not to mention Apple-
and they are now content producers competing against their own clients-
Solar in the same boat- dumping of tech means all are hit
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
not to mention Apple-
and they are now content producers competing against their own clients-
Solar in the same boat- dumping of tech means all are hit
A handful of powerful men in oil, gas, big media and investment banks concocted a made-up story about stocks being overvalued and that a correction is due, and paid a lot of people a lot of money to relentlessly pump this story. Putin was the spark they needed to push their agenda into overdrive. When they have made enough money on their puts and decide to turn the market around (because interest is still near zero and there is nowhere else to put investment dollars), they will buy everything for pennies on the dollar and begin the drumbeat of "stocks are undervalued, bargains to be had, get in while you can" and pump things up again. Such is our lot to be left with the table scraps of the oligarchies of this planet.
It remains my hope that Tesla and TSLA prove the exception to this rule over the long haul. TSLA is actually a safety stock on a 5-year horizon, when XOM and BP and TM and F will be closer to extinction -- or we all will be.
We should never be under any illusion that the powers of the world will watch their power erode without fighting, and fighting dirty.
Hopefully, we have the stomach to endure this fight and win.
It remains my hope that Tesla and TSLA prove the exception to this rule over the long haul. TSLA is actually a safety stock on a 5-year horizon, when XOM and BP and TM and F will be closer to extinction -- or we all will be.
We should never be under any illusion that the powers of the world will watch their power erode without fighting, and fighting dirty.
Hopefully, we have the stomach to endure this fight and win.
Exactly. Nothing but good news and positive catalysts coming out since Q4 ER and nothing but punishment since the 265 all time highs. It makes absolutely no sense for TSLA to sell off the entire time since then.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Guys, let's be serious for a second. The run to $265 was a short squeeze, TSLA didn't earn that price. The fall from $265 to $220 was not only sensible, it was inevitable. I think that TSLA between $200 and $220 given the current environment is entirely reasonable. Below $200 is a buying opportunity. We'll see $265 again, but we are going to have to earn it this time.
Rifleman
Now owns 2 Model S's!!!
agree completely- $260 included massive conjecture on GigaFactory entering large new markets etc. (only a portion of even that was validated). I trimmed up there expecting a pullback to about $230. Below that is general risk off market and a pending challenge ER to the valuation-growth. Once passed this ER we'll start the earned climb back. I think generally this is also now true for the market adjustment away from high-valuation growth to value stocks. This is actually good for TSLA (and Solar) because they will represent actual, not perceived growth and will earn it. Growth investment dollars will be hungry for that going forward.
In a slight diversionary note, it looks like Google is making more progress with their autonomous driving cars, which we all know Elon is working on for our Model E's. 
I wonder what TSLA's share price will look like after the first quarter of a million autopilot-enabled, $35k, 200-mile range Model E's have been sold?
I wonder what TSLA's share price will look like after the first quarter of a million autopilot-enabled, $35k, 200-mile range Model E's have been sold?
It is helpful to review the weekly chart:
You can see we just got over extended, went above the bollinger band and now settling down finding support at the 20 week moving average. None of that helped me predict we would go here, but it helps reassure there is no bottom dropping out.
I have sort of gone into long-term zen mode.
How bout this? As much as we hate it when the shorts says Tesla has a demand problem in the US, as far as I can tell the demand is Not increasing much (or any) at all. Early last year I would have thought demand in the US would be going up exponentially this year. ITS NOT!
i know, I know, we are production constrained, we have a 2 month waiting list. Why don't we have 3-4 mo waiting list? Whenever I visit a show room, which is fairly often, the sales people give me the impression sales have slowed and they are eagerly waiting for Model X to get the sales up.
Citizen-T
Active Member
Add the 200-day moving average to that chart if you want to see how much worse this could get.
In the absence of news, TSLA will trade with the other momentum stocks. So far, that's been true. We are seeing a correction phase with these stocks. This will turn around.
The thing to really worry about is what happened to FB. They had great earnings and still went down. That would imply a wholesale rotation out of momentum and growth stocks.
My investment thesis hasn't changed.
1.Gigafactory (especially partner developments)
2. China expansion
3. Right-hand drive expansion
I do not think we are at the onset of a recession, because of this I do not think the economy has fundamentally changed. This market correction may turn out to be very healthy for Tesla's next leg up.
Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.
Warren Buffet
1.Gigafactory (especially partner developments)
2. China expansion
3. Right-hand drive expansion
I do not think we are at the onset of a recession, because of this I do not think the economy has fundamentally changed. This market correction may turn out to be very healthy for Tesla's next leg up.
Unless you can watch your stock holding decline by 50% without becoming panic-stricken, you should not be in the stock market.
Warren Buffet
Gravity, I see Tesla working first to pick the low-hanging fruit and then coming back later for the harder work. The low-hanging fruit right now is in countries with pent-up demand for Model S but no previous ability to buy. China is such a place right now, and the development of a right-hand drive frees up cars for other markets such as UK, Australia, and Japan. US sales of Model S look less robust than you would normally like to see for several reasons including the approaching release of Model X, which is already taking away some Model S sales. Remember that Model X will be the newest Tesla and the one that raises the most eyebrows next year. Meanwhile, the US supercharger network keeps growing, and as it grows the practicality of owning any type of Tesla grows. Europe may be a better location for supercharger saturation before the US because of population density. While Tesla is restrained by battery supply, it makes sense for Tesla to branch out into other markets and set up the infrastructure for models that will follow. Should Tesla become demand-limited at some point, it can advertise and work harder on the sales, but right now there is no need for such behavior. When there is advertising, it will enhance the word-of-mouth selling that Tesla owners are doing right now.
To a large extent, the purpose of Model S and Model X is to take us profitably to Model E. While there are finite limits to the number of cars you can sell in the $70K to $110K range, the number of sales in the $35K to $45K range is hugely larger. Even if the growth rate of Model S sales in the US has momentarily flattened out, and I am not sure that it has, Model S and Model X will take Tesla where it needs to go to enable Model E. Remember that the US is full of people who understand BMW and Mercedes cars, but a large percentage of high-end buyers have never looked closely at a Tesla. I believe I sold a Tesla to a high-end buyer this weekend, who drives a Lexus SUV. He has heard of Tesla but had never sat in one. Now he has and he wants a Model X. I'm thinking that fully half of potential Model S buyers in the US are holding out for Model X now. That issue alone will greatly affect Model S sales in the US.
Many won't for a while I suspect, which means if you are bold and decide to conclude that the ER will be good in this respect, you can profit from this information arbitrage.
The problem this week is that any bets are bets against Putin's actions, which is just so unpleasant and risky. So be careful.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Short term markets are like quantum physics: chaos and probability, not rationality!
I wonder when general market participants will realize that Putin behaving badly is actually a point in Tesla's favor. The sooner energy and transport grids are made independent of oil, the sooner Russia's energy trump card goes away.
Papafox my sentiments are much like yours. However my point was that we should Not be surprised that the stock price has dropped 65 points since it's high. Tesla is a volatile stock based on high expectations for its future. If investors sense any kind of drop or flatness in demand the stock is expected to drop.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked