Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Derek Vinyard]

take care, these are the cumulative numbers. its 16 in April...

you are right! the Swiss numbers are indeed ongoing cumulative registrations; absolutely stupid IMHO.
Have sent an email to Auto-Schweiz but didn't get a response yet. Thanks to the sales person at TM store here in Zurich I got the confiramtion from.

What he also told me is that so far more then 500 MS have been sold in Switzerland (many of them yet to be delivered) and that demand is strong.

 

[mitch672]

Bears getting restless again, been a while, and they are getting worried... New bear article on seeking mediocrity, tesla is still overvalued blah blah blah. Change your tune, we've heard this one before.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note: 21 posts discussing the FTC's comments on direct-dealer models have been moved to FTC on direct-sales model. A few posts complaining about their presence are in snippiness.

 

[pz1975]

Can anyone with technicals knowledge comment on 200 being a resistance/support line? On the recent downturn it seemed to offer support and now it seems to be causing resistance. Twice the stock has gone close to 200 only to drop back. WHEN (not if) it eventually crosses 200 and stays there, I think it will give support again. I suppose 200 is purely a psychological number and doesn't represent any kind of statistical level.

 

[dmunjal]

Can anyone with technicals knowledge comment on 200 being a resistance/support line? On the recent downturn it seemed to offer support and now it seems to be causing resistance. Twice the stock has gone close to 200 only to drop back. WHEN (not if) it eventually crosses 200 and stays there, I think it will give support again. I suppose 200 is purely a psychological number and doesn't represent any kind of statistical level.

Couldn't have said it any better. That's exactly what is going on. Sometimes the DMA acts as resistance/support but so do round numbers. Definitely psychological.

We'll break through it on the third try or fail completely.

 

[Noble Ninja]

Couldn't have said it any better. That's exactly what is going on. Sometimes the DMA acts as resistance/support but so do round numbers. Definitely psychological.

We'll break through it on the third try or fail completely.

The funny thing about this psychological barrier is that the more people who follow it, the more the stock is affected by it and the more additional people who start following it too. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Until I heard about this concept of resistance/support around whole numbers (like 200), I couldn't understand situations like the current one (touching 199 but not going over 200 with no news or fundamental change in business).

 

[dmunjal]

The funny thing about this psychological barrier is that the more people who follow it, the more the stock is affected by it and the more additional people who start following it too. Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Until I heard about this concept of resistance/support around whole numbers (like 200), I couldn't understand situations like the current one (touching 199 but not going over 200 with no news or fundamental change in business).

It gets worse. Everyone knows that 200 is resistance so they put in their orders just below it so you get the behavior that the high is 199.

We'll eventually exhaust sellers or buyers and we'll go one direction or another.

Elon Musk was famous for tweeting out at these critical points to push the stock over in the past. We could use another one right about now.

 

[CaptainKirk]

It gets worse. Everyone knows that 200 is resistance so they put in their orders just below it so you get the behavior that the high is 199.

We'll eventually exhaust sellers or buyers and we'll go one direction or another.

Elon Musk was famous for tweeting out at these critical points to push the stock over in the past. We could use another one right about now.

So doesn't that mean in theory that a retail investor could set a buy order to limit price at > $200 when it's near resistance to push the stock over? I also suppose though the big boys would push the stock back to below $200 very shortly because the buyers have been exhausted like you said?

 

[dmunjal]

So doesn't that mean in theory that a retail investor could set a buy order to limit price at > $200 when it's near resistance to push the stock over? I also suppose though the big boys would push the stock back to below $200 very shortly because the buyers have been exhausted like you said?

No because putting in a limit price over $200 still requires someone on the other end of the trade to buy at that price. If there are no buy orders at that price, the order will go unfilled.

 

[dmunjal]

Fed minutes releasing at 11am Pacific could have an impact on the market, the Nasdaq, and TSLA. Seems the market is expecting good news from the Fed.

 

[Cwin]

Fed minutes releasing at 11am Pacific could have an impact on the market, the Nasdaq, and TSLA. Seems the market is expecting good news from the Fed.

I'm waiting for this news as well before I do anything with my puts.

 

[uselesslogin]

I would think Q3 being sold out would be a fairly large positive catalyst. I would think it would be the type of thing Elon might tweet but then maybe he raised enough capital and isn't worried about the stock anymore. I think with late September US delivery estimates it probably is already sold out since I'm sure new China orders will end up being Q4 deliveries and they would want to delivery some number of US cars in September. I may be completely wrong but the move from September to late September is interesting. If it moves to October in the next 2 weeks that will be even more interesting.

 

[dmunjal]

I'm waiting for this news as well before I do anything with my puts.

Nasdaq is already up today. Good news could send it higher and maybe enough to push TSLA over 200. Are you buying or selling puts? I've got some calls expiring in a month that I want to sell. If the news is bad, I might sell some puts.

 

[Cwin]

Nasdaq is already up today. Good news could send it higher and maybe enough to push TSLA over 200. Are you buying or selling puts? I've got some calls expiring in a month that I want to sell. If the news is bad, I might sell some puts.

I grabbed some puts last night not expecting today's rebound to be so vigorous. I'm keeping a hold of them until after today's news.

 

[Norbert]

Nasdaq is already up today. Good news could send it higher and maybe enough to push TSLA over 200. Are you buying or selling puts? I've got some calls expiring in a month that I want to sell. If the news is bad, I might sell some puts.

I'd expect Elon to keep some good news for the annual shareholder meeting June 3rd. Might be a good time to get ready for that. Yes, TSLA seems ready to go past 200 again.

 

[uselesslogin]

I'd expect Elon to keep some good news for the annual shareholder meeting June 3rd. Might be a good time to get ready for that. Yes, TSLA seems ready to go past 200 again.

Yes that is very true - he would probably wait rather than tweet.

 

[Norbert]

Buyers eating into the 199.0 short's barrier... getting smaller, 16k to go...

 

[eepic]

Yes that is very true - he would probably wait rather than tweet.

Semi-related but for the days leading up to it he's probably also tied up with the SpaceX reveal of the Dragon mk. II spaceship on May 29, so Tesla side may be quiet.

 

[MikeC]

Buyers eating into the 199.0 short's barrier... getting smaller, 16k to go...

Got that one. Next stop: 200.

 

[AlMc]

Got that one. Next stop: 200.

I will be quite surprised, but happy, if we break through and hold $200+. The first break of $200 took several days of trying.