Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Cattledog]

Who'd have known we'd have John Broder to thank for all this.

 

[chickensevil]

Of course. Before the spring of 2013, TSLA wasn't on anyone's map. I'm talking about recent history.

No, I get that, but going back that far gives a true 0-100% baseline... we have maintained about a 50% interest level in TSLA since the explosion, and we are on an incline right now back toward the 100% mark currently at 73%. Based on the other 4 peaks we can safely say we are almost back into a hype phase given that the lowest the hype train ever went to was 75%. If will only take just a little more search volume to hit the hype.

The scale of this chart is on a monthly level, so September is already rocking at 73% and we are only just hitting the 9th... so we still have another 21 days of searching to raise that value up higher so it is VERY likely we will break through to a new high for search interest this month.

It is certainly useful data, so I do thank you for pointing it out, but I don't think you are reading the chart correctly... or I am not reading it correctly... I could be wrong...

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And "Tesla" as a search term also shows a continued trend of growth in people caring about it. We are presently just shy (by 1 point... again... partial data... I think we will blow it out of the water when Sep is finished) of the high that was set for "Tesla" back when the hyperloop hit the news. So the hype surround "Tesla" is about to surpass that mark (Granted this doesn't make and added distinction in Tesla the company and Tesla the person... but when you add in "Nikola Tesla" in there you get a nice shallow incline of a baseline on the surrounding search interest of the man vs the company. The only spike in the red caused by the man was in July 2009 which I believe was caused by Google making their logo a Tesla related logo and celebrated Tesla's birthday.

 

[jhm]

Time for fun with stats. I took 4-week gains in Tesla's stock price and regressed them on the log of Google Interest. The 4-week returns are timed such that the start date is during the week Google interest is measured and the end date is 4 weeks out from start. This is predictive timing. I measure return as the difference in log closing price (dlog). Over the most recent 52 weeks (starting 8/16/2013), there is a negative correlation between log interest and return, with an R-squared of 9.37% and slope -0.1362. Thus, a 1% increase in interest reduces the expected 4-week return by about 14 basis points. Interest level under 35 has the best performance.
View attachment TSLA Interest.pdf

 

[jhm]

The three spikes in early trading look rather manufactured too me. Are any longs really that eager to drive up the price? It does not seem like shorts covering in a panic either. Does anyone else share my suspicion?

 

[FluxCap]

Time for fun with stats. I took 4-week gains in Tesla's stock price and regressed them on the log of Google Interest. The 4-week returns are timed such that the start date is during the week Google interest is measured and the end date is 4 weeks out from start. This is predictive timing. I measure return as the difference in log closing price (dlog). Over the most recent 52 weeks (starting 8/16/2013), there is a negative correlation between log interest and return, with an R-squared of 9.37% and slope -0.1362. Thus, a 1% increase in interest reduces the expected 4-week return by about 14 basis points. Interest level under 35 has the best performance.
View attachment 58725

Sir, this is a spot of excellent statistical analysis. Though correlation certainly does not ensure causation here, I find this data fascinating.

Thank you for sharing.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Time for fun with stats. I took 4-week gains in Tesla's stock price and regressed them on the log of Google Interest. The 4-week returns are timed such that the start date is during the week Google interest is measured and the end date is 4 weeks out from start. This is predictive timing. I measure return as the difference in log closing price (dlog). Over the most recent 52 weeks (starting 8/16/2013), there is a negative correlation between log interest and return, with an R-squared of 9.37% and slope -0.1362. Thus, a 1% increase in interest reduces the expected 4-week return by about 14 basis points. Interest level under 35 has the best performance.
View attachment 58725

Big -Thank You- also from my side. Great stats. I mean, I wouldn't bet that the correlation between return (even 4-week) and Google interest ist negative.
As Mr Spock used to say:"Fascinating!"

 

[Causalien]

I wouldn't say manufactured. Probably someone looking at the same thing I did, hen Tesla Tuesday happened. I've been scratching my head on where the optimism is coming from since most of the big news that everyone is waiting for has been announced.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

I wouldn't say manufactured. Probably someone looking at the same thing I did, hen Tesla Tuesday happened. I've been scratching my head on where the optimism is coming from since most of the big news that everyone is waiting for has been announced.

today, Nevada lawmakers will host a "special legislative session" to discuss the $1.3B tax break package. If approved, only then the deal is officially done and dusted.
by the way, this session can last for days.

 

[chickensevil]

today, Nevada lawmakers will host a "special legislative session" to discuss the $1.3B tax break package. If approved, only then the deal is officially done and dusted.
by the way, this session can last for days.

It can but I don't think it will. There isn't a lot of opposition to this from what I can tell. The only people complaining seem to be the north Vegas district... From everything else I have been reading on it they have everyone on their side for this even the Nevada Franchised Auto Dealers Association... So unless we get a curve ball during the session we should be great.

 

[jhm]

Big -Thank You- also from my side. Great stats. I mean, I wouldn't bet that the correlation between return (even 4-week) and Google interest ist negative.
As Mr Spock used to say:"Fascinating!"

You're welcome. I would also point out that i looked at 2-week returns as well, but the R-squared is only about half. Often shorter term returns can be harder to predict than longer ones. Basically there is more signal than noise. But much longer returns suffer from limited impact. So the trick is to find a sweet spot in the middle.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

recent BBG article.

Nevada Bets $1.3 Billion on Tesla to Push Economy Beyond Gaming
2014-09-10 10:43:14.730 GMT


By James Nash
Sept. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Nevada casinos, the state’s largest
industry, took in $11.2 billion in the year that ended in July.
Now lawmakers must decide whether to wager as much as $1.3
billion on a project that could help wean the state from its
reliance on slot machines and roulette wheels.
Lawmakers are to begin meeting in a special session today
to consider tax write-offs for Tesla Motaketors Inc. to build
the world’s largest lithium-ion battery plant near Reno. The
incentives could be worth $700 million to $1.3 billion over 20
years, depending on how much Tesla spends on the so-called
gigafactory, according to state documents.
Manufacturing accounted for 4.1 percent of Nevada’s total
output in 2013, compared with 12.5 percent of the U.S. gross
domestic product. With 6,500 jobs, Tesla would bring $101.6
billion in economic activity to Nevada over 20 years, the state
demographer said in a report. That compares with a gross state
product of $132 billion last year.
[...]
Taxes, Credits

In exchange, the state would write off property and
business taxes for 10 years and sales taxes for 20 years. Tesla
would also receive tax credits of $12,500 per permanent, full-
time job, and of 5 percent for the first $1 billion in spending
on the plant and 2.8 percent for the next $2.5 billion in
spending.
[...]

The legislature’s approval is needed to formalize the
agreement. In making the announcement, Sandoval, a Republican
seeking a second term, was accompanied by Democratic leaders of
the state Assembly and Senate.
Bipartisan Support

Steve Hill, director of Sandoval’s economic-development
office, said he expects the deal to pass with bipartisan
support. Assembly Speaker Marilyn Kirkpatrick, a North Las Vegas
Democrat, also expressed optimism.
Nevada’s proposed tax breaks for Palo Alto, California-
based Tesla rank as the 12th-largest such deal in the U.S.,
according to the Washington-based nonprofit Good Jobs First,
which is critical of corporate tax breaks. Washington state
offered the largest package last year to Boeing Co. -- valued at
$8.7 billion -- to keep work on the new 777X jetliner in
Seattle.
Other companies may demand incentives to move to Nevada,
Hill said. “We would be open to that,” he said in an interview.
“We’ve been on a push to diversify our economy in conjunction
with gambling and mining.”
[...]

 

[BlueTan85]

Awful quiet around here.

 

[ibcs]

Awful quiet around here.

I think at 273.66 we were all holding our breath. Nice bounce off the low, but very little news today.

 

[chickensevil]

I think at 273.66 we were all holding our breath. Nice bounce off the low, but very little news today.

Well I personally wasn't too worried since there seems to be building support at the 275 level, and I think a lot of people are holding their breath on what is happening with the factory and Nevada today. Which is also what I have been trying to research as of late to get as much information as possible. The price is just going to do it's thing for now, since we are in a quiet period again as far as news.

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Also for what it's worth, we are pretty much just following (albeit in an exaggerated fashion) the overall market...

 

[Bipo]

TSLA seems to be too much sensitive to Nasdaq's movements... Not for the long fundamentals but for daily ups and downs.

 

[evme]

They are going to have a livestream for those interested:

LCB Calendar

 

[chickensevil]

They are going to have a livestream for those interested:

LCB Calendar

Thanks, I had been looking for that information. I appreciate the links. You know for them supposedly starting at 12PM (Local time) they are already 12 minutes late... sigh...

 

[eepic]

Live updates in this article

Inside the Capitol: Updates from the Tesla special session as they happen - Las Vegas Sun News

 

[MartinAustin]

They are going to have a livestream for those interested:

LCB Calendar

This is very cool to be able to watch the Nevada Legislature proceedings as they progress. I'm sitting at home on my living room sofa, peering into a Carson City government building where they're discussing the Gigafactory deal. Wa-hoo for technology!!! Picture and sound quality are good. Too bad the Assembly and the Senate are talking at the same time! Makes it hard to understand them simultaneously

Looks like TSLA had a last-minute gust of support and ended up above $280! Nice.

 

[jhm]

Hammer time?