Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[chickensevil]

Smart ED is a two seater. A lot of people (like me) won't buy it no matter what it costs. BMW i3 is a 4 seater, and much closer to meeting more people's needs. More BMW i3 are sold with the REX than without. The REX allows long distance travel with fast refills, while driving pure electric most of the time. It doesn't matter what we say here. BMW i3 is selling in decent volumes too.
EV Sales: World Top 10 September 2015 (Updated)
Worldwide position: Tesla no. 2 with 32995 sales, BMW i3 no. 5 with 18040 sales

If selling well is 18k then we have different opinions on selling well. Unless this is a high end car for over 80k then 18k is pitiful numbers. That's the problem with all current "competition"... None of them sell remotely well for their price category. They should be blowing past 100k in a year without even trying. Hence the comments about the smart electric. There is nothing special about the i3... Sadly I wish this weren't the case.

 

[sub]

I have an i3, I refer to it as the clown car. It is no Tesla, I did a 2 year lease to get me closer to the model 3 or I may buy an S/X before then. I would never pay 50k to buy the crippled i3.

I also have a BMW 335D, I would much rather have a 335 ev over the i3. The i3 is terrible at speed, wanders all over the place due to its short wheel base and light weight I'm assuming and only seats 4. Model 3 that targets the 3 series will sell more than they can make, an i3 like model 3 could be the end of Tesla.

 

[Scott Ales]

I have an i3, I refer to it as the clown car. It is no Tesla, I did a 2 year lease to get me closer to the model 3 or I may buy an S/X before then. I would never pay 50k to buy the crippled i3.

I also have a BMW 335D, I would much rather have a 335 ev over the i3. The i3 is terrible at speed, wanders all over the place due to its short wheel base and light weight I'm assuming and only seats 4. Model 3 that targets the 3 series will sell more than they can make, an i3 like model 3 could be the end of Tesla.

All of the "End of Tesla" commentary across the board overlooks one very important detail.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/04/are-millennials-making-good-choices-with-stocks.html

Even if someone creates a Tesla "Killer", they also must convince the Millennials their company is worth investing in. It's not just about the product which I think is one reason EM is so cavalier about others moving into the EV space and providing patents for competition. I can speak from very significant and direct experience that the entire acquisition process was designed for the next generation, not us old geezers! We're dying off and the new money wants a different car acquisition / ownership experience. How in the world can the old entrenched companies re-invent themselves to provide a similar experience to Tesla? Not impossible, but just creating a competitive product isn't enough.

For me, it starts with the leadership. When you listen to EM discuss his personal efforts and the mission of the company I find it incredibly refreshing. So much so that I will go out of my way to assist the effort. Who wants to be on a team that wins? Everyone I know. If someone is not at least willing to champion the cause or contribute something to advance the extinction of fossil fuel use I question their motives. The 30,000' view clearly puts the electrification of the world in first place.

All opinion based comments.

 

[Julian Cox]

I have an i3, I refer to it as the clown car. It is no Tesla, I did a 2 year lease to get me closer to the model 3 or I may buy an S/X before then. I would never pay 50k to buy the crippled i3.

I also have a BMW 335D, I would much rather have a 335 ev over the i3. The i3 is terrible at speed, wanders all over the place due to its short wheel base and light weight I'm assuming and only seats 4. Model 3 that targets the 3 series will sell more than they can make, an i3 like model 3 could be the end of Tesla.

Elon Musk has gone on record for the first time at the Barons conference (towards end of webcast in Q&A) to state that the Model 3 will have the driving feel, performance and road-holding familiar to Model S drivers. Lots of excellent color too about Gigafactory cost reductions and security of technological lead with regards to batteries. free webcast registration Baron 2015 Investment Conference - 1077285

So to the implied question, it is confirmed that the Tesla Model 3 is no BMW i3.

 

[dalalsid]

"having worked in the industry" .... "internet expertise"

Well, first off, you don't know the backgrounds of the people posting their messages, just like we don't know your background. Anyone can make a claim... I could say I am the President of the United States. Who are you know know if I really am Obama or not? It would be that little thing that I asked for called "Data" that would solidify your claims of knowing how an industry works and that Tesla can or can not meet their own stated claims. You saying: "I worked in the industry therefore I know..." is meaningless.

Actually working in the industry makes ones opinions about Tesla worse for two reasons:

1. Nobody else has yet to exceed Tesla's ev range yet so they are either unable or unwilling
2. This causes a natural bias against Tesla's achievements.

This is exactly like people in "the industry" calling the iPhone a toy. And whatever suppliers cannot do Tesla does. For everyone else whatever suppliers cannot do, cannot be done.

 

[Scott Ales]

Actually working in the industry makes ones opinions about Tesla worse for two reasons:

1. Nobody else has yet to exceed Tesla's ev range yet so they are either unable or unwilling
2. This causes a natural bias against Tesla's achievements.

This is exactly like people in "the industry" calling the iPhone a toy. And whatever suppliers cannot do Tesla does. For everyone else whatever suppliers cannot do, cannot be done.

Generally speaking your statements are correct. But not absolute. I have been an industry insider on the sales and re-marketing side of the automotive industry for 30+ years. My name on this forum is my user name and on every other forum online. You can verify who I am by name through property tax records, google maps, LinkedIn, and various other personal and business interests. Bank board member at First Green Bank, former (controversial) mayor and commissioner of my current residence, Eustis, Fl., and various other groups / associations.

And, I am a Tesla supporter and Bull investor. Somewhat of a contrarian I suppose.

Oh yeah, I'm a sinner too. But I am working on that one!

 

[electracity]

Actually working in the industry makes ones opinions about Tesla worse for two reasons:

1. Nobody else has yet to exceed Tesla's ev range yet so they are either unable or unwilling
2. This causes a natural bias against Tesla's achievements.

This is exactly like people in "the industry" calling the iPhone a toy. And whatever suppliers cannot do Tesla does. For everyone else whatever suppliers cannot do, cannot be done.

I don't work in the auto industry, but i did work in GM manufacturing when young.

 

[sub]

Elon Musk has gone on record for the first time at the Barons conference (towards end of webcast in Q&A) to state that the Model 3 will have the driving feel, performance and road-holding familiar to Model S drivers. Lots of excellent color too about Gigafactory cost reductions and security of technological lead with regards to batteries. free webcast registration Baron 2015 Investment Conference - 1077285

So to the implied question, it is confirmed that the Tesla Model 3 is no BMW i3.

the point of my post was to point out how I dislike the i3, not to suggest they Tesla would make anything like the i3. I'm very confident Tesla will make the model 3 as nice and desirable (in its price range) as the model S/X.

 

[Causalien]

I don't work in the auto industry, but i did work in GM manufacturing when young.

... I do not think you can claim insider knowledge on this forum unless you are C level exec of an manufacturng or another sometime in your life. Cause that's the type of knowledge most insiders on this forum have.

 

[MitchJi]

Even if someone creates a Tesla "Killer", they also must convince the Millennials their company is worth investing in.

The concept of a "Tesla Killer" is absurd.

1. The world is transitioning to EV's. The question isn't which traditional OEM(s) are going to build a "Tesla Killer". The question is how many traditional OEM's are going survive.

2. Why don't new models from GM, Toyota, Honda, BMW kill each other? Because the overall market is huge. Clearly the market for EV's is big enough for Tesla to sell at least 500k cars per year (which is more than they need to be successful) and at the same time 500k Leaf's plus 500k Bolts etc.

 

[Drax7]

All of the "End of Tesla" commentary across the board overlooks one very important detail.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/04/are-millennials-making-good-choices-with-stocks.html

Even if someone creates a Tesla "Killer", they also must convince the Millennials their company is worth investing in. It's not just about the product which I think is one reason EM is so cavalier about others moving into the EV space and providing patents for competition. I can speak from very significant and direct experience that the entire acquisition process was designed for the next generation, not us old geezers! We're dying off and the new money wants a different car acquisition / ownership experience. How in the world can the old entrenched companies re-invent themselves to provide a similar experience to Tesla? Not impossible, but just creating a competitive product isn't enough.

For me, it starts with the leadership. When you listen to EM discuss his personal efforts and the mission of the company I find it incredibly refreshing. So much so that I will go out of my way to assist the effort. Who wants to be on a team that wins? Everyone I know. If someone is not at least willing to champion the cause or contribute something to advance the extinction of fossil fuel use I question their motives. The 30,000' view clearly puts the electrification of the world in first place.

All opinion based comments.

Nice very nice.

 

[electracity]

... I do not think you can claim insider knowledge on this forum unless you are C level exec of an manufacturng or another sometime in your life. Cause that's the type of knowledge most insiders on this forum have.

Good one.

 

[madodel]

Generally speaking your statements are correct. But not absolute. I have been an industry insider on the sales and re-marketing side of the automotive industry for 30+ years. My name on this forum is my user name and on every other forum online. You can verify who I am by name through property tax records, google maps, LinkedIn, and various other personal and business interests. Bank board member at First Green Bank, former (controversial) mayor and commissioner of my current residence, Eustis, Fl., and various other groups / associations.

And, I am a Tesla supporter and Bull investor. Somewhat of a contrarian I suppose.

Oh yeah, I'm a sinner too. But I am working on that one!

The concept of a "Tesla Killer" is absurd.

1. The world is transitioning to EV's. The question isn't which traditional OEM(s) are going to build a "Tesla Killer". The question is how many traditional OEM's are going survive.

2. Why don't new models from GM, Toyota, Honda, BMW kill each other? Because the overall market is huge. Clearly the market for EV's is big enough for Tesla to sell at least 500k cars per year (which is more than they need to be successful) and at the same time 500k Leaf's plus 500k Bolts etc.

+1,000

 

[sundaymorning]

Electracity, go ahead and buy BMW, forget tesla. Do what makes you happy .

Electracity is a diehard BMW fan, so what's a diehard BMW fan doing on a Tesla forum? This tells me that Tesla is doing all the right things. You'll never see me on a BMW or Mercedes forum, even though I my views of those cars are quite clownish, I wouldn't bother wasting my valuable time clowning on clowns.

 

[madodel]

Generally speaking your statements are correct. But not absolute. I have been an industry insider on the sales and re-marketing side of the automotive industry for 30+ years. My name on this forum is my user name and on every other forum online. You can verify who I am by name through property tax records, google maps, LinkedIn, and various other personal and business interests. Bank board member at First Green Bank, former (controversial) mayor and commissioner of my current residence, Eustis, Fl., and various other groups / associations.

And, I am a Tesla supporter and Bull investor. Somewhat of a contrarian I suppose.

Oh yeah, I'm a sinner too. But I am working on that one!

Electracity is a diehard BMW fan, so what's a diehard BMW fan doing on a Tesla forum? This tells me that Tesla is doing all the right things. You'll never see me on a BMW or Mercedes forum, even though I my views of those cars are quite clownish, I wouldn't bother wasting my valuable time clowning on clowns.

Maybe it has been discussed already but on Forbes:

15 New Cars To Avoid | Forbes

1. BMW 7 SeriesBMW’s flagship sedan seems to have lost its edge in recent years. It’s wrapped in languid styling and just doesn’t feel as sporty as it did in earlier renditions; an odd product lineup includes an expensive and not especially efficient gas-electric hybrid model. Consumer Reports takes the 7 Series to task for being “a ponderous, technology-laden vehicle with ungainly handling,” and is included in the publication’s lists of lowest-scoring cars, worst overall values and most expensive operating costs in its class. Not to pile on, but it also gets a rock-bottom resale value rating from ALG and a below average performance score from J.D. Power.

 

[Buddyroe]

The concept of a "Tesla Killer" is absurd.

1. The world is transitioning to EV's.

I really hope this is a joke. With less than 2% of automobile sales being EVs, no one could possibly say the world is transitioning to EVs. I hope it happens, and I believe it will one day, but, we're NOWHERE CLOSE to transitioning at this point. EVs are just beginning to get a foothold and most every person you meet will say they WILL NEVER OWN an electric car. Simply put, we have a long way to go. Most people aren't going to go through the aggravation that Tesla owners go through on a long trip - charging at people's houses, staying overnight where there is a charger because there is no supercharger around (when they otherwise would not have stayed), driving 50 miles out of the way to access a supercharger, etc. And non-Tesla EV owners can't even use their cars for long trips. The transition can not even START to begin until there are 10 times the number of charging stalls (not necessarily stations) as there are today and EVs can get at least 350 to 400 miles on a charge.

To boot, at least 50% of the sales of EVs may have never happened without the tax incentives. Just look at Georgia, EV sales have all but stopped since the GA tax rebate ended.

 

[Scott Ales]

I really hope this is a joke. With less than 2% of automobile sales being EVs, no one could possibly say the world is transitioning to EVs. I hope it happens, and I believe it will one day, but, we're NOWHERE CLOSE to transitioning at this point. EVs are just beginning to get a foothold and most every person you meet will say they WILL NEVER OWN an electric car. Simply put, we have a long way to go. Most people aren't going to go through the aggravation that Tesla owners go through on a long trip - charging at people's houses, staying overnight where there is a charger because there is no supercharger around (when they otherwise would not have stayed), driving 50 miles out of the way to access a supercharger, etc. And non-Tesla EV owners can't even use their cars for long trips. The transition can not even START to begin until there are 10 times the number of charging stalls (not necessarily stations) as there are today and EVs can get at least 350 to 400 miles on a charge.

To boot, at least 50% of the sales of EVs may have never happened without the tax incentives. Just look at Georgia, EV sales have all but stopped since the GA tax rebate ended.

Time is an interesting thing. We all have different perceptions of what a long or short time is. It took just 19 years from when the Wright Brothers first took flight to when the Atlantic was crossed with an airplane. I predict (not that it matters) we will see 50% of new car sales of fully electric cars within the next 10 years. But who really cares if it is 10, 20, or 30. The point is, once you go Electric you never go back. The conversion will happen amazingly fast once a few competitors come on board and start marketing traditionally. It wouldn't surprise me if Tesla starts a marketing plan once the M3 launches. And by then the 2008 Roadsters and 2012 Model S cars will be posting 300k-600k miles. That's going to get some attention. A 150k mile ICE car is one spun bearing away from being worth scrap each day you start it. There is an absolute army of buyers who will devour $30k-$40k new fully electric cars that can go 200 miles or more. Without incentives. When those cars are used and being offered for $15k-20k no one will even consider a ICE used car. Which will throw all the lease residuals for those in the toilet. It just compounds from there. I think you might be underestimating the resale market for these cars and how it will impact the market.

 

[gene]

I really hope this is a joke. With less than 2% of automobile sales being EVs, no one could possibly say the world is transitioning to EVs. I hope it happens, and I believe it will one day, but, we're NOWHERE CLOSE to transitioning at this point. EVs are just beginning to get a foothold and most every person you meet will say they WILL NEVER OWN an electric car. Simply put, we have a long way to go. Most people aren't going to go through the aggravation that Tesla owners go through on a long trip - charging at people's houses, staying overnight where there is a charger because there is no supercharger around (when they otherwise would not have stayed), driving 50 miles out of the way to access a supercharger, etc. And non-Tesla EV owners can't even use their cars for long trips. The transition can not even START to begin until there are 10 times the number of charging stalls (not necessarily stations) as there are today and EVs can get at least 350 to 400 miles on a charge.

To boot, at least 50% of the sales of EVs may have never happened without the tax incentives. Just look at Georgia, EV sales have all but stopped since the GA tax rebate ended.

I guess Georgia and California are very different places. Here in California I see at least 20 to 30 EV's per day here in Santa Barbara area. When I go to LA, there are so many I can't possibly keep count. Nearly every last person I know wants an EV but are waiting for Model 3, Leaf 2, or Bolt. I think in 2 or 3 years, at least here in California, anyone shopping for a new car will seriously consider an EV.

As far as your comments about chargers, etc. I put on 30,000 miles per year and go anywhere in the western states I want. rarely have to use anything other than a Supercharger.

Yep...different worlds Georgia and California.

 

[mmd]

To boot, at least 50% of the sales of EVs may have never happened without the tax incentives. Just look at Georgia, EV sales have all but stopped since the GA tax rebate ended.

Where can we see the Georgia EV sales? How much has it changed?

 

[Buddyroe]

Where can we see the Georgia EV sales? How much has it changed?

Georgia EV sales