Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[c041v]

Well it looks like Elon's spaceX speech is causing tsla to take off like a rocket. . Here's hoping it doesn't splash down.

It appears to be making a soft landing

Thanks JTE for the charts. I want to believe FluxCap, but I just really don't know what to do. I might have to stay home for this one. A beat would hopefully breath some life into my calls, larger macro conditions or a miss can't really do any more damage at this point, and buying a ton of puts only increases exposure - in light of a lot of positive news. As for momo's tracking down, only AAPL is up, but it is firmly buoyed by a solid balance sheet with big profits. TSLA may well be punished for not being able to produce a massive profit, which I certainly don't agree with.

Good call on Elon's deepening pockets. While I can't see Tesla ever needing money, he could certainly apply acceleration to specific efforts were there a significant benefit to doing so. Will be interesting to see if anything comes of the ULA protest. Those were some fightin' words regarding the Russian engines.

 

[justthateasy]

Well....I did ask for one of your charts/tech analysis but I was hoping for something more positive,
thanks for the info. I do hope you are wrong but that would be the exception to the rule

Believe me, this is one of those times that I really hope that I'm wrong.

Thanks for the chart, JTE. I don't think the market has priced in several important positive catalysts yet, especially the huge new subsidies in China and super-strong demand. The downtrend you show has more to do with the overall market malaise of late and less to do with Tesla specifically, which should correct upwards as we move towards earnings on May 7th. There are just too many buyers (myself included) below $200 for it to stay there long unless we are in a total market meltdown. I predict $215+ going into earnings and $245+ after.

These positive catalysts may or may not be price in but every time we get one, it's not enough to reverse TSLA's downward trend and actually have it go against the market like we've seen it do in the past.

Well in the middle of today's market meltdown and we're seeing TSLA bouncing around 200. It's barely holding 198-199 and I'm guessing we'll see it finish on new intraday lows.

I like your optimism about earnings and really want to share that optimism with you but trends seem to be saying otherwise. Actually, when I looked at my chart last night, I thought we would start that pre-earnings run today and see a break out above 215 then see the 220s next week.

 

[Cankooo1]

I disagree that we are in the downtrend channel !
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1NSHqraj/

 

[justthateasy]

It appears to be making a soft landing

Thanks JTE for the charts. I want to believe FluxCap, but I just really don't know what to do. I might have to stay home for this one. A beat would hopefully breath some life into my calls, larger macro conditions or a miss can't really do any more damage at this point, and buying a ton of puts only increases exposure - in light of a lot of positive news. As for momo's tracking down, only AAPL is up, but it is firmly buoyed by a solid balance sheet with big profits. TSLA may well be punished for not being able to produce a massive profit, which I certainly don't agree with.

Good call on Elon's deepening pockets. While I can't see Tesla ever needing money, he could certainly apply acceleration to specific efforts were there a significant benefit to doing so. Will be interesting to see if anything comes of the ULA protest. Those were some fightin' words regarding the Russian engines.

I don't know what to do either. When I first saw how TSLA was moving downward today, I almost made the a knee-jerk move of liquidating. In hindsight, I really wish I did it when it hit the intraday high after the market opened. After putting more ware on my stress balls and calming down a bit, I ultimately decided to wait it out and see what happens on Monday. But every time I've made this "see what happens on the next day" move the last two months, it's done nothing but cost me more of my profits. I'm thinking I might just sell the next time we get a relief rally but I fear a relief rally will only bring TSLA back to the price it's at now, meaning we'll see it move even lower (say 185) then a relief rally back up to where it is not (199).

 

[FluxCap]

Right now, but for the situation in Ukraine, I would be much more positive overall. As it is, I'm cautiously optimistic, because there has just been so much negative pressure thrown at Tesla Motors without reason, while the company's cashflow, revenues, profits and balance sheet remain as fundamentally awesome as ever. This company currently makes the best car in the world according to many independent observers and is destined to make even more, and still the "falling demand" myth that will be firmly debunked on the earnings call has had an outsized effect on the stock price of late. To me, this means there is pent up price movement waiting to spring upwards.

Of course, I could be completely wrong and could be apologizing to my wife for losing a pile instead of taking her to the beach come May 8th.

We are all going to be exposed to the Ukraine situation for the foreseeable future, as long as the market uses it as another excuse to sell off.

I've posted an update in my Macroeconomic thread with an interesting article on next week's important economic calendar, if anyone's interested.

 

[AlMc]

Not sure the most appropriate place to post this but great interview today with EM: http://www.c-span.org/video/?319035-4/elon-musk-tesla-spacex

 

[ggies07]

Thanks!

 

[AlMc]

Short interest essentially unchanged at 25 million as of April 15, 2014

 

[InTheShadows]

It appears to be making a soft landing

Thanks JTE for the charts. I want to believe FluxCap, but I just really don't know what to do. I might have to stay home for this one. A beat would hopefully breath some life into my calls, larger macro conditions or a miss can't really do any more damage at this point, and buying a ton of puts only increases exposure - in light of a lot of positive news. As for momo's tracking down, only AAPL is up, but it is firmly buoyed by a solid balance sheet with big profits. TSLA may well be punished for not being able to produce a massive profit, which I certainly don't agree with.

Good call on Elon's deepening pockets. While I can't see Tesla ever needing money, he could certainly apply acceleration to specific efforts were there a significant benefit to doing so. Will be interesting to see if anything comes of the ULA protest. Those were some fightin' words regarding the Russian engines.

Yea I was thinking about doing my first straddle or strangle or which ever it is called. The one that looks for a big move, just don't know which way it's going.

 

[c041v]

Yea I was thinking about doing my first straddle or strangle or which ever it is called. The one that looks for a big move, just don't know which way it's going.

I'm thinking about this as well. I need to read up on the strategy as I'm not totally sure what range I'd want to cover/strikes, etc. Will move any further discussion over to the options threads to keep the mods happy.

edit: Straddle is the droid you're looking for.

 

[Curt Renz]

Live webcast, Musk SpeceX 'major announcement'

Watch Live: Elon Musk Makes SpaceX Announcement - NBC News

There were two announcements: a relatively successful soft landing on water, and a suit against the government for not allowing competitive bidding for military satellite launches.

Meanwhile, I've created a petition to the White House regarding the bidding for rocket contracts. Details are in the SpaceX forum of this message board: White House Petition Requesting Competitive Bidding for Military Satellite Launches

If you want to reply, please do so in that other thread.

 

[Papafox]

I disagree that we are in the downtrend channel !
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1NSHqraj/

Cankooo1,
Thanks for the Chart! Your graphic indicates we're about ready to break this downslope from one of our overly-optimistic peaks we've been in and resume a climb up the slope now that we've re-entered the primary channel. I hope you're right! I think Flux has a valid point about the possibility of Ukraine to influence the market (and TSLA) in the short term, but lacking a big negative move in Ukraine there's a good chance we'll hear enough positive news at the earnings report to put us on track with your chart or to enter one of the optimistic peaks above the channel. What we're hearing from China indicates that good news is coming. Let's see what happens. I look forward to projecting your chart out many months and then revisiting it half a year to a year from now.

Your chart shows one specific act of exuberance by investors that led to a reestablishment of your primary upward-moving channel and your chart shows that we are now encountering a similar instance when a resume of the upward sloping channel or another act of exuberance is in the cards. If we do indeed break the downslope from the exuberance next week and trend upward again, then your chart gains value. If we don't we might assume that 1) news or macro forces interfered with this technical trend or 2) one instance of a peak above your upslope was not matched by a second instance and the chart is less valuable. Until we see what happens in the coming week, it'd be hard to bet on this chart. If your chart does predict a reversal to an upward trend in TSLA stock price, though, the chart certainly gains credibility. Unfortunately, since the ER is approaching, that event by itself will likely overshadow the technicals involved.

 

[Kdaddy]

Straddle?

I'm thinking about this as well. I need to read up on the strategy as I'm not totally sure what range I'd want to cover/strikes, etc. Will move any further discussion over to the options threads to keep the mods happy.

edit: Straddle is the droid you're looking for.

LOL. I am in kind of the same boat. I am new to this board, but am a huge Teslamaniac. In any event, I bought a bunch of $210 May 9 Calls and am starting to furrow my sweaty brow in concern after today's market shenanigans, seeing as this is also the first time I have bought short-term Calls in hopes of a great Earnings Call.

Question/Confirmation for me: If you find yourself in the deep red on Calls, one good remedy is to offset this with countervailing PUTS. So either way, you break even, at least in theory. Is this correct?

 

[pz1975]

One thing I would recommend is buying calls for the week after earnings as sometimes a potential spike is delayed or at least you save some time decay by deferring the expiration date by 1 week. As you get close to the ER date, then buying earnings week makes more sense. I have no earnings plays yet as I am afraid that next week may trend downwards.

 

[c041v]

To keep in line with the theme of this thread, the next two weeks could go in any direction, and no body can truly say which. I'd love to see us revisit the 215 range pre-earnings and hit Flux's 245 post-ER prediction, but I feel that Justthateasy has the right of it (no matter how much he doesn't want to be) the Ukraine thing amongst other factors is casting a black cloud over this coming ER, and I just can't help but think that stellar results might not be enough.

Kdaddy - there's a vast number of people better qualified on here to answer your question, but if it were me; The damage is done to my calls. None of them expire in the immediate future, but 30% of them do in June, which won't catch the next ER, and I've pretty much kissed them goodbye at this point. It would take a tremendous jump in the stock price to break even. My longer term calls have a better chance at riding out the storm, but even they aren't safe. This is the risk one rakes in playing this game. Buying Puts, as I had mentioned earlier, only increases my overall exposure and forces me to take a more active role in making trades as the timing is a great deal more important when playing both sides. Honestly, TSLA ER's need to become less stressful for me, my bets have been made long ago. If they kill it - Great. If not, meh. I'm not going to lead myself to the slaughterhouse.

My only conciliation is that all of my options were rolled up from huge gains in Feb, so I'm basically break-even for the year, in a tax free account. Hear that? It's the world's smallest violin playing just for me.

 

[Julian Cox]

One thing I would recommend is buying calls for the week after earnings as sometimes a potential spike is delayed or at least you save some time decay by deferring the expiration date by 1 week. As you get close to the ER date, then buying earnings week makes more sense. I have no earnings plays yet as I am afraid that next week may trend downwards.

All I know is that May 9 is post earnings and bumping along the $199~$201 level is what happens in the absence of material updates.

The reason for the lack of materiall updates is the thing the market is waiting for is confidential - updates on the Gigafactory.

 

[Kdaddy]

I certainly hope we get some great news. Seeing all that red bummed me out Friday! I chatted with another investor on another site who thinks Elon Musk's brilliant announcement of a "race" between two simultaneous factory constructions to ensure timely completion will eventually morph into 2 factories to support expected Model E demand (if that is not the intent all along!). The support for this position is that JB Straubel gave a speech at Stanford in September and posted a slide showing 700,000 units for 2019. I am a novice investor and have no technical analysis skills to speak of, so take this for a grain of salt, but I looked at the 2 weeks prior to the last 4 Earnings Calls and aside from the Nov 13 anomaly due the fires, there was a decent run-up into Earnings each time. As such, I hope to at least have the option to get off the train as May 7 approaches. I also noted that Tesla tends to under-forecast their numbers by about 500-600 cars per quarter as a built-in catalyst (hopefully).

All I know is that May 9 is post earnings and bumping along the $199~$201 level is what happens in the absence of material updates.

The reason for the lack of materiall updates is the thing the market is waiting for is confidential - updates on the Gigafactory.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

"US-based electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors has seen production capacity fall far short of its fast growing global demand, and a feasible solution is to set up production lines in China, a very important market for Tesla, according to Taiwan-based supply chain makers, adding that Tesla currently turns out about 1,000 electric vehicles a week.

If Tesla sets up production lines in China, most of Tesla's existing Taiwan-based component suppliers are willing to set up factories there to jointly tap the China market, the sources indicated.

The Foxconn Group, which has member companies that are Tesla's component suppliers, is interested in forming an electric vehicle ecosystem mainly made up of Taiwan-based makers, the sources said. Foxconn Group president Terry Guo met with Tesla CEO Elon Musk in Beijing, northern China, recently. Foxconn is likely to recommend that Tesla sets up production lines at one or more of Foxconn's production bases in China, the sources indicated."

Tesla seeing short production capacity, say Taiwan makers

I think this was published Friday evening. This article explicitly says Tesla is producing 1000 vehicles per week. I think the other articles/rumors out of China mentioned some suppliers were seeing demand for about 1000 Model S per week, but didn't say 1000 vehicles were being produced per week.

 

[dmunjal]

There seems to be a lot of discussion about a head and shoulders top forming in the Nasdaq.

Did the Nasdaq Just Start a Prolonged Head-and Shoulder Decline? - Yahoo Finance

Any comments on this?

 

[30seconds]

"US-based electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors has seen production capacity fall far short of its fast growing global demand, and a feasible solution is to set up production lines in China, a very important market for Tesla, according to Taiwan-based supply chain makers, adding that Tesla currently turns out about 1,000 electric vehicles a week.

If Tesla sets up production lines in China, most of Tesla's existing Taiwan-based component suppliers are willing to set up factories there to jointly tap the China market, the sources indicated.

The Foxconn Group, which has member companies that are Tesla's component suppliers, is interested in forming an electric vehicle ecosystem mainly made up of Taiwan-based makers, the sources said. Foxconn Group president Terry Guo met with Tesla CEO Elon Musk in Beijing, northern China, recently. Foxconn is likely to recommend that Tesla sets up production lines at one or more of Foxconn's production bases in China, the sources indicated."

Tesla seeing short production capacity, say Taiwan makers

I think this was published Friday evening. This article explicitly says Tesla is producing 1000 vehicles per week. I think the other articles/rumors out of China mentioned some suppliers were seeing demand for about 1000 Model S per week, but didn't say 1000 vehicles were being produced per week.

I think production constraint is almost 100% related to battery supply. Rapidly setting up an automotive assembly factory isn't going to help