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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

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"Feelings" usually lead investors astray. Tesla is in an entirely different situation from Netflix, whose earnings report appears to be scaring TSLA traders in the after-hours. The two companies' products, prices, and target markets are entirely different. Netflix beat expectations for Q3, but its customer growth and Q4 guidance were disappointing. Tesla is not really valued based on current or next quarter earnings. It's based on the potential for when Models X & 3 and the Gigafactory become realities.

Based on the macros we know and your knowledge of the markets what is your prediction for TSLA price near term...before ER; what you expect from ER/CC and after ER TSLA price? Just curious. Thanks
 
I wonder if this is affecting TSLA after hours also.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...hibition-of-sales-in-michigan.html?cmpid=yhoo

shame to see the afternoon gain disappear after hours.

It gave me a nice chuckle at least:

“States are fully within their rights to protect consumers by choosing the way cars are sold and serviced,” Charles Cyrill, a spokesman, said in an e-mailed statement. “Fierce competition between local dealers in any given market drives down prices both in and across brands. While if a factory owned all of its stores, it could set prices and buyers would lose virtually all bargaining power.”
 
With respect jhm, I don't think you understand completely - the data actually reinforces the fact that Saudi Arabia is bankrolling price fixing or "dumping" to attack competition and potentially bankrupt them. Their sovereign wealth is so massive they can literally sustain sub-$80/barrel oil for years, taking losses in the trillions, and still have enough to jack up the prices later once competition has been eliminated. Otherwise they would simply decrease production to meet current demand.

Edit: guys take overtly political discussion out of the short-term thread please.
FluxCap, it's not my intent to politicize this. I honestly do not know who to believe on this. Kindly point me to data. Thanks in advance.
 
It's not ebola. There are cascading fears fund managers around the market are throwing around mostly related to what prolonged cheap oil does to the equities and bond markets. OPEC has effectively decided to bankroll a massive tanking of the the market. The carnage may not end soon. Be careful people.

This has nothing to do with TSLA.

My late father owned a driving school in Palo Alto. He oversaw a number of instructors, but personally taught people related to VIPs. During January of 1986 he was teaching a Stanford University student who was a son of the Saudi Arabian king. The prince told my father that the Saudis were about to temporarily pump out enough crude oil to drastically lower prices and put offshore drillers out of business. My father told me. Sure enough the oil pumping and huge price decline commenced a few days later. We would have made a huge profit, if we had sold crude oil futures. But we did not take advantage of the inside information. We would not have wanted the prince to be severely punished.
 
My late father owned a driving school in Palo Alto. He oversaw a number of instructors, but personally taught people related to VIPs. During January of 1986 he was teaching a Stanford University student who was the son of the Saudi Arabian king. The prince told my father that the Saudis were about to temporarily pump out enough crude oil to drastically lower prices and put offshore drillers out of business. My father told me. Sure enough the oil pumping and huge price decline commenced a few days later. We would have made a huge profit, if we had sold crude oil futures. But we did not take advantage of the inside information. We would not have wanted the prince to be severely punished.

Yikes! That's first-hand history of an unpleasant sort, indeed. Here's hoping we emerge from this oil dumping mess 2.0 relatively unscathed.
 
...the after hours price action has me back wishing I liquidated when it hit 230....

I've been average long at $29.91, but finally caved in and bought a measly 30 shares at 223 based on a long term buy set for that price. Based on the limited information available to me I looked at the price in a previous dip at its low (I guess it was 218 or so). So far, even after hours, that may be an ok strategy and, of course, I hope it won't go lower still.

I really think the oil discussion is irrelevant to TSLA as some have hinted earlier. I think the market panic is about oil prices as an indicator of our economy's overall health and the Saudi connection is about their wish to hurt ISIS/ISIL Russia, and Iran, not the U.S. (Although relations are strained by Obama's effort to get a nuclear deal with Iran.)

To my mind, as I've said before, to assess the general economic outlook I watch Germany. Tomorrow could be another volatile day ending upward by a massive amount if Angela Merkel announces a stimulus plan focussed on infrastructure. That better happen soon for Europe's sake and the rest of us.

I'm sorry to interject politics again, but it is hard for a political scientist to separate them from discussion of energy, since that is all that there is except for empty space, and if you're a string theorist, that may not be void either. I've tried to stick to the short term price consideration; the overall market does influence Tesla, but I agree with all of you this volatility change is not about Tesla.


 
Simple chart, blue is the trend line that was broken. I expect the 200 day won't hold combined with Q3 miss to start nibbling around $180.
Screen Shot 2014-10-16 at 4.47.35 AM.jpg
 
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