Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[FANGO]

I used to dream about the day when people fret over a 2% move. Congrats longs, we made it.

And I kind of miss the days of 10% every day :-/

 

[InTheShadows]

Today Phil LeBeau tweeted "$GM, $F trading at lowest levels since May '13. By comparison, $TSLA still up for the year (and down less than 1% today)."

Nice to see him making comparisons between all three American (mass production) automakers.

Does that make Tesla one of the big three now, replacing Chrysler which is now owned by Fiat?

When I get asked "where is that made?", the shocked expression on people's faces is priceless when I tell them it's American made in Fremont California.

 

[Hogfighter]

Here's how I see the week shaking out:

1) Elon enveils something REALLY cool and the stock pops. Good for us.

2) The AWD Model S doesn't impress (unlikely), and the 'something else' is something boring. Stock falls to 200 day MA = buy more.

I'm surprised that the Panasonic filing stating they are into the GF wasn't bigger news. I love the quote that their policy is to avoid the situation where Tesla wants to build more cars but can't due to battery supply. That's definitely news to me.

 

[DrGuest]

I would like to suggest to Mr. Musk that next time someone says, "It looks like your stock is really climbing". Instead of saying, "yes it is kind of high". Just say, "The stock is what it is." Both times he said "it was high" the crazy reactions caused some of the largest drops in stock. I am holding this as a long term retirement investment, as opposed to doing short term trades and playing on this emotional rollercoaster. All This stuff about GM, when is the last time they added over 6000 jobs where there were none before?

 

[MartinAustin]

I love the quote that their policy is to avoid the situation where Tesla wants to build more cars but can't due to battery supply. That's definitely news to me.

Yeah I loved that too. They've come a long way since they had to re-awaken their old mothballed factories just for Tesla, and took their sweet time doing it. They were even a little standoffish just a few months ago, cooling the rumour mill concerning their agreement to participate in the Gigafactory. By the looks of it, Panasonic are now full-time on board the Tesla Bandwagon, no matter what.

 

[woof]

Tesla can't seem to hold on the comms VPs. This is, what, the 3rd to leave?

My first thought was that Elon doesn't want to be reigned in. It must be tough to be in charge of comms when the CEO won't abide by the rules you attempt to put into place.

 

[evme]

My first thought was that Elon doesn't want to be reigned in. It must be tough to be in charge of comms when the CEO won't abide by the rules you attempt to put into place.

You mean like his mess up on the LA times article?

Tesla's Musk abandons SEX plan; will name new lower-cost car Model 3 - LA Times

 

[MartinAustin]

Hmmm, TSLA opens down between 0.25% and 0.40% in Germany.

I am happy if there is appreciation between now and the reveal, but I am also happy if there is stability this week, as the stock may have some solidity to it in the unlikely event of a negative event.

Thursday's product reveal has the potential to attract more attention than ever before, since it's the first real product reveal since the stock started going nuts around April 2013. Prior to that, Tesla was still a niche/curiosity manufacturer.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Today Elon has a public appearance on his calendar:

Vanity Fair’s first-ever New Establishment Summit takes place in San Francisco on Wednesday and Thursday. VF Daily will be providing updates throughout the two days of unexpected pairings and in-depth conversations.

A schedule of the events is now available at the summit Web site. Elon Musk will speak with the Aspen Institute’s Walter Isaacson on Wednesday, one day before Musk’s Tesla is set to unveil “the D,” a mysterious new project. The Aspen Institute partnered with Vanity Fair to bring the New Establishment to life on stage.

Vanity Fairs New Establishment Summit Kicks Off Wednesday | Vanity Fair

 

[Tasmanian Devil]

I would not take the german market as a serious indicator for anything Tlsa, Martin. As of now only 1.886 shares have been traded over here today. The number of shares traded per day is often around the 10k mark. And You know if You compare that to the millions of shares that are traded over the pond at Your place...Just forget the little lemming market over here . On the whole, the market over here has not yet realized what Tsla means. At least that´s my impression.

 

[Johan]

I would not take the german market as a serious indicator for anything Tlsa, Martin. As of now only 1.886 shares have been traded over here today. The number of shares traded per day is often around the 10k mark. And You know if You compare that to the millions of shares that are traded over the pond at Your place...Just forget the little lemming market over here . On the whole, the market over here has not yet realized what Tsla means. At least that´s my impression.

True, Frankfurt follows NASDAQ of course, but on the other hand if there were some really big news after market close in NY and pre-market trading was still not open we would see a spike on the Frankfurt exchange. An arbitrage like that would not go unnoticed by the markets. That is of course if the news piece is beyond doubt either very positive or negative for TSLA/TL0.F

 

[Causalien]

And I kind of miss the days of 10% every day :-/

It's been a great learning experience.

I also realizes that the composition of investors change over time. And that what made people like you, luvb2b and me great pickers of early stage companies also make us bad investors at this current stage. Tesla is increasingly becoming a numbers story instead of a belief story.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Tigress Financial initiates coverage on TSLA: Neutral

Today a second firm initiated coverage of Tesla Motors, it is dutch ING Group. Their rating: Neutral. No price target as far as I can see: Link

 

[FluxCap]

This analyst from a smaller firm I've never heard of looks to have very little research / insight into the company, and the statements are fairly amateurish.

UPDATE: Tigress Initiates Coverage On Tesla Motors Inc, But Concerned About Industry Obstacles | Benzinga

"Potential competition from global auto powers; poses significant risk."

Sorry analyst, wrong answer. Actual competition would be a FANTASTIC thing for Tesla. Currently there are no credible competitive products in the battery-electric luxury performance sedan/SUV category being deployed by any automaker, anywhere.

 

[chickensevil]

Getting quite an inflated drop today which is influenced by the market itself dying over further IMF news.

We are unfortunately not resisting the pull down and are taking it rather harshly.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Stifel confirms its PT $400; Tigress Financial Partners "neutral" w/o PT

Sorry, guys our BBG Terminal had some issues in the last days....
However, Tigress is joining the club with a "neutral" rating but no PT. No further details mentioned.
I like that Stifel's James Albertine confirmed his previous rating w/ PT $400.

 

[chickensevil]

What really irritates me about today's price action, was I was set to sell some options that were doing really well for me today since I was more than happy with the returns and I had other pressing matters that kept me from logging in to put in a limit order in time... -_-

So now, that position fell into a loss when I was up 100%... So I am really kicking myself right now.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Another hit piece from the WSJ. This one tries to leave the reader with the impression that Tesla got the NUMMI plant for only $50m from Toyota because of Tesla's political connections. The author implies (without stating it outright) that California put pressure on Toyota to sell the plant for peanuts to a green company to "improve its image", which had just taken a beating after the unintended acceleration brouhaha.

After Tesla deprived them of a target by paying down its government loan, what are they gonna do? Try really hard to promote a strong association between politically motivated subsidies and Tesla.

Google search leading to the article.

 

[eepic]

Another hit piece from the WSJ. This one tries to leave the reader with the impression that Tesla got the NUMMI plant for only $50m from Toyota because of Tesla's political connections. The author implies (without stating it outright) that California put pressure on Toyota to sell the plant for peanuts to a green company to "improve its image", which had just taken a beating after the unintended acceleration brouhaha.

After Tesla deprived them of a target by paying down its government loan, what are they gonna do? Try really hard to promote a strong association between politically motivated subsidies and Tesla.

Google search leading to the article.

I remember that guy on the Bloomberg "Risk Takers" series about Elon Musk saying the sale was "incredibly savvy on Toyota's part, and incredibly naive on Tesla's". Love how the spin is the other way now.

 

[TSLAopt]

I remember that guy on the Bloomberg "Risk Takers" series about Elon Musk saying the sale was "incredibly savvy on Toyota's part, and incredibly naive on Tesla's". Love how the spin is the other way now.

Great point, as activist investors one of us should put a comment in that WSJ article citing the above and include the link. Even write the chief editor of the WSJ too to explain this.
unfortunately I'm at work and can't do this stuff right now or tonight,but hopefully someone on this board can while the article is still being read.