Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[30seconds]

Well this should make Monday interesting
From the 10-Q - Telsa considers that the Model 3 Alpha Prototype is almost complete

As of September 30, 2014, the following three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:
* Successful completion of the Model X Beta Prototype;
* Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle; and
* Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype.

 

[chickensevil]

Well this should make Monday interesting
From the 10-Q - Telsa considers that the Model 3 Alpha Prototype is almost complete

As of September 30, 2014, the following three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:
* Successful completion of the Model X Beta Prototype;
* Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle; and
* Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype.

This also means that as of filing they haven't finished the Beta yet either... Really hope we get those soon.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Well this should make Monday interesting
From the 10-Q - Telsa considers that the Model 3 Alpha Prototype is almost complete

As of September 30, 2014, the following three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:
* Successful completion of the Model X Beta Prototype;
* Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle; and
* Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype.

"Considered probable of achievement" as of 30 Sept 2014 million sounds good, but achievement when? Within a few months? A year?

The existence of a Model 3 prototype would be a stunning development, as I wouldn't expect one until Q1 2016 at earliest.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

This also means that as of filing they haven't finished the Beta yet either... Really hope we get those soon.

Shareholder letter said the Alpha was completed and that Tesla was building Betas (implied that no Beta had yet been finished).

 

[mrdoubleb]

"Considered probable of achievement" as of 30 Sept 2014 million sounds good, but achievement when? Within a few months? A year?

The existence of a Model 3 prototype would be a stunning development, as I wouldn't expect one until Q1 2016 at earliest.

Wow. Remember when a few months ago Franz let it slip that They were targeting a 2015 Detroit revealof Model 3? Suddenly does nőt sound that crazy anymore...

 

[Chickenlittle]

Well this should make Monday interesting
From the 10-Q - Telsa considers that the Model 3 Alpha Prototype is almost complete

As of September 30, 2014, the following three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:
* Successful completion of the Model X Beta Prototype;
* Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle; and
* Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype.

read it too but missed the words almost and complete in reference to model3. Will read again

 

[AudubonB]

Well this should make Monday interesting
From the 10-Q - Telsa considers that the Model 3 Alpha Prototype is almost complete

As of September 30, 2014, the following three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:
* Successful completion of the Model X Beta Prototype;
* Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle; and
* Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype.

As much as I consider the above a consummation devoutly to be wished - although I confess for the life of me I cannot understand "...considered probable of achievement" - I cannot, in four reads of the 10Q, find those statements. Quoting directly from the 10Q that I am reading:

p.25

In February 2012, we revealed an early prototype of the Model X crossover as the first vehicle we intend to develop by leveraging the Model S platform. We continue to test the Alpha prototypes and are in the process of building the first Beta prototypes. We recently decided to build in significantly more validation testing time to achieve the best Model X possible. We also expect this will enable a more rapid production ramp as compared to the production ramp for Model S in 2012. In anticipation of this effort, we now expect Model X deliveries to start in the third quarter of 2015.

p.26

we will continue to significantly expand production capacity for Model S and Model X, continue the construction of the Gigafactory, invest in our customer support infrastructure, continue the development of Model X and start early design work on Model 3.

Please guide me to where the points you cite exist, if they truly do - thanks!

 

[30seconds]

I don't think there is any hard and fast accounting rules about what constitutes probable but from what I understand this should mean that they have done some significant work on the alpha and it could be ready in next 1- 2, maybe 3 quarters. I would find it odd to disclose this if we talking about Q4 2015

- - - Updated - - -

See page 19


http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1318605/000119312514403635/d812482d10q.htm

 

[AudubonB]

Got it! Thanks.

That's much clearer. I believe the moderately bizarre term "...considered probable of achievement" should be considered by most mortal English speakers as signifying, for the purpose of fulfilling stock option incentives, goalposts that the company believes likely.

So....that p.19 snippet you gave really does tell us nothing more than that Tesla continues to believe that, at some unspecified future date, it will have achieved those. I agree that there likely aren't any hard accounting rules. Too bad!

 

[uselesslogin]

Well this should make Monday interesting
From the 10-Q - Telsa considers that the Model 3 Alpha Prototype is almost complete

As of September 30, 2014, the following three performance milestones were considered probable of achievement:
* Successful completion of the Model X Beta Prototype;
* Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle; and
* Successful completion of the Model 3 Alpha Prototype.

OK folks lets not get too excited. Please see the following excerpt from the Q2 *2013* 10Q. So Model 3 Alpha Detroit 2016 maybe based on precedent...
As of June 30, 2013, the following three performance milestones, coupled with the required market conditions, were considered
probable of achievement:

• Successful completion of the Model X Engineering Prototype (Alpha);
• Successful completion of the Model X Vehicle Prototype (Beta); and
• Completion of the first Model X Production Vehicle.

 

[30seconds]

Not bad considering the X alpha is done and Elon said that X beta is just about done. I'm going with the model3 alpha done towards end Q2 2015

 

[TD1]

Tesla Motors Inc has the Highest Revenue Per Employee in the Automobile Manufacturers Industry

Tesla Motors Inc has the Highest Revenue Per Employee in the Automobile Manufacturers Industry (TSLA, F, GM, THO, WGO) | Comtex SmarTrend

 

[chickensevil]

I hope they are considering 10,000 employees in their calculation.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Tesla Motors Inc has the Highest Revenue Per Employee in the Automobile Manufacturers Industry

Tesla Motors Inc has the Highest Revenue Per Employee in the Automobile Manufacturers Industry (TSLA, F, GM, THO, WGO) | Comtex SmarTrend

I am puzzled by this article. With a claimed RPE at $2.3M and 10,000 employees the total revenue must be $23B. At ASP of $105,000 this works out to 219,048 cars year, nowhere near the current TM production rate.

Am I missing something?

 

[Runarbt]

I am puzzled by this article. With a claimed RPE at $2.3M and 10,000 employees the total revenue must be $23B. At ASP of $105,000 this works out to 219,048 cars year, nowhere near the current TM production rate.

Am I missing something?

ZEV credits, batteries/motors delivered to the Mercedes EV, misc. other income ?

 

[FANGO]

I am puzzled by this article. With a claimed RPE at $2.3M and 10,000 employees the total revenue must be $23B. At ASP of $105,000 this works out to 219,048 cars year, nowhere near the current TM production rate.

Am I missing something?

Maybe they don't count service and sales, since it wouldn't make sense to do so for other manufacturers, nor would it necessarily even be possible. So maybe if you just count engineering and production, or maybe just one of the two, that's how your arrive at that number.

 

[vgrinshpun]

ZEV credits, batteries/motors delivered to the Mercedes EV, misc. other income ?

Those are minor contributors to the earnings. Even if we consider 33,000 cars, the guided production for 2014, the real earnings works out to be 6.64 times less than the one implied from the article.

- - - Updated - - -

Maybe they don't count service and sales, since it wouldn't make sense to do so for other manufacturers, nor would it necessarily even be possible. So maybe if you just count engineering and production, or maybe just one of the two, that's how your arrive at that number.

In order to make their numbers work, the service and sales staff has to be 85% of the total count, leaving approximately 1500 for engineering and production, improbably low number.

 

[Derek Vinyard]

Good morning, MLV&Co. raffirms its "buy" and $300 PT.

Frankfurt Stock Exchange

€192,999

0,70 0,36%

10.11 11:17

 

[aznt1217]

I expect boredom till FY figures are released. Unless some super stellar reviews come out on the D or Analyst's bump up their targets after industry conferences.

 

[InTheShadows]

I expect boredom till FY figures are released. Unless some super stellar reviews come out on the D or Analyst's bump up their targets after industry conferences.

What about a beta X reveal?