Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[chickensevil]

Thanks chickenevil. I have been reading every comment on TMC Price Movement since September 2012, however seldom add my two cents worth. I very much enjoy reading contributors' comments, very entertaining and knowledgable. I stopped reading misc. reporting articles on Tesla many months ago as many were misinforming or lacked research and only serve the writer. The go-to place for the Tesla ecosystem are well covered here at TMC (and now Dave T's consolidated weekly report). Awesome everyone.

Would it make sense for Tesla to develop an auto driver assist program in-house? They should be able to use similar engineering developed by SpaceX for the Falcon (it's gotta be easier to keep a car in lane and protected from other objects). IMHO Tesla needs to differentiate its auto driver assist from other luxury manufacturers, not to simply purchase a 3rd party application off the rack. This would ensure Tesla is at the leading edge of development in this field, ahead of the pack.

No problem, even if discussions get heated at times this is the best internet message board I have ever been a part of as far as the way people treat each other

Tesla has stated that they are using 3rd party hardware but all the software is developed in house by Tesla. So any relationship with Mobileye would be on a hardware stance only.

- - - Updated - - -

Is that article about Simon Sproule true?... Is he leaving Tesla to join Aston?

Seems like it.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Thanks chickenevil. I have been reading every comment on TMC Price Movement since September 2012, however seldom add my two cents worth. I very much enjoy reading contributors' comments, very entertaining and knowledgable. I stopped reading misc. reporting articles on Tesla many months ago as many were misinforming or lacked research and only serve the writer. The go-to place for the Tesla ecosystem are well covered here at TMC (and now Dave T's consolidated weekly report). Awesome everyone

Careful led to downfall of GTAT investors. Listening to Corning CEO led me to conclude no sapphire to be in iphone6, other than camera lens. Reading contrarian board......you would have missed that

 

[bsd]

Not sure if I should share this, but I have a friend in Cali who was driving around santa monica who saw a camo'd Tesla with bird doors... if ya know what I mean....

I thought you meant in camouflage colouring, and winced.

 

[jhm]

Will Tesla be able to sell used Model S cars "directly" in Texas and other states? My impression is that the franchise laws only pertain to new car sales, not used. Anyone know about this? Best little used car store in Texas! Yeehaw!

 

[evme]

I am not going to say anything bad about Mobile Eye, but we need to remember that Panasonic plans to purchase 50% share of Ficosa. Now this might be more of long term then short term, but I doubt Panasonic would buy such a share if they did not have clients in advanced. There is of course Toyota too but this should be considered when looking at relationship between Mobile Eye and Tesla. Because personally I think the relationship of Tesla and Panasonic is far stronger.

Particularly, we need to understand if Mobile Eye relationship is tied down to quick European compliance or final solution.

 

[vgrinshpun]

In the wake of filing Form 8-K regarding the three agreements between TM and Panasonic (http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20141003/AC2ZA22FZZ2RM9Z222TQ2ZXRGBLPZZ22XI62/), Panasonic indicates that initial investment in the GF will be in hundreds of millions of dollars (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014...0FV20141007?feedType=RSS&feedName=usDollarRpt)

The three agreements cover:

• commercial terms and production planning process between Panasonic and Tesla and Tesla's preparation of the GF for Panasonic
• terms under which parties will set pricing for the cells to be supplied by Pana at the GF, and detailed provisions with respect to Panasonic's various investments in the manufacturing equipment for its GF operations
• terms to Panasonic's first investment in manufacturing equipment for its GF operations

Although these agreements does not seem to add anything as far as big picture is concerned to the TM Blog Post (Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory | Press Releases | Tesla Motors), they detail TM - Pana commitments on the GF. I am wondering if this will provide a good foundation for an additional institutional accumulation.

 

[jhm]

I am not going to say anything bad about Mobile Eye, but we need to remember that Panasonic plans to purchase 50% share of Ficosa. Now this might be more of long term then short term, but I doubt Panasonic would buy such a share if they did not have clients in advanced. There is of course Toyota too but this should be considered when looking at relationship between Mobile Eye and Tesla. Because personally I think the relationship of Tesla and Panasonic is far stronger.

Particularly, we need to understand if Mobile Eye relationship is tied down to quick European compliance or final solution.

I think you're right to keep our eye on Ficosa. Panasonic has wanted to sell more components to Tesla for along time. They want a bigger piece of the digital car than just the battery cells. So the deal could be: buy Ficosa, scale up production, sell to Tesla. If so, this also gives them a bigger motive to go in on the Gigafactory. Enable Tesla with cheap batteries, sell more Ficosa gear. So I'm wondering if Tesla should buy the other half of Ficosa and work on tight integration of technologies. One way or another, Tesla should cultivate the best digital car ecosystem.

 

[NigelM]

Is that article about Simon Sproule true?... Is he leaving Tesla to join Aston?

Yes. Not good news.

 

[evme]

I think you're right to keep our eye on Ficosa. Panasonic has wanted to sell more components to Tesla for along time. They want a bigger piece of the digital car than just the battery cells. So the deal could be: buy Ficosa, scale up production, sell to Tesla. If so, this also gives them a bigger motive to go in on the Gigafactory. Enable Tesla with cheap batteries, sell more Ficosa gear. So I'm wondering if Tesla should buy the other half of Ficosa and work on tight integration of technologies. One way or another, Tesla should cultivate the best digital car ecosystem.

The problem with Tesla buying the other half at this point is they don't really have the capital for it. I also don't think the automated game is going to be won with hardware and think it will be won with software. But Tesla may be able to work out a very good deal with Panasonic due to their close ties. They may also work together in sense of Tesla providing their software while Panasonic provides the hardware to other auto makers. But no matter what I can't see Tesla buying the remaining 50%. On top of that, that would be the first time to my knowledge that Tesla buying another company. While Musk does employ that strategy with solarcity, it does not sound like Tesla's style of doing things.

 

[ckessel]

Yes. Not good news.

Tesla can't seem to hold on the comms VPs. This is, what, the 3rd to leave?

 

[Jack6591]

Maybe Simon just wanted to go home.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I do not claim to be a professional chartist, but have the following observations:

TSLA seem to be poised to re-enter the regression channel built on daily chart range of 5/08 through 8/28 (initial point defined by TSLA reversing downward slide, while final point of the range taken just before the failed break-out following the cup and handle forming between 7/02 and 8/28).

We are again approaching the $265 level which was the base for the last breakout that was curtailed by Phil LeBeau question and Elon's answer on TSLA price, and seem again forming a cup. It could be that next three days bring consolidation around $265, with the break-out following the good "D+" reveal...

 

[Twiddler]

Tesla can't seem to hold on the comms VPs. This is, what, the 3rd to leave?

Interesting timing as well. Assuming that the MX design is finalized now, could there be creative differences regarding the MIII? Franz for one has said on numerous occasions that the company plans to break from traditional vehicle design on the next vehicle to take better advantage of the EV platform. Maybe the original plan was to only design the first two vehicles on this platform?

 

[aznt1217]

Tesla can't seem to hold on the comms VPs. This is, what, the 3rd to leave?

Id totally take that job.

 

[PopSmith]

Maybe Simon just wanted to go home.

That is probably part of it. He worked with Andy Palmer (recently-appointed Aston Martin CEO) at Nissan for a long time according to this article. Maybe they had recently talked and wanted to join forces again.

 

[Cattledog]

Not worried about Sproule leaving. The design, engineering, manufacturing, sales and marketing genius remains with the company. They'll find a good replacement.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Tesla Seen Adding All-Wheel-Drive Model S Version by Analysts

Good morning everyone,
probably, but only probably, nothing new for us here. However, some details with regard to AWD preferences are also interesting.

+------------------------------------------------------------------------------+

Tesla Seen Adding All-Wheel-Drive Model S Version by Analysts
2014-10-07 04:00:01.7 GMT


By Madeline O’Leary
Oct. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Tesla Motors Inc. will probably
unveil an all-wheel-drive variant of the Model S luxury sedan on
Oct. 9, said analysts including Brian Johnson at Barclays Plc
and Ivan Drury at Edmunds.com.
The move would better position the electric-car maker in
cold-weather markets such as New York and Boston where many
consumers demand all-wheel drive for use on snowy, wet roads. It
would also better align Tesla against top luxury brands
including Bayerische Motoren Werke AG’s BMW, Daimler AG’s
Mercedes-Benz and Toyota Motor Corp.’s Lexus.
“Would it make sense as a logical move? Completely. Would
Tesla gain sales? Certainly,” Drury, a senior analyst at
Edmunds, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “Tesla has
nothing to lose by offering all-wheel drive, especially when
every one of its competitors offers it.”
By adding that capability, Tesla might gain the most in the
Northeast, where the feature could make drivers “that much more
confident that the vehicle can get them where they want to go
regardless of outdoor weather conditions,” said Karl Brauer,
senior analyst at Kelley Blue Book.
Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk on Oct. 1 posted on
Twitter that the Palo Alto, California-based automaker would
“unveil the D and something else.” The billionaire included a
photo of a darkly lit, partially hidden Tesla and the Oct. 9
date.
Elizabeth Jarvis-Shean, a Tesla spokeswoman, yesterday
declined to comment about the analysts’ remarks on an all-wheel-
drive Model S.

Driver Assistance

Barclays’s Johnson wrote in a note that Tesla’s
announcement will probably include a “dual motor Model S,” to
provide all-wheel-drive capability, and “driver assistance
systems.”
A person familiar with the carmaker’s plan said on Oct. 3
that Tesla will make its first foray toward automated driving,
joining its rivals in offering technologies such as a feature
that can keep the car in its lane.
From 2009 through the first six months of 2014, the rate of
premium luxury buyers who opted for all-wheel drive rose to 46
percent from 33 percent, according to data compiled by Edmunds.
The demand for all-wheel-drive transmissions, which let all four
wheels propel the car, increased in the mid-2000s, said Brauer,
the Kelley Blue Book analyst.
After all-wheel drive became popular in sport utility
vehicles, consumers decided they wanted it in cars as well, he
said. Now, particularly in the luxury market, it’s “seen as an
expected option,” he said.
“Even on dry pavement, all-wheel drive provides a
performance benefit because it can help you turn a corner more
accurately and responsibly,” Brauer said.

For Related News and Information:
Musk’s Tesla D Intrigue Stokes Rally in Mobileye: Israel Markets
NSN ND0REG6TTDS8<GO>
Tesla Said to Join Race to Provide Automated-Driving Functions
NSN NCXVQS6JTSE8<GO>
Tesla’s Musk Channels Jobs Using Teaser for ‘D, Something Else’
NSN NCU6SJ6JTSF1<GO>
Top transportation stories: TRNT <GO>
Bloomberg Intelligence analysis of automakers: BI AUTM <GO>

- - - Updated - - -

has been confirmed today.

 

[vgrinshpun]

In the wake of filing Form 8-K regarding the three agreements between TM and Panasonic (http://archive.fast-edgar.com//20141003/AC2ZA22FZZ2RM9Z222TQ2ZXRGBLPZZ22XI62/), Panasonic indicates that initial investment in the GF will be in hundreds of millions of dollars (http://www.reuters.com/article/2014...0FV20141007?feedType=RSS&feedName=usDollarRpt)

The three agreements cover:

• commercial terms and production planning process between Panasonic and Tesla and Tesla's preparation of the GF for Panasonic
• terms under which parties will set pricing for the cells to be supplied by Pana at the GF, and detailed provisions with respect to Panasonic's various investments in the manufacturing equipment for its GF operations
• terms to Panasonic's first investment in manufacturing equipment for its GF operations

Although these agreements does not seem to add anything as far as big picture is concerned to the TM Blog Post (Panasonic and Tesla Sign Agreement for the Gigafactory | Press Releases | Tesla Motors), they detail TM - Pana commitments on the GF. I am wondering if this will provide a good foundation for an additional institutional accumulation.

WSJ reports additional details regarding the Pana investment in GF, which will include multiple installments, in hundreds of millions of dollars each:

Our initial investment amount in the factory will be tens of billions of yen,” Chief Executive Kazuhiro Tsuga told reporters at the annual CEATEC trade show in Chiba, near Tokyo. “We will expand the size as we go by pouring in further installments of similar amounts.”

“Our policy is to avoid a situation where Tesla wants to make more cars but doesn’t have enough batteries,” Mr. Tsuga said.

Panasonic Plans Big Investment in Tesla Battery Plant - WSJ

 

[evme]

has been confirmed today.

So I take it my suspicion was correct?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Good article by Brad Tuttle, Money. This may be the "something else" slated for October 9th. I'm definitely buying my next car (Model X) this way.

Tesla Certified Pre-owned Program to Bring Model S Prices Within Reach

Last week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the company would be making a big announcement on October 9. “About time to unveil the D and something else,” Musk said cryptically. No one is sure about what “the D” is, let alone “something else,” though some have speculated that the former could be a faster all-wheel drive version of the Model S, or perhaps even a Model S with self-driving features.
It’s also unclear if some or all of Musk’s “something else” has anything to do with the company’s forthcoming certified pre-owned (CPO) program, word of which was broken on Monday by Automotive News. Virtually every automaker sells CPO vehicles, which are basically just used cars with the warranty extended beyond the norm by the manufacturer, giving the buyer extra peace of mind compared to the purchase of any old jalopy on a used car lot.
CPO programs are hardly sexy. Yet for Tesla, which roared to success last year with strong sales of the Model S, even as the brand has been out of the question for the vast majority of drivers because the cars can cost in the neighborhood of$100,000, this is pretty big news.
Starting in the spring of 2016, many Model S’s will be three years old, a point at which Musk had guaranteed customers he would buy vehicles back at or near 50% of their original price, should the customer be interested. The expectation is that many early Model S buyers will take Tesla up on its trade-in option (presumably to buy a new Tesla, the automaker hopes). Tesla will service these used vehicles and then resell them at prices probably in the range of $35,000 to $50,000—pricey by used-car standards, but a deal compared to the sticker price of a new Model S, which starts at around $70K.
Anyone buying a CPO Tesla also benefits because it’s being sold directly by the automaker. Though the particulars of the program remain unknown, Tesla will presumably make the purchase less worrisome by including certain warranties. One would hope that includes a guarantee on the strength of the battery, which is essential for an electric car to remain a practical vehicle that can be driven long distances without needing a recharge.
What’s interesting is that by the time Tesla is ready to start selling three-year-old Model S’s for maybe $40,000, it will probably simultaneously be gearing up to sell a brand new model expected to be priced at around $40,000. This past summer, Musk said that the next generation of Teslas, due to be available for sale by around 2017, will sell for around half the price of a current Model S—and could start for as little as$35,000.