Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[Bunky]

I think we are just drifting with the market rather than any specific news.

 

[Citizen-T]

Just a hangover from yesterday's party. Bulls still need to drag themselves out of bed and get something to eat before they can get back to buying.

 

[FluxCap]

Just a hangover from yesterday's party. Bulls still need to drag themselves out of bed and get something to eat before they can get back to buying.

In my case, that is a quite literal description. Took the Mrs. to dinner last night.

I actually expect some retracement down before we resume an uptrend going into ER, but I'm admittedly not paying huge attention to trading today.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note

Some posts were moved to China Market situation and outlook

 

[FluxCap]

Interesting article on Autonomous driving that makes some valid points, but clearly does not understand the full capability TODAY of Tesla's fully-engineered autopilot solution vs. competitors.

Prepare for the part-time self-driving car | Ars Technica

If anyone wants to chime in to set the record straight on Tesla's significant advantages there is a "live web discussion" coming up at 3pm ET:
http://live.arstechnica.com/robots-on-the-road-ars-unite-live-web-discussion/

 

[geturchiru]

From the above article

A couple of weeks ago, Tesla wooed its fan base with the news that soon, its cars will be able to drive themselves. But the autonomous car may be one of the company's least innovative moves yet. Those who’ve been watching the industry closely will know that Mercedes, Volvo, Audi, and others have similar products waiting in the wings, ready to hit the streets as soon as the rules and regulations fall into place.

While others need to wait for the approvals, Tesla already selling them and update the software to enable them with out visiting the SC. When other manufacturers will adapt to such techniques?

 

[Jack6591]

Will the FUD shift from lack of demand to an inability to scale up production?

 

[jhm]

Will the FUD shift from lack of demand to an inability to scale up production?

Next thesis: Short Tesla now because it will take them at leat 12 months to double their capacity. And by that time oil will be so cheap, people will power their homes with little gasoline back up generators. And demand for Model S will wane as Model X cannibalizes sales. Clearly this will all end badly.

 

[AlMc]

Will the FUD shift from lack of demand to an inability to scale up production?

It would be a bad tack for the FUDsters. TM has been continually increasing production Q over Q.

 

[ongba]

And holy crap! What is with the Nasdaq volatility starting at 2PM? The index is going all over the place! 4540 to 4524.10 to 4536.16 to 4520.19 to 4540.62... all in about 30 minutes...

I believe it has to do with the official ending of QE by the fed (at least this round of QE)

 

[FluxCap]

Correct. My first post in the thread in my signature has some important links for anyone trading equities in public markets to use to stay ahead of market-wide data that moves all stocks. If you don't at least make some attempt to understand the market movements generated by economic indicators and events, you are trading partially blind.

Fed Cites Improved Labor Market While Ending QE as Planned - Bloomberg

Edit: just so you know Chickens/ongba I was not trying to single you out, just trying to help folks understand why the market moves at times like this (scheduled Fed Meeting minutes release at 2pm, in this case).

 

[jhm]

Might Tesla buy solar carports from SolarCity? New product with low installation cost, http://www.solarcity.com/newsroom/press/solarcity’s-new-zs-beam-solar-carport-system-makes-it-faster-cheaper-easier-and-safer

 

[Curt Renz]

I believe it has to do with the official ending of QE by the fed (at least this round of QE)

Yes, indeed. The prices of the major averages can be expected to gyrate wildly during the minutes following 14:00 ET eight times a year on a Wednesday after the publication of monetary policy decisions by the Federal Open Market Committee.

 

[chickensevil]

Correct. My first post in the thread in my signature has some important links for anyone trading equities in public markets to use to stay ahead of market-wide data that moves all stocks. If you don't at least make some attempt to understand the market movements generated by economic indicators and events, you are trading partially blind.

Fed Cites Improved Labor Market While Ending QE as Planned - Bloomberg

Edit: just so you know Chickens/ongba I was not trying to single you out, just trying to help folks understand why the market moves at times like this (scheduled Fed Meeting minutes release at 2pm, in this case).

Not at all, thank you! For some reason I had forgot about that happening today. Thanks for the reminder. I guess there goes the thoughts that they would continue spending, but I understand the volatility of it all since people haven't quite decided if the announcement is good or bad... which is causing the market to jump all over the place. Seems to not be hitting TSLA that hard though, which is interesting and a bit unexpected.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Ascendiant Capital Market recommends "buy" with PT $320

My apologies for cross-posting, but I would be very curious to see what would be market reaction to the new note issued by Barclays.
Hopefully we will see more details on this tomorrow am, when Derek Vinyard posts his usual Bloomberg update :wink:

Thanks for the news but unfortunately I can't find any reports related to Johnson's view other than this http://online.wsj.com/articles/tesl...american-deliveries-in-3rd-quarter-1414519813

but as mention in the title, we have a new TSLA analyst. Mr Theodore R. ONeill; used to work at Wunderlich Securities, Kaufman Bros among others.
This is the same analyst who was so confident that the "D" will stand for "drop top", so it should have been a convertible. Funny.
And as you can see, Stifel confirms its PT of $400.

 

[JRP3]

I wish TM would reveal monthly delivery numbers as it would greatly help investors.

It would take away some volatility, and if you play the volatility that would actually not be helpful. At least if you play it right :wink: (Not that I always have). Besides, it would be less interesting, and the shorts seem to be more upset about the lack of monthly numbers than the longs, and I like to see them get all worked up about it :biggrin: FUD actually helps those who know better.

 

[Perfectlogic]

Relax guys, noone was expecting a beat yesterday, so unless the SP rallies the next week it won't be built in. Actually I would argue a lot of scepticism about meeting yearly guidance is built into the SP at these levels when you look at the recent downturn in spite of a positive developement for Tesla.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

a bit off-topic.

 

[emupilot]

Thank goodness nobody is really buying it (if the reflection of the market is a fair indicator)

So Ward's Auto put out a provably false report and the stock tanks. An investment bank puts out a wildly optimistic report and the stock slumps. I was hoping the trading bots would have gotten excited by the report - it would have provided a good selling opportunity for TMC investors.

 

[jhm]

Having been one of the people who used VIN assignments to try to gauge delivery numbers in 2013 Q3 that was picked up by some analysts to predict a huge beat I am skeptical of this 8,800 delivery report. I wish TM would reveal monthly delivery numbers as it would greatly help investors.

I agree. This is why I set up the thread on whether Tesla should post monthly numbers. Would you post your argument there? Just about everyone posting on that thread is opposed to monthly data, and I'm afraid we're just not getting robust debate on this.