This is going to be a very volatile week for TSLA. We have the Bolt news followed by a 'owner's only' party with announcements by senior TM people Tuesday. Buckle up as it is not only the 'D' that will be in insane mode this week
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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What's happening on Tuesday? First time I hear of that...
Btw: we just got the first SA article on the Bolt with the title "RIP Tesla".
Yes, I saw that title come up on SA but could not participate in the 'click/bait'
I think Tuesday is when TM is putting on a 'meet and greet' for Michigan owners by invitation only. This will include some announcements...maybe small, maybe big. It is the day before the official 'press day'. If I am mistaken someone please correct me.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Yes, I saw that title come up on SA but could not participate in the 'click/bait'
I think Tuesday is when TM is putting on a 'meet and greet' for Michigan owners by invitation only. This will include some announcements...maybe small, maybe big. It is the day before the official 'press day'. If I am mistaken someone please correct me.
Yup. I never click on anything from SA
TAKEAWAY FOR THE MEDIA: Bolt is not a competitor to Tesla Model 3 (or to BMW 3 series or Audi A4). Model 3 IS a direct competitor to these fine german sedans.
chickensevil
Active Member
Yes, I saw that title come up on SA but could not participate in the 'click/bait'
I think Tuesday is when TM is putting on a 'meet and greet' for Michigan owners by invitation only. This will include some announcements...maybe small, maybe big. It is the day before the official 'press day'. If I am mistaken someone please correct me.
Other than the click bait title there was some decent things posted in the article... Namely, this isn't news to anyone paying attention. Although you aren't missing much by not reading it.
This is just the first we are finally going to get to see the Bolt so we can really see what it is trying to compete with. There is also still no sign of a real supercharger-type network... but maybe GM will announce such an endeavor this week? If not then I am really not worried about anything. What this car is likely to take away from is other ICE sales more than it is likely to strip away from Model 3 sales. That is because these two cars are very likely targeted to two different audiences. The Bolt will be a styling and interior and such geared toward the sub-compact el-cheapo market whereas the Model 3 will be geared toward the mid-size luxury market. The fact that the GM car is overpriced for the target market it is built for doesn't help their case. This is all assumptions of course, they could very well be making this a mid-size luxury... but I am not holding my breath.
I think the Bolt is good news. Toyota is placing big begs on FCV. GM betting on EV is really good. Letting two titans go at the standards debate. If the price dips its going to be an awesome buying opportunity. I hate to say it but the only good car in the GM line up is the new corvette.
It'll be good to know the charging technology and what infrastructures would be needed.
It'll be good to know the charging technology and what infrastructures would be needed.
chickensevil
Active Member
Picture is not new... same old picture that has always been at the top of the page... sadly...
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GM has a decent investment into FCV as well, if I am not mistaken. But otherwise yes, it is nice to see someone saying they are coming out with a 200 mile car that isn't a Tesla.
I doubt it's a mid size luxury car very much. I know GM does more premium cars too (though, not in Europe, here they only have the mass market image), but there is no way they could do that at this price. Why, you ask? The batteries! Even if LG or Samsung managed to cook up something for them that can really fit 200 miles of range into the pack (40-45kWh?) they will not be able to produce in volumes big enough to get the price down. Tesla/Panasonic build more battery packs than anyone else, use more cells than anyone else and still need to GF's volumes to get there. So that means with a 30k car, say 25k BOM, 10k for the pack you have 15k to build a luxury car. (Totally WAG numbers, feel free to guess better).
So if it is a "normal" C-D segment vehicle for 30-35k, and you can buy a premium brand, BMW 3 series performance level EV from Tesla, with the SC network included, for practically the same money, which one do you pick Mr. Customer?
I'll start to worry when we have a joint announcement by LG Chem, that they are building a 5Bn dollar factory too. (Ok, probably not even then).
Nevertheless, this could mean some rough waters for TSLA next week depending on media reaction.
jhm
Well-Known Member
"Owners only" is intriguing. What sort of announcement would be suitable to owners only? It seems this would rule out any Model X announcements since Model X reservation holders should be invited for that. Autopilot announcements would be of greater relevance to recent Model S cars with AP sensors.
So I am thinking that some sort of range enhancement upgrade for the Model S is possible, some sort of package like the Roadster 2.0. Such a package could include lighter batteries, high efficiency tires, range enhancing software upgrade, aerodynamics treatment.
Less ambitious would be something about expanding Supercharging or battery swap stations.
What else might it be?
The Bolt is purely going to be a compliance car as a replacement for the Spark EV. It will primarily be targeted for the Chinese market. Local assembly is a must to take advantage of Govt incentives in China. GM has 6 plants in China with 5 more coming soon. LG Chem has recently setup a battery plant in China to supply EVs made in China. GM sold 3.54 million cars in China for 2014 and is among the largest. They have the most to lose if the Govt or consumers shift to EVs.
For the US market, a 200 mile BEV will get them 4 ZEV credits. GM would have to pay a $5000 fine for every credit they are short or pay a similar amount to buy from a competitor who has got excess credits to sell. In theory they can sell a $50,000 car for $30,000 and still come out ahead. You don't have to pay a fine to CARB, you can sell more profitable pickup trucks, you gain a sale now and you deny a sale to your competitor. The Volt and ELR do not qualify for ZEV credits. A 50 mile AER is the minimum. GM bought 850 credits in 2013. After they started selling the Spark EV, they only had to buy 4 credits in 2014. Each spark ev was only worth 2.5 credits. With automakers needing more credits going forward and a 200 mile range is the point where EVs receive higher consideration, GM is reluctantly entering the EV market. Dragged in kicking and screaming due to compliance regulations.
If GM really cared, they would be building their own gigafactory by now. After all $5B for a gigafactory is only 1/64th their yearly revenue. Selling a premium products is not that big of a problem. Excluding premium brands like Buick GMC and Cadillac, Chevrolet sells the most number of vehicles in the US over $50,000. GM sells more pickups alone over $50,000 than most luxury brands not to mention $60,000 Tahoes/Suburbans and Corvettes.
Tesla has nothing to worry about and even the Bolt is significantly better than the Model 3 (unlikely), GM will only sell the bare minimum(1800 a year), just so that can sell more full size suvs. Cheap gas prices = more pickup/suv sales = more BEVs need to be sold to offset them.
For the US market, a 200 mile BEV will get them 4 ZEV credits. GM would have to pay a $5000 fine for every credit they are short or pay a similar amount to buy from a competitor who has got excess credits to sell. In theory they can sell a $50,000 car for $30,000 and still come out ahead. You don't have to pay a fine to CARB, you can sell more profitable pickup trucks, you gain a sale now and you deny a sale to your competitor. The Volt and ELR do not qualify for ZEV credits. A 50 mile AER is the minimum. GM bought 850 credits in 2013. After they started selling the Spark EV, they only had to buy 4 credits in 2014. Each spark ev was only worth 2.5 credits. With automakers needing more credits going forward and a 200 mile range is the point where EVs receive higher consideration, GM is reluctantly entering the EV market. Dragged in kicking and screaming due to compliance regulations.
If GM really cared, they would be building their own gigafactory by now. After all $5B for a gigafactory is only 1/64th their yearly revenue. Selling a premium products is not that big of a problem. Excluding premium brands like Buick GMC and Cadillac, Chevrolet sells the most number of vehicles in the US over $50,000. GM sells more pickups alone over $50,000 than most luxury brands not to mention $60,000 Tahoes/Suburbans and Corvettes.
Tesla has nothing to worry about and even the Bolt is significantly better than the Model 3 (unlikely), GM will only sell the bare minimum(1800 a year), just so that can sell more full size suvs. Cheap gas prices = more pickup/suv sales = more BEVs need to be sold to offset them.
NigelM
Recovering Member
Nobody on this thread should get excited about an owners party; Tesla often does this when Elon (or other senior manager) is around and has time, it's a good way to get feedback and it's usually nice, motivating small-talk.....That's not the place where any announcements will be made.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
USA Today is reporting Bolt $30k-$35k after federal incentives.
"The Bolt would be priced in the $30,000 to $35,000 range after incentives, including a $7,500 federal tax credit, sources say, confirming details first reported Friday night by the Wall Street Journal.
"http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/01/11/gm-chevrolet-bolt-tesla/21595233/
"The Bolt would be priced in the $30,000 to $35,000 range after incentives, including a $7,500 federal tax credit, sources say, confirming details first reported Friday night by the Wall Street Journal.
"http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2015/01/11/gm-chevrolet-bolt-tesla/21595233/
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I'm inclined to see this as just a compliance car too. It needs to be close enough to the Model 3 specs just to be able to sell it, once M3 comes out. What would be particularly telling would be if it is only marketed in ZEV states.
However, if Tesla is selling sufficient numbers of cars in ZEV states, then they can supply the industry with ZEV credits. So the cost of a ZEV credit could be considerably less than $5000. Of course, if Tesla is the only seller of ZEV credits at that time, they could pretty much ask full price for them. So I guess GM would not want to be stuck in that position. I do wonder if Nissan will still be able to sell ZEV credits past 2018. The current LEAF won't cut it by that time, and Nissan is burning through their allotment of US $7500 tax credits for EV buyers. So Nissan really needs to get serious about building an EV that will survive the loss of the tax credits. My view is that when the time comes Models S and X could get a small price cut and Model 3 won't need a tax break at all. So I'm not worried about Tesla, but Nissan seems to really be squandering the tax credit with no vision for the future. Maybe that's why GM needs to step in.
jhm
Well-Known Member
BMW Charges into Tesla Territory with Mobile Storage Program - The Green Optimistic
Ok, this is a good application, but $1000 per month to allow PG&E not to charge your i3 at peak times, I want that deal! Somebody tell me that is a typo.
Ok, this is a good application, but $1000 per month to allow PG&E not to charge your i3 at peak times, I want that deal! Somebody tell me that is a typo.
All of these are really interesting developments.
The business case for electric vehicles are getting a big boost. I wouldn't quite count GM as just building compliance cars only. I'll agree and say that it's going to be a significantly less compelling car versus the model 3. I also think GM is spending a lot of energy trying to rebuild the tarnished brand. Furthermore, on the engineering front nothing beats Tesla Motors at the moment. They have the top talent and organization structure that moves at a rapid fire pace versus that of GM's. The one advantage GM has though is a warchest of cash... although this was a different story just a few years ago. I think the management team at Tesla is extremely pleased because competitors are just starting to say "OK electric cars are not vaporware anymore... perhaps we should START." I think once the Model 3 is released it's very possible that a company like VW would acquire Tesla Motors for an extremely nice price. That seems to be their approach-- become the biggest automaker in the world via acquisition.
The auto show will be interesting and there may be FUD heralding the Chevy Bolt as the greatest invention after sliced bread, but Tesla Motors' business hasn't changed. I think we'll see that in the coming weeks with NAIAS and the investor road shows. The next catalysts for TSLA are going to 2015 guidance, GF progression, and the Model X reveal. Tesla's story is still the same, but unfortunately so are its problems (which the FUDsters like to magnify).
The business case for electric vehicles are getting a big boost. I wouldn't quite count GM as just building compliance cars only. I'll agree and say that it's going to be a significantly less compelling car versus the model 3. I also think GM is spending a lot of energy trying to rebuild the tarnished brand. Furthermore, on the engineering front nothing beats Tesla Motors at the moment. They have the top talent and organization structure that moves at a rapid fire pace versus that of GM's. The one advantage GM has though is a warchest of cash... although this was a different story just a few years ago. I think the management team at Tesla is extremely pleased because competitors are just starting to say "OK electric cars are not vaporware anymore... perhaps we should START." I think once the Model 3 is released it's very possible that a company like VW would acquire Tesla Motors for an extremely nice price. That seems to be their approach-- become the biggest automaker in the world via acquisition.
The auto show will be interesting and there may be FUD heralding the Chevy Bolt as the greatest invention after sliced bread, but Tesla Motors' business hasn't changed. I think we'll see that in the coming weeks with NAIAS and the investor road shows. The next catalysts for TSLA are going to 2015 guidance, GF progression, and the Model X reveal. Tesla's story is still the same, but unfortunately so are its problems (which the FUDsters like to magnify).
CyberDutchie
Active Member
Tesla killer? Give me a break! Why is there so little respect for Tesla Motors in the automotive world? Tesla should be recognized for what they've achieved. Watching the Golden Globes, I was thinking: why isn't there a similar event for automotive design and engineering (versus movies) where Tesla can get awarded and recognized by peers for their contribution to automotive transportation.
MartinAustin
Active Member
I found that article to be a terrible hatchet job on Tesla Motors and Elon Musk, sort of clutching at straws, honestly. Surprised he didn't carry over some old Martin Eberhard complaints from pre-2008.
They even avoid putting things to perspective. For example, they state that Tesla has fallen 10% over the last 3 months while GM has climbed during the same period. Well... sure. But over the last 6 months their stock performance has been identical, and over the last 12 months, TSLA grew 41% while GM fell 11%. Funny what perspective can give you... but the WSJ decides to omit the pro-TSLA information.
The article is peppered with weird journalistic mis-steps like that.
new WSJ piece with more on new Volt (you can Google: GM’s Plan to Gain on Tesla Rides on Two Electric Cars)
Looks like they did nicely with Volt range going to 50 miles.
WSJ put in some very misleading comparisons... $30K for Bolt, $35K for Model 3 with no mention that Bolt number is net of tax credit while Model 3 is not (though we don't have official word from GM that this is the case), and 500K electrified vehicles for GM in 2017 vs. 500K electric vehicles for Tesla by 2020 without any mention that the vast majority of those "electrified" GM vehicles would simply hybrids without any pure EV driving range and only modestly improving mpg .
Looks like they did nicely with Volt range going to 50 miles.
WSJ put in some very misleading comparisons... $30K for Bolt, $35K for Model 3 with no mention that Bolt number is net of tax credit while Model 3 is not (though we don't have official word from GM that this is the case), and 500K electrified vehicles for GM in 2017 vs. 500K electric vehicles for Tesla by 2020 without any mention that the vast majority of those "electrified" GM vehicles would simply hybrids without any pure EV driving range and only modestly improving mpg .
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