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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

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#13,863
anticitizen13.7 said:
This does not surprise me at all. I have 2 possible explanations (both of which may be in effect) for this:

(1) I observed in the Model S and Model X sub-forums several people who were on the fence and did not want to order a Model S until they knew what Model X had to offer. As the products are presently sold, Model S actually has more utility than Model X when it comes to hauling large items inside, while Model X is the better "people mover". With knowledge in head, people could feel confident in making a purchasing decision.

(2) The Model X event generated an enormous amount of mainstream press for Tesla (free advertising). This might have gotten new people to look at Tesla's website and decide to place an order for the Model S, which will be delivered much sooner than a Model X.
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I think this works out perfectly! As the Model X gets out in the general public it will grow nicely. This is frankly the best direction we could hope for. Model S stabilized, Model X grows equally with production ramp up. Man, these Tesla people are scary sharp. I would really hate to be any other manufacturer today.
 
#13,866
jigar said:
The 2000 $ (1000 + 1000) referral program should definitely help with the Q3 delivery numbers.
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Seems reasonable that the referral program lead to more Model S orders. Regarding Q3 production and deliveries, it's my view that tesla never reached a point where production actually exceed their order book. In other words, tesla remained production constrained during Q3. Evidence of this is tesla's stated lead times for delivery on the tesla motors website. Various folks here on TMC track tesla's stated delivery lead-times to all the countries in the world.

Clearly moving foward into 2016, tesla will remain production constrained due to the MX order book. Furthermore, it won't surprise me if tesla completely sells out 2016 production capacity pretty early into 2016
 
#13,867
FredTMC said:
Seems reasonable that the referral program lead to more Model S orders. Regarding Q3 production and deliveries, it's my view that tesla never reached a point where production actually exceed their order book. In other words, tesla remained production constrained during Q3. Evidence of this is tesla's stated lead times for delivery on the tesla motors website. Various folks here on TMC track tesla's stated delivery lead-times to all the countries in the world.

Clearly moving foward into 2016, tesla will remain production constrained due to the MX order book. Furthermore, it won't surprise me if tesla completely sells out 2016 production capacity pretty early into 2016
Click to expand...

If this is accurate, I must say, what a delicate and perfectly executed plan.
 
#13,868
FredTMC said:
Seems reasonable that the referral program lead to more Model S orders. Regarding Q3 production and deliveries, it's my view that tesla never reached a point where production actually exceed their order book. In other words, tesla remained production constrained during Q3. Evidence of this is tesla's stated lead times for delivery on the tesla motors website. Various folks here on TMC track tesla's stated delivery lead-times to all the countries in the world.

Clearly moving foward into 2016, tesla will remain production constrained due to the MX order book. Furthermore, it won't surprise me if tesla completely sells out 2016 production capacity pretty early into 2016
Click to expand...

We should keep in mind though, that production has not been increased anywhere close to the 2000/week, as mentioned in Q3 2014 shareholder letter:

"To accommodate accelerating Model S demand and prepare for the rapidly growing order book of Model X reservations, we are investing to increase production to more than 2,000 vehicles per week by the end of 2015. We began this process with a production shutdown this summer to transition to our new, higher volume final assembly line and expand our Model S body center. The ramp to our target production rate took longer than expected due to system integration challenges, reducing our production by almost 2,000 vehicles. Being unable to increase production fast enough, not lack of demand, is a fair criticism of Tesla. That said, we expect our annual production will increase by over 50% in 2014, again in 2015 and probably for several years to follow. This is unusual in the car industry."
 
#13,869
mmd said:
We should keep in mind though, that production has not been increased anywhere close to the 2000/week, as mentioned in Q3 2014 shareholder letter:

"To accommodate accelerating Model S demand and prepare for the rapidly growing order book of Model X reservations, we are investing to increase production to more than 2,000 vehicles per week by the end of 2015. We began this process with a production shutdown this summer to transition to our new, higher volume final assembly line and expand our Model S body center. The ramp to our target production rate took longer than expected due to system integration challenges, reducing our production by almost 2,000 vehicles. Being unable to increase production fast enough, not lack of demand, is a fair criticism of Tesla. That said, we expect our annual production will increase by over 50% in 2014, again in 2015 and probably for several years to follow. This is unusual in the car industry."
Click to expand...

Thx. You are citing old Q3 2014 ER numbers. We have newer production guidance from the last ER for Q2 2015.

In the "outlook" section: Looking ahead to next year, we are highly confident of a steady state production and demand of 1,600 to 1,800 vehicles perweek combined for Model S and Model X.


Cheers
 
#13,871
mejojo said:
0) Fred TMC's note

1) What is the current production rate?

2) Is it the end of 2015 yet?
Click to expand...

Good points. So, this new projection for 2016 seems a slight reduction from the 2000/week projected in Q3 of 2014. I think, the current production is about 1000/week (~12,000 guidance for Q3'15). The questions are:
1) Did the shutdown last year increase capacity close to 2000/week? If so, then is there unused capacity right now, so demand and production are in steady state?
2) If the Model X ramp-up is slower, can the unused capacity (of even the reduced guidance of1600-1800/week) be used up by Model S production?

We will know next month, see what the guidance for Q4 will be. The revised guidance from Q2'15 sounds more reasonable. Tesla is managing production rate to match demand rate. I won't call this "production constrained" though :)

Cheers!
 
#13,872
mmd said:
Good points. So, this new projection for 2016 seems a slight reduction from the 2000/week projected in Q3 of 2014. I think, the current production is about 1000/week (~12,000 guidance for Q3'15). The questions are:
1) Did the shutdown last year increase capacity close to 2000/week? If so, then is there unused capacity right now, so demand and production are in steady state?
2) If the Model X ramp-up is slower, can the unused capacity (of even the reduced guidance of1600-1800/week) be used up by Model S production?

We will know next month, see what the guidance for Q4 will be. The revised guidance from Q2'15 sounds more reasonable. Tesla is managing production rate to match demand rate. I won't call this "production constrained" though :)

Cheers!
Click to expand...

we will know what the avg production rate was for Q3 in the next day or so. Tesla committed to releasing delivery numbers (and production) within 3 days of the end of each quarter. Three calendar day would be by tomorrow. Last quarter they released the numbers on July 2nd
 
#13,874
doggusfluffy said:
So it's looking like AH release. Worth trying to buy some calls for a Monday open?
Click to expand...
So that's the thing... companies usually release bad news on Friday AH so things can cool down a bit over the weekend, right? And then there is the probable delivery decrease in Europe... but then again teher was absolutely zero indication of a manufacturing issue in Q3, they have a backlog you can see from the moon, the customer deposits always keeps growing in the ERs so that supports the backlog claims... I am torn.

Anyway, may be a storm in a cup. Could simply be Elon needs to/wants to sign off on these things and he was busy with that NASDAQ thing on clean energy today. Could be as simple as that.
 
#13,875
doggusfluffy said:
So it's looking like AH release. Worth trying to buy some calls for a Monday open?
Click to expand...


I bought a 2015 used 70D Model S instead. 1500 miles, Midnight Silver with grey seats, 21" silver wheels, Pano roof, and of course AutoPilot enabled! Not a bargain but fair at $75k. Pick it up Tuesday from a Mercedes Dealer. Maybe my calls will turn around to help pay for it. It will be nice to get back in the saddle again! Haven't had one for over a year now.
 
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