This is details from the JP Morgan note that showed up in theBarron's blog:
We are more cautious on Tesla, however, with our Neutral rating balancing incremental news flow likely to track positive with valuation that appears stretched and execution and competitive risk that seems underappreciated…
Establish December 2015 price target at $190 and raise estimates slightly on a kinder view toward deliveries (our most optimistic yet, but for which we remain still below that implied by guidance). We establish a December 2015 price target of $190 (vs. our December 2014 price target of $170), with the price target primarily benefiting from the lesser discounting of both our terminal cash flows analysis which starts at our DCF end date of 2020 and our 2020-based multiples analysis (we already had 2016 estimates for Tesla; our estimates rise slightly on a stronger trend to deliveries). We forecast 18,250 deliveries in 4Q15 (comprised of 11,750 Model S’s and 6,500 Model X’s), annualizing to a run-rate of approximately 73,000, which is below Tesla’s indicated potential 100,000 run-rate at 4Q15-end. Furthermore, our total volume projection in 2020 is 303,500 (comprised of 60,000 Model S’s, 43,500 Model X’s, and 200,000 Model 3’s), below the 500,000 guidance implied by Tesla’s Gigafactory capacity plans. For our price target to rise to the stock’s current level would require inputting of 650,000 Model X’s into our model in 2020, presuming our other estimates regarding Model S and Model X volume and corresponding gross margin rates, for a total volume in 2020 of 753,500 units.
