Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[techmaven]

I just hope this forces Tesla's hand to show something or say something they might not have otherwise done. Especially if the FUD piles in full force about the Model 3 being vaporware AND worse that the Bolt... It might force Tesla to show it off sooner rather than later just to show people what a REAL 35k car should look like.

I agree... hence vaporware vs. vaporware. I do hope this forces Tesla to be a bit more forthcoming on both the 3 and the X.

GM has to address a number of things in order to make the Bolt more real, while Tesla has already demonstrated a lot of the basis for the Model 3 even if they haven't shown it. For example, GM/LG hasn't spilled any details on a battery that will get them 200 miles of range, especially with the looks of the Bolt. Would love to see the claimed Cd ratio and the scenario where that vehicle gets 200 miles of range (30 mph?). Tesla, on the other hand, already has multiple 200 mile range BEVs. Tesla already has a fast charger network. Tesla is already building a massive battery factory. Until GM shows where they are getting batteries, more details on the car, and where owners are getting a charge, I'd say the Bolt is still as much vaporware as the Model 3.

 

[aznt1217]

The looks are relatively unimportant... who knows, maybe the Model 3 will go this route too. Unfortunately, we have no real details, not even a cutaway drawing.

As for the market, the sloppy reporting of the $30k sticker means that people assume it undercuts the Model 3. But in reality, it's $37.5k since the $30k price is after the $7,500 federal tax credit. Also, no details on fast charging, battery capacity, or pretty much any real information. So basically, it's vaporware fighting vaporware. They showed a concept car, not even at the level of the Model X prototype.

Precisely this. I didn't see any details on charging standards and the reporting has been pretty sloppy. I wouldn't go as far as saying it's vaporware. I just think it's going to suffer the same auto industry problem that's been prevalent for decades-- the end product is going to be significantly inferior to the concept. A point Tesla has made and said that is something it will never do.

I also think it's going to be interesting because Elon will be in detroit. He typically doesn't attend the auto shows. Chances are these are the reasons why he is there:

1. Another auto conference going on nearby
2. Laws banning Tesla showrooms
3. Pulse check on EV developments after the "all our patents are belong to you event"

I also think people missed the point on the last CC that struck me pretty hard. Tesla Motors has the capability to make a Model 3 TODAY at a lower price point, but the car wouldn't be compelling (to Elon & team standards).

Think about it... these are the elements of a Model 3 today

1. 188 HP/221 HP "Next Gen" motor
2. Traditional braking system
3. Cloth interior parts
4. Smaller infotainment screen
5. 60 KwH battery pack
6. Reduced Chassis size and weight (20-30%)

You'd essentially get a car that gets 200+ miles, with some compromises on performance and creature comforts and it'll STILL be a better car than what GM wants to release in 2017 and what BMW and Nissan have on the road today.

 

[larmor]

Didn't use vapor cash to come back from the brink?

 

[Cattledog]

The looks are relatively unimportant

Sorry, gotta disagree. If our two Model S' looked like that, with EVERYTHING ELSE the same, I wouldn't have bought them. If the Model X looks like that, same story. If the Model 3...you get the picture. Design matters, especially when it's fully integrated with the engineering.

It's the perfect product for GM to put out if you are a TSLA owner - it helps to validate the technology and it's simply not compelling. So the public says, "There's something to this EV thing, but yuck, I don't want that, I want that new Tesla."

Go GM!

 

[v12 to 12v]

Everything I read says the Bolt that is being revealed is just a concept car. We all know what happens to concept cars at auto shows. If they make it to market, they don't seem to have much in common with the concept car. Their launch date is supposed to be 2017.

What really matters is the nuts and bolts of the car, for example, the type of cells, whether it was a BEV designed from the ground up with all the associated benefits, cooling systems, battery management systems, charging systems, charging networks and the number of cars that will really be made available to the public. This car may not even have built in chargers like the Model S. That could be a high priced mission critical item. They need to have a charging network plan at this point in time. I'll be looking for those critical answers, but I think GM is just trying to create buzz at this time and there probably isn't much nailed down. (Or, should I say Bolted)

To top it off, I think that GM has really poor timing for this reveal considering their intended audience with gas prices so low. I hope GM doesn't blow it for BEV's in general. If it fails, then they can go back to their "See, nobody wants them and there is no demand" mantra.

I read from an unreliable source that Tesla is on a press conference schedule for Tuesday the 13th at 4:45pm. I have been scanning schedules and I haven't been able to verify it myself. I hope Elon will Tweet and let us know what to look for.

 

[techmaven]

TSLA stock took a small hit this morning... I was hoping for a far bigger hit. Could be that some think that the other shoe will drop tomorrow and the Bolt isn't all that. Or maybe not.

 

[JRP3]

I'm fairly confident the Bolt concept is just a Volt battery and drivetrain stuck into that vehicle.

 

[aznt1217]

The Bolt News is taking over but... have any of you noticed the new executive rear seat option on the Model S config page?!

 

[ev-enthusiast]

The Bolt News is taking over but... have any of you noticed the new executive rear seat option on the Model S config page?!

Like these amazing rear seats?!

 

[aznt1217]

Like these amazing rear seats?!

View attachment 68973

Going to be great for the Chinese/Executive Market.

 

[Muskol]

I read from an unreliable source that Tesla is on a press conference schedule for Tuesday the 13th at 4:45pm. I have been scanning schedules and I haven't been able to verify it myself. I hope Elon will Tweet and let us know what to look for.

He's speaking at the Automotive News World Congress amongst others:

 

[Soflason]

Some more info about the Chevy Bolt:

http://www.chevrolet.com/culture/art...ncept-car.html

Chevrolet Bolt EV Animation - YouTube

Chevrolet Bolt Interiors B-Roll - YouTube

 

[mibaro2]

+1
I was thinking the same thing...those seats will be a hit with the Chinese market.
Heck, I might have gotten them in my car!

 

[Raffy.Roma]

He's speaking at the Automotive News World Congress amongst others:

So maybe that on Wesdnay things will get better for the stock. :smile:

 

[CyberDutchie]

Yes, the looks might not be that important.
But if you compare the size of the Chevy Bolt and a Model S for example, it becomes obvious that the Bolt is nothing but a tiny Mega City Vehicle (like BMW i3, or Mitsu iMiev).
As far as I know Model 3 will be same size as BMW 3 series or Benz C-Class, thus Model 3 will be bigger than the Chevy Bolt (thus entirely different competition).

I believe Model 3 will compete with BMW 5 series and E-Class as well, just as Model S competes with 7 series and S-Class.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

I believe Model 3 will compete with BMW 5 series and E-Class as well, just as Model S competes with 7 series and S-Class.

Depends on the dimension you compare (torque, aerodynamics, size, wheelbase, ...).
As far as I know, TM said Model 3 should be approx of the same size as a BMW 3-series or a Benz C-class.

 

[chickensevil]

Some more info about the Chevy Bolt:

http://www.chevrolet.com/culture/art...ncept-car.html

Chevrolet Bolt EV Animation - YouTube

Chevrolet Bolt Interiors B-Roll - YouTube

Well, at least the interior looks pretty nice. I do like the clean look (gee wonder where they got that idea from) I can live with the buttons for the AC and such, and that might even be preferable to some since I know some people have had dislike for the lack of buttons to feel for those controls without taking your eyes off the road. Sigh* If only the outside looked just as good. Although they are winning me over with that fantastic Orange! Sadly, I would not be buying this car as long as someone makes a better looking car (which I expect Tesla to do) for the same price.

 

[Maknyuzz]

Hmm.. why haven't we renamed the forum "Praise and Worship Tesla 2014"?

All I see is a everyone blindly praising Tesla, and calling any other product crap. Many of these posts are not contributing anything to this forum. Post something we don't already know. Like I said this endless praise and worship, and hoping for Model X and Model 3 reveal is not a sign of bottom. Hope doesn't move the stock up. Logical thinking and fact does. If you guys can show me the car delivery for Q4 will exceed 11,000 then it's a valid, logical post, otherwise you guys just polluting this forum with something with little value. TMC Investor section has gone shark, full of people who can only say FUD FUD FUD.

Back then luvb2b clearly posted with fact and logical value: that we gonna beat Q1-13, with vin number tracking and math
sleepyhead, DaveT, fluxcap, and many others posted fact that Q4-13 gonna be a big beat, with numbers and math

What I have been reading past few days are:
"Model S so cool, so wow. GM so crap, so eww."
"Hopefully we got Model X and 3 reveal"
"maoing you spreading overly negative rumor"
"FUDster FUDster"


i am putting a small buy order ~200, then 197, then 193. if we breached 193, I think 180 is possible, if we breach 180, I don't know.. All I know is that, delivery tracking shows we're going to miss ~500 cars. The only real promising fact we have is that Q1-15 guidance has potential to be good, since we know delivery wait time is late march, implying Q1 is sold out.

Also, chart & technical is broken, looks like ****.

 

[chickensevil]

Thought I would throw out some screen grabs from the B-Roll that show the important parts:

Unfortunately the battery shows a percentage instead of a rated miles...

 

[techmaven]

Hmm.. why haven't we renamed the forum "Praise and Worship Tesla 2014"?

I hardly think we are frothing here like it was before Q3 2014 when the VIN counting got insane with expectations through the roof.

On the Bolt, I think people that really understand EVs were hoping for more substance. I don't see how GM is going to hit $37,500 and 200 miles of EPA range with the concept car as shown and they really didn't release any underlying data to support their claims. No battery capacity, no efficiency, no mileage testing scenario details, no details on construction methods, and no claims on weight. Basically, all we got was an i3 looking vehicle (but I think it looks much better than an i3 and a Leaf), a claim of $37,500 approximate price, 200 miles of range but unknown circumstances, and fast charge to 80% in 45 minutes (65 kW maybe) but the concept car is missing a SAE type 1 socket. I expected better from GM.

As Chickensevil stated, I hope this spurs Tesla into being a bit more forthcoming and that might be a strong catalyst for the stock.