of Model S has breached 5000 in China, mainly from second, third tier cities (cities apart from GuangZhou, Beijing and Shanghai). People travel far to Beijing and Shanghai to order Tesla, as you can see how enthusiastic people is. Also, Tesla appointed BiXuan Wu as Chinese regional head, who used to be the executive director in Apple. She and her team are expected to deliver good results for TESLA sales in China region.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Price drop situation reminds me of situation a year or more ago. I suspect going down on no further news of gf and doubt in china demand. I remember back then doubt that reservations would turn into sales remember then no supercharger sites on east coast then as well. Same doubts about china now. No superchargers yet and will reservations go to sales. I really don't know what the market would expect of gf yet either. Same risks and potential benefit. Every time I think large surprises over realize more to come

 

[BB_up]

Thanks gudny. Can you share the link to the news?

Some good news on a China news website. Until April 14, the order of Model S has breached 5000 in China, mainly from second, third tier cities (cities apart from GuangZhou, Beijing and Shanghai). People travel far to Beijing and Shanghai to order Tesla, as you can see how enthusiastic people is. Also, Tesla appointed BiXuan Wu as Chinese regional head, who used to be the executive director in Apple. She and her team are expected to deliver good results for TESLA sales in China region.

 

[Benz]

Some good news on a China news website. Until April 14, the order of Model S has breached 5000 in China, mainly from second, third tier cities (cities apart from GuangZhou, Beijing and Shanghai). People travel far to Beijing and Shanghai to order Tesla, as you can see how enthusiastic people is. Also, Tesla appointed BiXuan Wu as Chinese regional head, who used to be the executive director in Apple. She and her team are expected to deliver good results for TESLA sales in China region.

That's great news.

Would you please share the link to that website with us? Thanks

 

[pGo]

Here is some news I found:

http://news.mydrivers.com/1/300/300715.htm

It mentions 5000 cars ordering however, it mentions about some lawsuit. Any chinese speakers want to clarify a few things here?

 

[aznt1217]

Here is some news I found:

http://news.mydrivers.com/1/300/300715.htm

It mentions 5000 cars ordering however, it mentions about some lawsuit. Any chinese speakers want to clarify a few things here?

Probably poor news aggregation. It goes back to the 100 convertibles by NCE. They ordered 100 for the conversion to a convertible, but inquired with Tesla about 5,000 units.

 

[Twiddler]

*Sigh* another rally that TSLA is not participating in. Was nice to be a Teslanaire, if only for a couple of months

 

[AlMc]

*Sigh* another rally that TSLA is not participating in. Was nice to be a Teslanaire, if only for a couple of months

Know that euphoric feeling and subsequent dejection.

 

[pGo]

I read the comments section and feel that some groups in China is complaining that Tesla is not going to release cars in order of reservation. To them, its creating bad publicity in China. I would love to have feedback from people who understand Chinese on this. Thanks.

 

[bsd]

Know that euphoric feeling and subsequent dejection.

I wish I could know that feeling

 

[gudny]

Probably poor news aggregation. It goes back to the 100 convertibles by NCE. They ordered 100 for the conversion to a convertible, but inquired with Tesla about 5,000 units.

This is news I read on my mobile device, not sure how to get the link.

The news does sounds quite negative, but I think it wont hurt much. Given that only 23 out of 5000 file the lawsuit and of course such things can be resolved quickly.

Some technical analysis posted on tradingview, saying that TSLA can drop to $185ish and might consolidate there. If the prediction is correct, the current price (192) is not too far from it.

 

[BB_up]

Here is some news I found:

http://news.mydrivers.com/1/300/300715.htm

It mentions 5000 cars ordering however, it mentions about some lawsuit. Any chinese speakers want to clarify a few things here?

Take it easy. Yes, those customers filed a suit on Tesla for arranging the order of delivery before letting them know, they take the action as commercial fraud.
Veronica Wu declined the validity of the suit, since no commitment has ever offered on delivery order.

No worry.

 

[Noble Ninja]

Noble Ninja: I believe that Curt's hypothesis is plausible, and even likely. Much of what happens on Wall Street right now are computer algorithm battles, or what I like to call "Bot bash" (robots beating each other up). A lot of big players also got trashed when shorting TSLA last year, so you can be sure that the bot masters will be out for revenge to recoup huge losses.

As for SEC and regulations, one of my "first principles" is that technology and innovation always outrun the government's ability to regulate. We see this in Tesla. The struggle over Tesla stores, early confusion over emissions tests for EVs during inspections, and questions over how to tax miles driven on a car that uses no gas are all examples of how previous rules fell way behind new tech. Stock price manipulation through bot action is something that government officials will struggle to understand and control.

I am a realist so I believe in dealing with situations as they are, which basically means refusing to play the bot game. I don't recommend short term investing in TSLA as the bot bashes cause too much volatility. Buy and hold for the long term: Generation 3/Model E and mainstream acceptance of EVs, 2019 to early 2020's. Have fun analyzing short term stuff, but never trade based on random swings.

Bot bash, haha good one. I'm definitely holding for the long term (~ 2018) but considering we're currently sitting on levels the same as two months ago is disappointing, especially after hitting $265. I think I'll have to change my strategy a bit. Keep my core long-term shares but have a few more short-term shares to buy/sell to make small profits along the way (some people do this with options but I find it beyond my risk tolerance).

NobleNinja, all stocks are manipulated by programmed trading, TSLA is especially vulnerable to it.
There are certainly short attacks, you witnessing one right now.

There's certainly no bad news on tesla today, and no real reason for today's drop, other than heavy handed manipulation by trading bots and their masters.

I hear ya, and it doesn't help that the market is being crushed this past week so far. Good buying opportunit now, or wait it out? I don't see signs of recovery any time soon.

 

[InTheShadows]

We have to be near the bottom, my gut just said to sell all our options.

 

[Citizen-T]

I got impatient and bought here at $186.75. I'm done buying shares now. I'll buy short-term calls if this gets any worse.

 

[robbie380]

The seller is still sitting on this stock pretty hard. Feels like it's going to have to have a blow out before it bottoms. Wait and see. We need to get above this guy at 187.50. A hold of 188 would be good.