Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[chickensevil]

I don't think CPO is the "something else" because this is not anything new for the company and was already confirmed by Tesla as coming... Why would you confirm something if you were holding on to it for the big reveal. Yes CPO is coming, but no, it is not the "something else".

 

[Chickenlittle]

Good article by Brad Tuttle, Money. This may be the "something else" slated for October 9th. I'm definitely buying my next car (Model X) this way.

Tesla Certified Pre-owned Program to Bring Model S Prices Within Reach

Last week, Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the company would be making a big announcement on October 9. “About time to unveil the D and something else,” Musk said cryptically. No one is sure about what “the D” is, let alone “something else,” though some have speculated that the former could be a faster all-wheel drive version of the Model S, or perhaps even a Model S with self-driving features.
It’s also unclear if some or all of Musk’s “something else” has anything to do with the company’s forthcoming certified pre-owned (CPO) program, word of which was broken on Monday by Automotive News. Virtually every automaker sells CPO vehicles, which are basically just used cars with the warranty extended beyond the norm by the manufacturer, giving the buyer extra peace of mind compared to the purchase of any old jalopy on a used car lot.
CPO programs are hardly sexy. Yet for Tesla, which roared to success last year with strong sales of the Model S, even as the brand has been out of the question for the vast majority of drivers because the cars can cost in the neighborhood of$100,000, this is pretty big news.
Starting in the spring of 2016, many Model S’s will be three years old, a point at which Musk had guaranteed customers he would buy vehicles back at or near 50% of their original price, should the customer be interested. The expectation is that many early Model S buyers will take Tesla up on its trade-in option (presumably to buy a new Tesla, the automaker hopes). Tesla will service these used vehicles and then resell them at prices probably in the range of $35,000 to $50,000—pricey by used-car standards, but a deal compared to the sticker price of a new Model S, which starts at around $70K.
Anyone buying a CPO Tesla also benefits because it’s being sold directly by the automaker. Though the particulars of the program remain unknown, Tesla will presumably make the purchase less worrisome by including certain warranties. One would hope that includes a guarantee on the strength of the battery, which is essential for an electric car to remain a practical vehicle that can be driven long distances without needing a recharge.
What’s interesting is that by the time Tesla is ready to start selling three-year-old Model S’s for maybe $40,000, it will probably simultaneously be gearing up to sell a brand new model expected to be priced at around $40,000. This past summer, Musk said that the next generation of Teslas, due to be available for sale by around 2017, will sell for around half the price of a current Model S—and could start for as little as$35,000.

Crazy article. Tesla has cpo program for the roadster. Model s for 40k will not happen. I looked at cpo roadsters and almost bought 4 year old one for 99k. Looked at privately listed roadsters and when I asked owners why they didn't sell back to tesla they said tesla offered too little about 60 k. So for tesla to sell 2 or 3 year old model s for 40k they would buy back that car for around 20k. Would you sell your car for that?

 

[chickensevil]

Crazy article. Tesla has cpo program for the roadster. Model s for 40k will not happen. I looked at cpo roadsters and almost bought 4 year old one for 99k. Looked at privately listed roadsters and when I asked owners why they didn't sell back to tesla they said tesla offered too little about 60 k. So for tesla to sell 2 or 3 year old model s for 40k they would buy back that car for around 20k. Would you sell your car for that?

Thanks for the info there, I never knew how much they had offered people for their Roadsters. I would suggest that the sale price of those cars are going to be inflated a bit more than the Model S, though, simply because there will never be another Roadster made (not like that). So their decay rate is much less simply because they have gained a sort of collector status.

I would also remind you that they are very hard to get now, hence the price hike, however in late 2012 they had more roadsters turned in than I think they knew what to do with so the price went way down on them. It wasn't uncommon to see them going for anywhere from 60k to 80k from the Tesla website.

With the guaranteed buyback at 50% of the base 60kW and then 40% of all options, you are looking at a minimum buyback price of 35.5k. For an 85kW no options, you are looking at 40.5k buyback. For a base performance it would be around 47k buyback. If Tesla does a 20% markup (since they are going to be giving a warranty on these and such you are going to charge a decent premium). That would place each base trim package at: 42.6k, 48.6k, and 56.4k respectively. I think 20% might be on the low side, but we will see. The price will also depend on how flooded they get with cars. The best time to get them will most certainly be around the time of the Model X release since many people are likely to trade up just like we saw with the Roadster to Model S. It will likely find a happy balancing point after that.

 

[chickensevil]

For today's price action, we are trying to buck against the negative market news about the IMF reporting negative outlook on the Eurozone, Japan and big emerging markets like Brazil as far as economic growth. It should be noted that the US was looked at favorably in this report, however Tesla is a global company, and certainly relies on global sales so a sink in the global economic growth would affect Tesla negatively.

In any case, we are trying to pull back up against the downward trend, but it isn't going so well.

 

[chickensevil]

And there we go, back into the green for now. With another down day on the market I will be happy to just hold flat here.

 

[Lessmog]

If there was indeed a sighting of a masked Model X on the street, that might imply live testing of a drive-assist system before the mystic unveiling on Thursday - or what do the rest of you figure?

 

[callmesam]

If there was indeed a sighting of a masked Model X on the street, that might imply live testing of a drive-assist system before the mystic unveiling on Thursday - or what do the rest of you figure?

A masked Model X alpha, on the street, means just "testing". Nothing specific to driver-assist/autopilot.

 

[austinEV]

Not sure if I should share this, but I have a friend in Cali who was driving around santa monica who saw a camo'd Tesla with bird doors... if ya know what I mean....

You know, I read this as "a camo'ed Tesla model S with bird doors". I thought this was a sighting of a sports coupe. Now that would be a great something else. A 2-door super coupe, model "V".

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

Hey Guys, I noticed that as Euro instability moved higher, I've been trying to incorporate more macro-data into my trades to understand them better. I found this really cool tool World Economic Calendar . I don't know if it's been shared before here, but it's really awesome and helps you understand what macro indicators are most likely going to effect TSLA. It's free, shows you what expectations are for indicators, how much it's likely to move markets, and what actual results are.

Also, IIRC, there isn't a livestream of the Oct 9th event? Correct me if I am wrong.

 

[FluxCap]

Hey Guys, I noticed that as Euro instability moved higher, I've been trying to incorporate more macro-data into my trades to understand them better. I found this really cool tool World Economic Calendar . I don't know if it's been shared before here, but it's really awesome and helps you understand what macro indicators are most likely going to effect TSLA. It's free, shows you what expectations are for indicators, how much it's likely to move markets, and what actual results are.

That is indeed a useful macro link, TSLA Hopeful, thanks. I have a few more links in the original post of the thread in my signature below, in case anyone wants to stay plugged in to US market in particular. I favor Bloomberg's calendar myself, as explanations and links are plentiful.

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

That is indeed a useful macro link, TSLA Hopeful, thanks. I have a few more links in the original post of the thread in my signature below, in case anyone wants to stay plugged in to US market in particular. I favor Bloomberg's calendar myself, as explanations and links are plentiful.

Nice! I like the Bloomberg one too. I think as Europe struggles more, we'll see th Macroeconomic Analysis thread come back to life.

 

[chickensevil]

This is why I have been trying to post major things I think might move Tesla (TSLA) in this thread as they come up, just so people don't panic that they need to sell or if they are wondering if it is a good time to buy or not. Leading up to the last bottoming out of the stock price all we had was macro indicators dragging TSLA down. I am willing to bet if not for it being propped up on the Tweet by Elon we would have continued to go lower since the overall Nasdaq has been taking a beating over the last couple of weeks.

 

[twinklejet]

This is what worries me.. without that tweet we might be at 215 and having a healthy bounce.. but instead we are artifically propped up by anticipation for thuraday and if it ends up being much ado about nothing we could crash like gtat on friday.. so it all dependa on what hapoens on thuraday nihht..

 

[FluxCap]

we could crash like gtat on friday

That is a virtually impossible and frankly tasteless comparison.

 

[jkliu47]

This is what worries me.. without that tweet we might be at 215 and having a healthy bounce.. but instead we are artifically propped up by anticipation for thuraday and if it ends up being much ado about nothing we could crash like gtat on friday.. so it all dependa on what hapoens on thuraday nihht..

Really? Crash 90% like GTAT? That was a joke right? :tongue:

I will remind you that the major reason GTAT crashed is because it filed for bankruptcy without ANY notice ..

GT Advanced Files For Bankruptcy - Business Insider

 

[chickensevil]

Whew, shakey day, but we really managed to resist the Nasdaq's pull downward in the last hour and only closed down .40% or 1.05$

Given the negative market today I am quite happy with the results.

 

[Curt Renz]

Whew, shakey day, but we really managed to resist the Nasdaq's pull downward in the last hour and only closed down .40% or 1.05$

Given the negative market today I am quite happy with the results.

Indeed, today Tesla Motors (TSLA -0.4%) fared significantly better than the popular market averages, which were down more than 1.5%, and far better than General Motors (GM -5.9%) and Ford (F -2.9%). Relative strength for TSLA bodes well.

 

[Causalien]

Indeed, today Tesla Motors (TSLA -0.4%) fared significantly better than the popular market averages, which were down more than 1.5%, and far better than General Motors (GM -5.9%) and Ford (F -2.9%). Relative strength for TSLA bodes well.

I used to dream about the day when people fret over a 2% move. Congrats longs, we made it.

 

[32no]

This is what worries me.. without that tweet we might be at 215 and having a healthy bounce.. but instead we are artifically propped up by anticipation for thuraday and if it ends up being much ado about nothing we could crash like gtat on friday.. so it all dependa on what hapoens on thuraday nihht..

The stock isn't artificially propped up at all. The fall from $290 was without good reason, and the run up was much shorter than the previous run ups, so why would we go all the way back down to the 200 DMA? Also, I pointed out a pattern that seemed to repeat itself again: the first big move for Tesla was from $55 to $195, then Tesla fell to $115 ($60 higher than $55), before going to $265 and subsequently falling to $175 ($60 higher than $115). Finally, the most recent move was up to $290, and we fell to $235 ($60 above $175). We certainly will not crash like GTAT, which announced bankruptcy out of the blue. Also, Thursday is almost guaranteed to not be much ado about nothing because it is a big event with a lot of people invited, and it is highly likely that AWD Model S will be released, which is definitely not something minor.

 

[MartinAustin]

Today Phil LeBeau tweeted "$GM, $F trading at lowest levels since May '13. By comparison, $TSLA still up for the year (and down less than 1% today)."

Nice to see him making comparisons between all three American (mass production) automakers.