Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2014

[RobStark]

38 kWh per 100 mile = 380kWh per mile. Isn't that a large change from the previous EPA rating on the P85?

Though the 89 mpge sounds the same (I don't have my P85 sticker in front of me). 85kWh for 265 miles ~= 320kWh/mile.

The EPA changed their protocols for rating EVs. It pretty much assumes worst case scenario now for each possible variable.

Quite a debate going on in teslamotors.com forums in at least two threads.

Here is one that describes the differences in the first post.


http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/new-epa-rating-system-explained


Bottom line P85D does a bit worse in city because added weight and does 5% better on highway where it can take advantage of the higher ratio from the front drive unit.

 

[MartinAustin]

The EPA changed their protocols for rating EVs. It pretty much assumes worst case scenario now for each possible variable.

Quite a debate going on in teslamotors.com forums in at least two threads.

Here is one that describes the differences in the first post.


http://www.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/new-epa-rating-system-explained


Bottom line P85D does a bit worse in city because added weight and does 5% better on highway where it can take advantage of the higher ratio from the front drive unit.

Yeah I don't think we need to worry too much. If any FUDsters out there want to post that the new car has less range than what was expected, they'll look pretty dumb for not reporting that the EPA changed its test.

Also, owners of the dual-motor cars will learn how to get the best range out of the car. The EPA test, whether it changes or not, is just one test done in one place, once. As we know from 2 years of Model S driving already, real world driving affects your range depending on where you live, climate, weather, etc..

Hoping we will see a bump on Monday once news percolates out that the cars are shipping.

 

[InTheShadows]

P85Ds shipping NOW.

I hope they are. The little rally and big volume at the end of the day was really nice to see. A turn around and rebound to the 230's or even 240s would be loved by me very much. Almost as much as the Detroit auto show last year.

 

[MSMX2014]

P85Ds shipping NOW.

Here is my P85+ sticker. In comparison the P85D displays better city and highway mileage, but slightly lower range at 242 vs 265 for P85. Seems insignificant difference given the incredible increase in torque, HP, AWD etc that the P85D offers.

***Update*** Just learned from Trip Chowdhry that the 242 is misleading because of the way the EPA determined mileage for my P85+ sticker. Below are his comments. http://stks.co/p17BW

• The EPA range of P85D is estimated to be 242 miles and not 285 miles that TSLA claimed at the launch
• This discrepancy may be because of the following:
  • EPA changed its rules in 2013...before 2013, the range of the car was calculated using 100% fully charged battery
  • However, after 2013, EPA calculated the range by taking the average of 100% fully charged battery and 80% charged battery. i.e. the range is calculated using an average of 90% charged battery - and also depending on the mode of P85D driving - Comfort, Sport and Insane (Insane mode gets 0 - 60 in 3.2 sec), the range varies
  • Using Apples to Apples comparison, i.e. using the pre 2013 EPA testing method of 100% charged battery figures, the P85D range of 242 miles would have actually been 266 miles, better than its RWD version, which gives an estimated ranged of 265 miles
  • P85D continues to be the most efficient 4WD in the market, where the range is equal if not better than its RWD version

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

http://seekingalpha.com/pr/11901475...through-breakthrough-manufacturing-technology

Alcoa Unveils Next-Generation Aluminum Materials Through Breakthrough Manufacturing Technology

Video about Nanosteeel
NanoSteel Redefining Steel for the Auto Industry - YouTube

Any engineers or scientists who can explain the differences (pros, cons) between Nanosteel and Alcoa's Next-Gen Aluminum? Which would likely be more suitable for Tesla? Which would Tesla cost less and achieve a better result? Will this new technology reduce the cost of the Model 3?

 

[palmer_md]

Here is my P85+ sticker. In comparison the P85D displays better city and highway mileage, but slightly lower range at 242 vs 265 for P85. Seems insignificant difference given the incredible increase in torque, HP, AWD etc that the P85D offers.

I'd bet you will probably get better freeway mileage based on those stickers. Highway mileage jumped from 90mpge to 94mpge. EPA rating does not have a lot of highway in the combined test, so the lower city mileage hurt the EPA number, but I'd be willing to bet folks will find they get better range on the freeway with the P85D over the P85 (rwd).

 

[Lump]

P85+ window sticker matches whats stated on the order page while the P85D doesn't! CEO claimed increased range, Tesla order page even today states 285 without any disclaimers, the window sticker printed by Tesla (if true) states 242, did they think nobody would notice or care as long as acceleration was insane? While TMC owners understand the calculations arriving at 242, most will not.

 

[MSMX2014]

I agree.

 

[BlueTan85]

Here is my P85+ sticker. In comparison the P85D displays better city and highway mileage, but slightly lower range at 242 vs 265 for P85. Seems insignificant difference given the incredible increase in torque, HP, AWD etc that the P85D offers.

***Update*** Just learned from Trip Chowdhry that the 242 is misleading because of the way the EPA determined mileage for my P85+ sticker. Below are his comments. http://stks.co/p17BW

• The EPA range of P85D is estimated to be 242 miles and not 285 miles that TSLA claimed at the launch
• This discrepancy may be because of the following:
  • EPA changed its rules in 2013...before 2013, the range of the car was calculated using 100% fully charged battery
  • However, after 2013, EPA calculated the range by taking the average of 100% fully charged battery and 80% charged battery. i.e. the range is calculated using an average of 90% charged battery - and also depending on the mode of P85D driving - Comfort, Sport and Insane (Insane mode gets 0 - 60 in 3.2 sec), the range varies
  • Using Apples to Apples comparison, i.e. using the pre 2013 EPA testing method of 100% charged battery figures, the P85D range of 242 miles would have actually been 266 miles, better than its RWD version, which gives an estimated ranged of 265 miles
  • P85D continues to be the most efficient 4WD in the market, where the range is equal if not better than its RWD version

Does Mr. Chowdhry have actual facts or is he only speculating as to the meaning of the 242?

It sounds like Mr. Chowdhry has been reading the TMC forum over the past 24 hours, where many of these bullet points were brought up. But it's all speculation, no matter how reasonable. Tesla Motors has not spoken. Have they?

 

[RobStark]

http://seekingalpha.com/pr/11901475...through-breakthrough-manufacturing-technology

Alcoa Unveils Next-Generation Aluminum Materials Through Breakthrough Manufacturing Technology

Video about Nanosteeel
NanoSteel Redefining Steel for the Auto Industry - YouTube

Any engineers or scientists who can explain the differences (pros, cons) between Nanosteel and Alcoa's Next-Gen Aluminum? Which would likely be more suitable for Tesla? Which would Tesla cost less and achieve a better result? Will this new technology reduce the cost of the Model 3?

Not engineer or scientist but Nanosteel claims 87% potential weight savings of aluminum if part designed from scratch with the strength of nanosteel in mind at half the cost.

Alcoa's micromill aluminum is not cheaper or lighter than standard aluminum but much easier to work with and more readily formed into complex shapes. Alcoa says "formability" increases 40% and is twice as "formable" as standard high strength steel. It says Audi and Jaguar use two grades of aluminum to make their cars while switching to micromill aluminum would only require one thereby simplifying the manufacturing process.

If both pan out with their final testing it seems the cheaper price of nanosteel or one of their competitors would be more appropriate for a Model 3 with $35k base price.

- - - Updated - - -

P85+ window sticker matches whats stated on the order page while the P85D doesn't! CEO claimed increased range, Tesla order page even today states 285 without any disclaimers, the window sticker printed by Tesla (if true) states 242, did they think nobody would notice or care as long as acceleration was insane? While TMC owners understand the calculations arriving at 242, most will not.

For the P85D it says "285 miles range at 65 mph"

 

[JRP3]

P85+ window sticker matches whats stated on the order page while the P85D doesn't! CEO claimed increased range,...

Wasn't that only for the 60D and 85D but not the P85D?

 

[Lump]

For the P85D it says "285 miles range at 65 mph"

I know, shouldn't the CEO, order page & window sticker all state the same number?

 

[MikeC]

Does Mr. Chowdhry have actual facts or is he only speculating as to the meaning of the 242?

It sounds like Mr. Chowdhry has been reading the TMC forum over the past 24 hours, where many of these bullet points were brought up. But it's all speculation, no matter how reasonable. Tesla Motors has not spoken. Have they?

Hey, at least now he's actually getting his info from the forums instead of making things up out of thin air. The picture of the window sticker in his article was taken from the P85D delivery thread.

 

[uselesslogin]

38 kWh per 100 mile = 380kWh per mile. Isn't that a large change from the previous EPA rating on the P85?

Though the 89 mpge sounds the same (I don't have my P85 sticker in front of me). 85kWh for 265 miles ~= 320kWh/mile.

No it is the same. Someone posted a sticker in the other thread. I think 38kWh per 100 miles includes charging loss. The idea being you pay for 38kwh from the wall and only 32kwh ends up in the battery.

 

[RobStark]

I know, shouldn't the CEO, order page & window sticker all state the same number?

Not necessarily. As long as all the numbers are true it gives potential customers better knowledge of the vehicle's range.

EPA cycle. City. Highway. Steady state 55 mph and 65 mph.

- - - Updated - - -

No it is the same. Someone posted a sticker in the other thread. I think 38kWh per 100 miles includes charging loss. The idea being you pay for 38kwh from the wall and only 32kwh ends up in the battery.

The assumption being the typical Model S owner has antiquated electric service/wires/outlet using the the worst performing charging cables.

Losing 5 kWh as heat per 85 kWh that ends up in the battery is more typical.

Akin to assuming S Class owner will fuel up at a gasoline station with leaking gas reservoir, leaking gasoline pump, and will accidentally drop a gallon of gas every time he refuels because sickness or drunkenness.

 

[chickensevil]

Not necessarily. As long as all the numbers are true it gives potential customers better knowledge of the vehicle's range.

EPA cycle. City. Highway. Steady state 55 mph and 65 mph.

Which is always something that I am trying to constantly explain to people I talk to about it anyway... Speed matters. It always has, people just don't think about it with their gas cars, because not only is the range of most of the "commuter" cars 300 or above (generally speaking) but also because they just fill up when it hits the E without really caring about range, because gas stations are everywhere. It is hard to get them to understand the difference between that mindset and filling up every night from your house. The only time you don't start off full is when you are actually road tripping at the superchargers. Anyway, this is nothing new to us (or shouldn't be) but deserves repeated for why there are different numbers thrown around.

The big improvement here is where you were previously feeling the most pain, which was cruising at highway speeds. Also the statement from the CEO was always in reference to the 85D, not the P85D so there is no conflict there, we will have to wait until that sticker shows up finally.

Final point about the stickers, there was no difference in the stickers between the 85s and the P85s, I am looking at my sticker right now (cause I still have it of course) and all the numbers are the same as the one who showed their P85+. Just in case anyone was curious.

- - - Updated - - -

The assumption being the typical Model S owner has antiquated electric service/wires/outlet using the the worst performing charging cables.

Losing 5 kWh as heat per 85 kWh that ends up in the battery is more typical.

Akin to assuming S Class owner will fuel up at a gasoline station with leaking gas reservoir, leaking gasoline pump, and will accidentally drop a gallon of gas every time he refuels because sickness or drunkenness.

More like assuming you are taking that crude oil and refining it yourself (since there are losses there). The way they charge you for electricity, you end up eating that final efficiency loss on the wall plug.... but electricity has always been so cheap that it really didn't matter. I would just lump it into the overall efficiency of the car itself, just like some cars get 20 MPGs and some get 50 MPG, you have efficieny loss that will hopefully get better over time and it will cost you less money per mile.

For me, the way I have always calculated up my real cost has been from the amount of miles driven compared to the number of kWh I have been charged by the company and then dividing the two to see what my true $/mi is. It has always been anywhere from 2 to 3 cents a mile, which is pretty much the difference in a couple dollars a month at most. But that 2 or 3 cents a mile would require a 20MPG performance car to need premium fuel to drop to less than 60 cents a gallon! Good luck saudis, I don't think you can get it that low!

 

[tlo]

Can we just talk for a sec about the fact that Uber has received a $41B valuation? WTF?

Though I'm also astonished by that valuation, Uber is valued based on its very rapid growth in a huge industry, where it is becoming a quasi-monopoly - and its potential to dominate the logistics market more broadly. There is something unique about internet companies and its ability to scale quickly.

As for TSLA, I bought some LEAPs today. They are quite cheap and I can't see TSLA staying below $300 in two years.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

To my mind, it's just the overall cold stream of ominous news that the market only knows to interpret negatively: the dramatic drop in oil prices, the previous divestment by Toyota and Daimler, the public cold shoulder from BMW, the constant noises from VW/Audi about their Tesla killer, which will have long range, long legs, and beautiful eyes, and is coming real soon now, etc. There is a general feeling that Tesla is alone in a hostile world and who knows, maybe they won't be able to pull it off, after all.

The market is having withdrawal symptoms. Tesla investors are addicted to the rush of spectacular news coming every couple of weeks. We want to see green constantly, we want a new ATH every 8 weeks, we want fresh analyst upgrades. Above all, we want Elon to tweet sweetly into our ears. When all that is replaced by longer periods of silence, because, you know, Tesla workers have to wake up every morning and actually build the freaking cars, sentiment drops like blood sugar level after swallowing barrels of ice cream while binging on Elon Musk appearances on YouTube. The market is insecure because it doesn't understand Tesla, nor the other manufacturers' capabilities, nor the unbounded vastness of the addressable market, nor, especially, that Rome wasn't built in a day, so it quickly loses heart ("OMG Tesla hasn't called me in days!!! she doesn't love me!!!!"). It's not yet full-blown panic, but that could happen too, especially since the next earnings report feels so far in the future, it may as well be next century.

Me, I'm a buyer.

I have a similar view that people, especially in the digital age, are increasingly impatient. Impatience means that some market participants will sell TSLA and buy something else because it appears that there is no big item on the horizon to move up share price.

Those who eat the marshmallows now will miss out later.

 

[maoing]

I count 5 P85D entered production today in P85D delivery thread. This is a good sign that P85D production resumes. I think early next week is bound to have a rebounce together with Austraulia delivery news. Simply because 6 straight down day is odd, so the 7th day has much more chance to close green than red.

 

[BlueTan85]

It might also mean the factory didn't put out 1000 cars this week. If it didn't, I wonder what it did produce.