mejojo
Active Member
That question could be restated as "how much longer will it take for Line 2 to be a productive element of the factory"?
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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015
- Thread starter Robert.Boston
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That question could be restated as "how much longer will it take for Line 2 to be a productive element of the factory"?
That's definitely a tall order. Unless MS production is able to ramp up quite a bit, or MX is able to ramp extremely quickly (still no sig deliver date confirmations as far as I know), we'll be at the low end or even missing that 50k for the year.
Perhaps I mis-understood something, but wasn't line 1 completely shut down, and now line 2 is all of production but it's designed to be flexible MS or MX? And that line 2 has already been successfully up and running?
What's a ton? If S sales are flat in Q4, then X has to make up 4000 if I'm doing the math correctly.
It all depends on how well Tesla is doing on production side. We know as of today that S demand went up due to X launch. So it doesn't even matter if X ramp up is slow. The question really is can they make many more Ss, which logically speaking should be possible.
My gut reaction was, no Tesla can't make it. But logically thinking through it, I come to the opposite conclusion.
Yep, but just to be precise, they delivered 11,532 cars in Q2 and guided for "approximately the same" for Q3. So technically they had a small beat.
Ok so this means: Q1 + Q2 + Q3 = 10,045 + 11,532 + 11,580 = 33,157 cars so far. 16843 more to go to meet minimum guidance. So roughly 15k Model S and 2k Model X if they get out all the sigs and a few more.
According to timeanddate.com there are 61 work days in California this Q4, so that means a weekly run rate of 1380 cars (delivered!), or 276 per day. Given that they have claimed the theoretical limit of the new enhanced production line(s) is 2k per week and they target an actual run rate of 1,600-1,800 next year, 1400ish sounds doable if ambitious.
Also, for comparison, Q3 had 64 work days - minus the 1 week of scheduled shut down and the power-outage-Friday, it ended up with 58 work days.
ludicrousspeed
Member
Why are you assuming constant model S sales for the next quarter? Last year Tesla increased Model S sales over 26% from 3Q to 4Q.
hockeythug
Active Member
I'm sure production increased but was being conservative. Depends on what the sequential production growth was between 2Q and 3Q. 1Q to 2Q was 15%. They have their new fancy paint shop and 500 some new robots working in place now though.
Fantastic summary & analysis there. Thanks, mrdoubleb.
I am hopeful this logistical feat can be pulled off in Q4, but there are a whole lot of moving pieces on the chessboard that have to be synchronized really, really well for this to happen. We shall see!
Thanks for this! and thanks for the figures as well. Sounds good to me.
nice weekend, too
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Today we have seen that there was enough demand during Q3 to excede Q3 guidance despite first issues during Model X ramp in stamping and body in white.
From Elon Musk tweet earlier today we know that demand for Model S grew significantly after Model X Fouders first deliveries.
We know about that Model X backlog that can be seen from the moon.
And we know people paid real money for their reservation.
Thus we know today that there is enough demand for Q4 and a longer time horizon.
It all depends on the Model S and Model X combined production.
BTW Model S only production during Q2 was 12,807 vehicles, personally I expect this number to have grown a bit in Q3.
From that base of 12,807 vehicles they do not need to produce that many Model X, I think.
If Model X ramp is not steep enough, more Model S will be produced in stamping, body in white, assembly line, and so on.
Please remember, no interference in stamping, body in white, and even assembly line, as there are two.
This is valid, solid and important info, great!
From Elon Musk tweet earlier today we know that demand for Model S grew significantly after Model X Fouders first deliveries.
We know about that Model X backlog that can be seen from the moon.
And we know people paid real money for their reservation.
Thus we know today that there is enough demand for Q4 and a longer time horizon.
It all depends on the Model S and Model X combined production.
BTW Model S only production during Q2 was 12,807 vehicles, personally I expect this number to have grown a bit in Q3.
From that base of 12,807 vehicles they do not need to produce that many Model X, I think.
If Model X ramp is not steep enough, more Model S will be produced in stamping, body in white, assembly line, and so on.
Please remember, no interference in stamping, body in white, and even assembly line, as there are two.
This is valid, solid and important info, great!
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That's a good point. Q4 seems to have a sequential spike because of tax ramifications. Even assuming a 25% sequential increase from Q3 to Q4 still implies about 2000 X deliveries. More than the total Signature orders. That means that non-Sigs need to start configuring soon.
Electrifying
Member
Not sure if this has been mentioned. http://qz.com/515610/elon-musk-wants-to-scare-women-from-buying-any-suv-besides-his-tesla-model-x/
Elon Musk wants to scare women from buying any SUV besides his Tesla Model X
Some people thought the model X reveal was goofy, but it's actually pretty smart from this point of view.Maybe someone else said this, but it is plausible that model S could sell 16k units just due to the "reverse-Osbourning" effect. Now that the X is released there could easily be enough fence-sitters who realize they can pass on the X to have unusually high model S demand.
sub
Active Member
We won't know the exact numbers until the earnings call. It's possible they produced 13-14k this quarter and didn't bother rushing to deliver them. This would make the leap in production numbers much smaller and getting all the cars out to customers in Q4 the focus. Elon should have a good feeling on the outcome by the earnings call.
Perfectlogic
Member
What tweet from Elon are you talking about?
With two cars now competing for the customers I think S demand will go down a bit in the coming quarters, so Tesla might not be able to just produce more S's if the X ramp isn't steep enough to meet the 50k (I don't even think the high end of the guidance is relevant anymore). I do believe it is likely for Tesla to meet the 50k mark, but I see a higher chance of 49k than 51k deliveries. I think media focus next week will be speculation on whether Tesla's yearly guidance will be met or not which I think will put SP under pressure.
ev-enthusiast
Active Member
Could this be the beginning of a multi day swing up to $270 of $280 again, like some weeks ago?
I could imagine some shorts expected a big delivery miss by 1000 to 2000 vehicles because of lack of demand?!
Just take a look and compare Tesla Motors sales figures with the poor sales performance of Leaf and Volt sales this year (sorry to say that as I like all EVs), sad story.
I could imagine some shorts expected a big delivery miss by 1000 to 2000 vehicles because of lack of demand?!
Just take a look and compare Tesla Motors sales figures with the poor sales performance of Leaf and Volt sales this year (sorry to say that as I like all EVs), sad story.
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