Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[AlMc]

What about a beta X reveal?

I don't see this until just before or after New Years day.

 

[pz1975]

I wonder whether we may start to hear some more "color" (analysts' favorite word on ER CCs) on stationary storage and its financial potential. There have a few small nuggets here and there but nothing that has caught on in terms of true potential valuation. I think if the market starts to understand the true potential of this the the stock could move. I think very little of that potential is priced in currently.

 

[eepic]

I wonder whether we may start to hear some more "color" (analysts' favorite word on ER CCs) on stationary storage and its financial potential. There have a few small nuggets here and there but nothing that has caught on in terms of true potential valuation. I think if the market starts to understand the true potential of this the the stock could move. I think very little of that potential is priced in currently.

Speak of the devil, a big power line operator in Texas is looking for $2B in batteries (in the GWh), if they are cleared by regulations. They have spoken to Tesla about such an undertaking. We could see more of these stories for massive contracts trickle in over time.

Texas Utility Plans $2 Billion Battery Fix for Wavering Wind and Solar Power - Bloomberg

 

[Derek Vinyard]

you heard about this today?

Oncor has talked to Tesla Motors Inc. about using its batteries for the grid. Use of batteries to supply electricity to the grid on demand would help with intermittent wind and solar power, which only generate when the sun shines or winds blow. Texas generates the most wind power of any state.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-texas-batteries-would-smooth-renewables.html

- - - Updated - - -

Speak of the devil, a big power line operator in Texas is looking for $2B in batteries (in the GWh), if they are cleared by regulations. They have spoken to Tesla about such an undertaking. We could see more of these stories for massive contracts trickle in over time.

Texas Utility Plans $2 Billion Battery Fix for Wavering Wind and Solar Power - Bloomberg

+1...guess I was 1min too late :wink:.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Very interesting -- buying 3,000 to 5,000 MW appears to be cost-effective at a cost of $350/kWh. This is from a study by The Brattle Group, one of the most reputable consultancies in the power business. I know most of the authors, and their good, straight-shooters.

Note that all of this storage is supposed to be distributed, not centralized. Very interesting indeed.

 

[chickensevil]

Very interesting -- buying 3,000 to 5,000 MW appears to be cost-effective at a cost of $350/kWh. This is from a study by The Brattle Group, one of the most reputable consultancies in the power business. I know most of the authors, and their good, straight-shooters.

Note that all of this storage is supposed to be distributed, not centralized. Very interesting indeed.

Assuming that the power generation is also somewhat distributed this makes the most sense. less loss on the lines as the over-generation will feed to a nearby battery pack if possible.

 

[jhm]

Very interesting -- buying 3,000 to 5,000 MW appears to be cost-effective at a cost of $350/kWh. This is from a study by The Brattle Group, one of the most reputable consultancies in the power business. I know most of the authors, and their good, straight-shooters.

Note that all of this storage is supposed to be distributed, not centralized. Very interesting indeed.

Nice study. I like the perspective of value to different participants: wholesale merchants, systemwide, and customers. It's worth understanding that the full value of storage may not be sufficiently realized separately by merchants, T&D or consumers to make the investment.

One small point, however, is that the $350/kWh value this study puts on storage does not represent the price Tesla might get out of this. Specifically, $350 is divided $200 for the battery (to the vendor, Tesla) and $150 for installation (to Oncor). So $200 is a fair price for Tesla. It does strike me that $150 installation ought to be challenged. Many homeowners and businesses would be happy to have a 10 kW / 20 kWh system on site, and I cannot fathom how it should cost $3000 just to install. So I'm a bit suspicious.

 

[InTheShadows]

The inverters would cost more than $3000 for a system at the residential scale, not to mention the rest of the balance of system, permits, design, g&a, etc.

So is this going to move the stock? I was just considering selling some covered calls.

 

[Jack6591]

The inverters would cost more than $3000 for a system at the residential scale, not to mention the rest of the balance of system, permits, design, g&a, etc.

So is this going to move the stock? I was just considering selling some covered calls.

The opportunity will present itself first in reducing utility demand charges (industrial and commercial businesses).

 

[Derek Vinyard]

FBN Securities confirm their "outperform" rating and PT $325 since Sept 8.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Nice to see TSLA in the green at the start of the trading session, for a change, especially on a Tuesday! Anyone knows why the gap up today?

 

[FredTMC]

Nice to see TSLA I. green at the start of the trading session, for a change, especially on a Tuesday! Anyone knows why the gap up today?

I wonder the same thing myself. No idea here... I like it though

 

[austinEV]

I wonder the same thing myself. No idea here... I like it though

Why wouldn't we be going up? In broad trends, the price is rebounding off the 200day as it has twice before. Nothing fundamentally wrong with the company and the worry of the Q3 results is lifted. We underperformed vs the indexes prior to the ER, so it makes sense there is some pent up demand.

Could also be an Elon play after the satellite tweet.

 

[Lump]

Business Insider resurrected the ridicules Apple should buy Tesla thesis Apple Should Buy Tesla - Business Insider

 

[MartinAustin]

I think it's dawning on some energy infrastructure investors that TSLA is also going to become a player in that business... due in simple part to their soon owning half of the world's battery production capacity. It would be nice if two sets of investors wanted to buy the stock!

 

[Perfectlogic]

Why wouldn't we be going up? In broad trends, the price is rebounding off the 200day as it has twice before. Nothing fundamentally wrong with the company and the worry of the Q3 results is lifted. We underperformed vs the indexes prior to the ER, so it makes sense there is some pent up demand.

Could also be an Elon play after the satellite tweet.

The relief rally, it's happening.

 

[NOLA_Mike]

The big money that's been holding the price in check took today off for Veterans Day. When they get back to work tomorrow they will not be happy with today's price action...

 

[v12 to 12v]

Motor Trend should announce "Car of the Year" in a few days. Now the P85D is one of the Motor Trend's "Editors Picks".
One of our biggest surprise moves ever was after the 2012 MT COTY award.

 

[InTheShadows]

Motor Trend should announce "Car of the Year" in a few days. Now the P85D is one of the Motor Trend's "Editors Picks".
One of our biggest surprise moves ever was after the 2012 MT COTY award.

Would they pick the same model car two years in a row?

 

[v12 to 12v]

Would they pick the same model car two years in a row?

The Model S was two years ago. I consider the P85D a different model. They might meet that criteria for Motor Trend.